Myanmar: The effects of the military coup
The recent military coup in Myanmar has demonstrated the challenges faced by fledgling democracies, with the country’s elected leader Aung San Suu Kyi and other members of her party being detained. This moment presents a crucial point in the countries future, with accusations of election fraud, escalating mass protests and a military, who has been accused of committing genocide, taking charge. The risks for domestic instability are high, as the country undergoes another transformation.
On the 1st February the military took back control of the country from the democratically elected National League for Democracy (NLD) party and issued a year-long state of emergency. Up until 2010, when the main military-backed party the Union Solidarity and Development Party (USDP) claimed victory in the first elections, the country was under military rule. During this election Aung San Suu Kyi was under house arrest, and it was widely condemned for corruption by both opposition parties and international bodies. Yet, in spite of this potentially contentious start, an increase in domestic reforms and, as a result, a development of international ties marked this period. These democratic reforms opened space for the landslide victory of the NLD in 2015, when the Union Election Commission (UEC) allowed, for the first time, local and international observers as election watchers.
The timing of the coup is significant in giving the military control of the country, as 2020 was another election year. In the November 2020 elections the NLD won almost eighty per cent of the elected seats, giving them a majority in both legislative chambers. This is in spite of the twenty-five per cent of unelected seats held by the military. The coup has come just before the first session of parliament after the election, which would have confirmed the election result by approving the NLD government. In this way, the coup stopped the new government being formed, instead enabling the military to retake control of the country.
Myanmar’s military government is attempting to fully discredit the results of the election and is, according to a senior member of the organisation, detaining election commission officials in night-time raids to ask them to provide evidence the November election was rigged. The Assistance Association of Political Prisoners has provided a list of those detained, which includes 20 UEC officials who they claim to have verified as being arrested in this process. General Min Aung Hlaing announced on TV after seizing power that ‘there was terrible fraud in the voter list during the democratic general election’, but as of yet no evidence has been offered and polling station observers claim nothing was amiss.
Both Aung San Suu Kyi and the Myanmar military have been marred with controversy over violence against Rohingya Muslims. The violence drove more than half a million Rohingya out of Myanmar in 2017, as the Myanmar military killed at least 6,700 Rohingya and burned entire villages to the ground. A report by the Human Rights Council in 2018 noted serious human rights violations, principally committed by the Myanmar security forces, in particular the military. U.N. investigators similarly noted that Myanmar’s military operation, led by the commander of the armed forces Min Aung Hlaing, included mass killings, gang rapes, widespread arson and was executed with “genocidal intent”. At the height of the campaign General Min Aung Hlaing, who is now in control of the country after the coup, said they were taking care of ‘unfinished business’.
Aung San Suu Kyi, who was awarded the Noble Peace Prize in 1991 and is the daughter of Myanmar’s independence hero General Aung San, was accused of doing nothing to stop the rape, murder and possible genocide by refusing to condemn the military. Her personal defence of the army at the ICJ hearing in the Hague further damaged her international reputation. Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh have expressed mixed reactions to the military coup, condemning the take-over, but also expressing that “we don’t feel sorry that she [Suu Kyi] is overthrown from power now”. There are fears that the repatriation process for the refugees may be stalled or halted by the coup, but also criticism that ‘the civilian government of Aung Sun Suu Kyi did nothing” during the violence (Sayed Ullah, Rohingya community leader).
Yet, despite international controversy surrounding Aung San Suu Kyi, the high domestic popularity of NLD and opposition to military-led governance has led to the eruption of mass protests. The first large scale protests were organised on 6th February, where approximately 200,000 people in Yangon called for the release of Aung Sun Suu Kyi and denounced the coup. These protests then spread to other cities around Myanmar, and on 8th February, in the national capital Nay Pyi Taw, riot police deployed water cannons on protesters for the first time. The reactions of some Myanmar citizens to the coup can be found in this video. On 9th February Mya Thwe Thwe Khaing was injured at a rally in Nay Pyi Taw, her wounds being consistent with live ammunition, two days before her 20th birthday. While doctors report two other protesters were also struck by live rounds, the police have denied using lethal force at that rally. Mya Thwe Thwe Khaing has become the first protester to die in the anti-coup demonstrations.
In an effort the control the protests the ruling junta, as well as arresting opposition figures have passed laws in an attempt to stop dissent. One law, passed 13th February, required people to report overnight visitors to their home and allowing security forces to detain suspects and search private property. Myanmar’s military has also altered existing privacy and security laws, giving it the power to detain people for longer and intercept communications. Human Rights Watch noted the military has proposed a new cyber-security law that would enable it to organise online censorship, block websites, order internet shutdowns, and arrest critics at noncompliant companies. As of 16th February, a total of 452 people have been arrested and detained, and this number is likely to increase, as the military cracks down on opposition.
The ability of protests to enact change is questionable and it will remain to be seen how the takeover unfolds further and whether it will increase in violence. The situation remains volatile and the future of Myanmar remains undetermined, the coup demonstrating the fragility of new democracies when faced with an powerful military establishment.
Image courtesy of Reuters, ©2021, some rights reserved.
