2019: A New Generation of Protest?
If you asked someone who follows the news to give one word describing foreign affairs in 2019, the word ‘protest’ would be a good bet. From Chile to Catalonia to Lebanon and Hong Kong, hundreds of thousands of people, the youth in particular, are taking to the streets demanding change, leading prominent outlets like the Washington Post to dub 2019 the ‘year of the protest’. However, protests and civil resistance have always accompanied politics and governance, be it the Protestant Reformation, the Stonewall riots or Tiananmen Square. The Post giving 2019 such a label consequently implies that this year’s events somehow constitute a watershed moment in national politics. But to what extent are they distinct from activism in the past? A comparative look at the situation in Chile and Lebanon suggests that this year’s protesters are carrying the world’s protesting legacy into the modern, digital age.
Though taking place on the other side of the world, what unites these movements is that both were unleashed after government increasing the cost of specific pocketbook items - in Chile a government announcement that metro prices would rise by 30 pesos ($0.04) were the catalyst, and in Lebanon the spark that set off the fire was a proposed 20-cent daily charge on WhatsApp.
For the protestors, the seemingly small-scale, targeted policies represent something bigger : an elitist and irresponsible ruling class out of touch with the very people they are supposed to represent. In an interview with the Financial Times published on 17 October, Chile’s billionaire president Sebastián Piñera described Chile as an ‘oasis’ in South America, pointing to the country’s economic growth and stable democracy. On October 18, bands of student protestors seized numerous stations of the Santiago Metro Network rebelling against the fare hikes announced earlier that month, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency and curfews later that night.
On a surface level, Mr Piñera is right about the performance of the Chilean economy. The proportion of the population living in poverty (US $4 per day) decreased from 31% to 4% between 2000 and 2017, and the country’s GDP growth is higher than that of Latin America as a whole.
Increasing metro fares for many Chileans, however, epitomizes the problems of unjust distributions unjust distribution of income and social spending. And it should come as no surprise that this sentiment resonates strongly with students - a 2017 OECD study found that Chile’s average university tuition costs rank second in the world behind only the US. Only 15% of students matriculate at public universities, and there is a 237% annual wage disparity between those who graduate from university and those who do not.
The disillusionment with leadership follows a similar vein in Lebanon. The New York Times recently reported that Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri gave a $16 million gift to a South African model he met at a luxury resort in the Seychelles in 2013. Austerity measures designed to rescue the Lebanese economy however have severely impacted the middle class, as the richest 1% earns a tenth of the country’s national income according to the World Inequality Lab. Mid-October’s severe wildfires also heightened frustration of the public as Lebanon was unable to fight them without international assistance due to the lack of maintenance, as people noted that the riot vehicles used instead were fully maintained.
The WhatsApp tax that was proposed a few days later was canceled within hours, but the simmering anger of the Lebanese people was unleashed.
Chile and Lebanon are only a couple of examples of public backlash against wallet issues. India is currently grappling with rising onion prices. New taxes on hookahs in Saudi Arabia ignited social media, and this in a country where protesting against the authorities is practically unthinkable. And this is without even mentioning arguably the most noteworthy protests of the year : the protest still ongoing in Hong Kong.
Yet, there is precedent for the world experiencing years filled with heightened activism and protest. The 1960s come to mind, especially the year 1968. In the US, just about every political issue was a matter of contention, especially race and the Vietnam War. Student occupation protests in Paris against consumerism and capitalism morphed into a two-month period of civil unrest that brought Charles de Gaulle’s France to a complete standstill in what the French now simply refer to as ‘mai 68’. Soviet troops invaded Czechoslovakia in August of the same year in an effort to stop the Prague Spring. The Beatles clearly picked the right moment to release their hit song ‘Revolution’.
1968 is a valuable point of comparison for this years’ event because an overarching theme is a discontented youth. The French protests for example were a cultural movement before a political one - a famous anecdote is that in March, Le Monde’s Pierre Viansson-Ponté wrote that the country’s young people were too bored to join the protests happening in the US and Germany. Revolution became a euphoric release against the paternalistic society led by the conservative de Gaulle.
In Chile and Lebanon today, the new generation is also the face of the movement. It was Chilean students whose fare-dodging protests sparked the ensuing unrest. A social media app is at the centre of the movement in Lebanon.
Part of the prominent role of the youth in today’s protests is a result of demographics. 41% of the global population is less than 24 years old. In the global South this statistic is even more pronounced - in India one million people turn 18 every month. Industrialized regions like Europe on the other hand have ageing populations, with 16% of Europeans being over 65.
Moreover, it should come as no surprise that issues of economic inequality are a source of grievance for the youth. They are growing up in a world still recovering from the 2008 global financial crisis; recession and austerity measures have shaped their experience, and as a result, decent jobs and education will have to be a priority for governments. Otherwise, transgressions like al-Hariri’s gift will logically strike a chord.
What really sets today’s youth apart from the previous generation, however, is that they are connected. Due to the internet’s globalization especially people all over the world are able to educate themselves and be exposed to both alternative ideas of society and rights like free speech and a living wage, increasingly seen as universal.
Technology, in particular social media also changes the very character and operationalization of protests. The hit-song Baby Shark has become an anthem in Lebanon after a video of protestors singing it to a distraught baby went viral. It also enables leaderless movements, making it difficult for the authorities to bring an end to unrest. When the Hong Kong demonstrations started in June, Joshua Wong, the area’s most high-profile activist, was in jail. Movements also increasingly borrow from each other - protestors in Catalonia occupied the Barcelona airport, a tactic borrowed from Hong Kong, and subsequently acknowledged by Catalan flag-waving Hong Kongers vowing to fight for freedom together.
What these new trends mean for the success of these revolts is more complicated, however. Without firm leadership for example, there is greater risk of protests turning violent, and this makes it easier for authorities to justify a crackdown - in Hong Kong and Chile this has certainly been the case. Harvard political scientist Erica Chenoweth suggests that this is a crucial determinant of the outcome of civil resistance, as protests that turn violent are 50% more likely to fail.
There will be more years with a larger-than-normal number of protests like 2019, and issues like economic inequality will remain prominent motivations for social activism. However, what Chile and Lebanon, like other protests around the world demonstrate is a change in power relations between authorities and the people. The extent to which protestors are to mobilize people around what might seem small issues and instrumentalize underlying discontent is something we have not seen before, and it’s led by young people.
2019 may not be the landmark year of the protest, but it is the year that has brought protest into the 21st century.
Image courtesy of C64-92 via Flickr images.
