2024: The Year of Elections
This year is set to be full of coinciding elections where roughly half of the world’s population is expected to cast their ballots. More than 76 countries are scheduled to hold their elections, so many that experts are coining it a ‘super-election year.’ Two of the more prominent elections have already occurred: Taiwan elected a new president, while keeping the same ruling party, and Bangladesh re-elected its incumbent president. But, of course, of these 76 elections, not all are ‘free and fair’ and many are not likely to make major shifts to the government. One such example is in Russia, where the election is not expected to loosen Vladimir Putin’s grip on power. Here is a brief rundown on some of the most notable elections.
European Union
The E.U.’s 27 member states are set to vote on the continental bloc’s next parliament in early June. The European Council on Foreign Relations predicts that anti-European populists are likely to top the polls in nine member states and come second or third in an additional nine. Many polls are predicting that far-right parties will make substantial gains in the election, likely influencing important E.U. policy on issues such as climate change, immigration, and E.U. membership enlargement. Perhaps most importantly, the parliament will select who will be the new president of the European Commission. The Commission’s Current President, Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen has yet to say whether she intends to stay in her position. Over 400 million Europeans are eligible to vote, making this the second largest election this year.
United States of America
Americans will head to the polls on 5 November. The election will almost surely be a rematch between the candidates from the 2020 election, Joe Biden and Donald Trump. Although polls this early in the year can be unreliable, either conclusion that the election makes. Americans will vote on not only will the presidency, but also every seat in the House of Representatives and one-third of Senate seats. It is probable that the Republicans will recapture the Senate and the Democrats will recapture the House, but a sense of uncertainty surrounds the entirety of this year’s election.
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom’s election, which is likely to happen sometime in the latter half of the year, could be the most important general election in Europe. It is expected that voters will elect a Labour Party government as the party is leading in polls by high margins. The election could have consequences over several polarising topics, such as decisions over immigration, the Russo-Ukrainian war, conflict in Gaza, and economic policy, to name a few.
Mexico
Mexico’s general election is being held on 2 June and will be selecting a new president for a six-year term. For the first time in Mexico’s history, the two leading presidential candidates are both women, Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo of the Morena Party and Xóchitl Gálvez of the National Action Party. As of now, Sheinbaum has a comfortable lead as a member of the incumbent party. Current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, also known as AMLO, has been successful in securing a falling poverty rate, slowing inflation, and a growing economy. However, criminal violence and its strain on Mexico-U.S. relations remains a massive issue for AMLO and the next president, whomever she may be.
Indonesia
Indonesia will hold its general election on 14 February. A huge logistical feat, the country will conduct the election over just a single day, with over 200 million residents and 1.75 million members of the diaspora voting. As Indonesia’s incumbent president, Joko Widodo or ‘Jokowi,’ is not allowed to run for a third term Anies Baswedan, Prabowo Subianto, and Ganjar Pranowo have emerged as the leading presidential candidates. There is no consensus on the frontrunner, with multiple reports predicting different candidates. Anies was previously the governor of Jakarta, a position he won in 2017 after a campaign full of identity politics where he gained support with Islamist groups. Prabowo, the son-in-law of Indonesia’s former dictator, Suharto, is making his third run for resident with the president’s son as his running-mate after losing to Jokowi twice. Prabowo displays fierce nationalism and has been under scrutiny for human rights violations during his military career. Ganjar served at the governor of Central Java and has made strides in improving infrastructure, but has alienated voters after opposing Israel’s participation in the under-20 FIFA World Cup in 2023. As the world’s third-largest democracy and a major economic power in Southeast Asia, Indonesia will have major political decisions to make.
India
In the world’s largest election this year, over 900 million people are set to vote in India between April and May. Incumbent prime minister, Narendra Modi, and his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) are likely to win their third election in a row and will avoid needing to rely on a coalition to govern. In December of last year, the BJP won multiple elections, indicating that the BJP party’s message still resonates. However, if Modi and his government were to be re-elected, there are many questions surrounding the integrity of India’s democracy and its future.
2024 is a year that will see major political decisions play out; this will prove important after 2023, which was the 17th consecutive year in which global freedom declined, according to U.S. watchdog, Freedom House. It is also important to note that of the 76 countries holding elections, some, such as Brazil and Turkey, are not holding general elections, but rather local or municipal elections. 2024 will decide to what extent democracy will prevail and will see important decisions being made on how the future of our globe progresses.
Image courtesy of Suyash Dwivedi via Wikimedia, ©2023. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
