A Crisis on a Crisis: War and A Global Food Shortage

Apr 7

Apr 7 A Crisis on a Crisis: War and A Global Food Shortage

Over the past month, the war in Ukraine has had devastating effects, causing massive destruction, displacement and loss. On top of this, the war’s effects are being felt across the world, especially related to food security. Resulting food shortages and rising prices are having massive consequences: the world is currently facing a global food crisis.

The invasion of Ukraine by Russia has put massive amounts of pressure on the world’s food supply. Both countries are important contributors to the world’s food habits, as they normally produce roughly 20 percent of global corn, 30 percent of wheat, and around 80 percent of sunflower seed oil. Alongside southwestern Russia, Ukraine has been nicknamed “Europe’s breadbasket”. However, these food sources have been obliterated in the last month. As a result of a smaller global, prices are drastically increasing. Over the last month, wheat has increased by 21 percent and barley by 33 percent, with the former hitting an all-time high price. This has happened on top of already high food prices from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Additionally, businesses are generally avoiding purchasing products from Russia, as many want to avoid the logistics of travelling and trading near a warzone, and fear the potential sanctions it may involve. The subsequent reduction in food supplies as a consequence of these factors has ultimately created a worldwide shortage.

As well as reduced supplies from Russia and Ukraine, the shortage of food has also been exasperated by a lack of fertilisers. Russia produces large quantities of several key nutrients used in the production of fertilisers, including phosphate and potassium. Export shortages as a result of the war mean that prices have significantly increased, with certain fertilisers increasing by over 40 percent. This has been compounded by the drastic increase in the prices of natural gases, which are core ingredients in nitrogen-based fertilisers. This has meant that for many fertiliser producers outside the warzone it has been too expensive to continue operations. The consequences of this are vast. Over 50 percent of the world’s population consumes food which has involved fertilisers in the growth process. If they are removed from the production of some crops, yields around the world could decrease by half.

These food shortages and rising prices have been massively detrimental to international aid and non-governmental organisations, especially those who help to relieve food shortages around the world, such as the World Food Programme (WFP). The WFP tended to buy over 50 percent of its grain from Ukraine. The WFP, which was feeding over 125 million people across the world before the invasion, has had to greatly cut down their supplies due to these rising fuel, shipping and food costs. As a result of this, the WFP director, David Beasley, stated that aid agencies are being forced to “take food from the hungry to feed the starving,”.

The impacts on many developing countries across the world has been detrimental, greatly exasperating existing food crises. Grains from Ukraine have been essential in providing food to other countries facing conflicts, including Sudan, Afghanistan and Yemen. As a result of the war, the price of food in Yemen has doubled in the last year, making more than half of the population requiring food assistance. This is only to increase with the current situation. Meanwhile, several countries in the Maghreb also heavily rely on wheat from Ukraine, and have been feeling the impact of shortages and increasing prices. This has been amplified by to a pre-existing shortage due to a major drought, which increased their dependence on foreign imports.

Confronted with shortages and rising prices, various countries are turning inwards. For example, Indonesia has greatly tightened export restrictions on palm oil, a key ingredient in cooking, cosmetics, and some packaged goods including chocolate, which it is one of the top world producers of. Meanwhile, Egypt has banned the exports of beans, lentils, wheat and flour as a result of the food supply worries. Ultimately, such actions could also result in less food for those who are in need around the world.

These rising prices do not only mean that the required food aid costs more and there is not enough supply to meet the demand, but it could also be enough to push those facing food insecurity over the edge. April 2021, roughly one in seven adults in the US faced food insecurity in a period of 30 days. More people could be forced into the vicious cycle of hunger and dependence in the near future.

With the Russia-Ukraine war still strongly persisting and no end in sight, the global food crisis looks to remain. Even when war does eventually come to an end, its impacts on the global food supply will persist for some time after, including through the lack of fertilisers reducing harvests that are yet to come. This crisis appears to be one who’s detrimental effects will be felt around the world for some time to come.