Capital Chaos: How a regional power struggle has triggered elections and a government resignation
Ever since the collapse of Spain’s two party dominated system, with the rise of Podemos and latterly Ciudadanos and Vox, Spanish politics has been fluid and febrile. The most recent movement on the political stage has prompted tremors amongst the entirety of Spanish politics, and a true political earthquake in the nation’s capital Madrid.
This convulsion began with Los Ciudadanos, a centrist party, who had as recently as March 2019 been the 3rd largest party nationally but who were annihilated in the general elections later that year. Despite this, in regional legislatures Ciudadanos still has significant power. Ciudadanos’ leader Ines Arrimandias, in an attempt to pivot her party further towards the left, attempted to bring down the government in the province of Murcia by removing her party from it and calling a vote of no confidence. The Murcian regional government was previously a coalition between the establishment right wing party, El Partido Popular (PP), Ciudadanos and a few independents. Ciudadanos’ decision to resign from government and call a vote of no confidence therefore seemed to auger the collapse of right-wing government in Murcia.
Murcia is not the only regional government whose PP-led government relied upon the votes of Ciudadanos, Madrid the capital city and a PP stronghold did as well. Anticipating a similar move by Ciudadanos in Madrid the city’s PP leader Isabel Ayuso called snap elections. This move would cause an isolated regional issue to burst into the national political scene, as Pablo Iglesias, leader of the Far left Podemos party and vice president of the Government, decided to stand down from government to run for the City’s Presidency. On hearing of the snap election, Máriam Martínez-Bascuñán, a political scientist at the Autonomous University of Madrid said it was. “an all or nothing gamble by the conservatives who may well need to rely on far-right support”.
Why did Pablo Iglesias do this considering resigning from government to run for a regional post is a demotion? Podemos his party were threatened with being wiped out by their coalition partners in the national government the PSOE and the rival far left grouping, Más Madrid, led by former members of Podemos. Polls had also indicated that the right wing would win the elections, with a hard right alliance between Ayuso firmly on the extreme end of the PP and Vox. There is however, also a far more personal aspect to Iglesias’ decision, since his political rise almost ten years ago he has been subject to threats and abuse with his family practically trapped in their Madrid home. Iglesias would try to escape this isolation by going to Asturias, in northern Spain, last summer. This was however to no avail, as Iglesias would have to leave Asturias after two days due to the abuse they faced. Therefore, personal reasons and a desire to retreat from the harsh frontline of Spanish politics played a part in Iglesias’ decision, not just a desire to save Podemos from destruction in the city where the party had started.
Iglesias’ entry into the race led to an intensification of rhetoric from Ayuso with one of her most virulent statements being “When they call you a fascist, you know you are on the right side”. Ayuso only added fuel to the fire by stating that the elections were a choice between “communism and liberty”. Iglesias’ battle with Ayuso is not the only battle of personalities in the election either. Perhaps the more fractious one will be between Iglesias and his former number two in Podemos Inigo Errejon who broke away two years ago to from the Más Madrid (More Madrid) party. Más Madrid and Podemos have little to separate them in terms of policy, but personal enmity between their two leaders was significant enough to stop them uniting to from a joint list of candidates. Iglesias looks short of a miracle unlikely to succeed, although if this tilt is his last in frontline politics the future of the Spanish left and Podemos will be very uncertain.
As well as Iglesias’ stunning decision to stand for election in Madrid, the greater fallout from Ciudadanos vote of no confidence in Murcia has been the further erosion of them as a political force. The Murcian vote of no confidence which set all these events in motion did eventually happen. However, instead of soliciting the fall of PP Government in Murcia, half of Ciudadanos delegates defected to the PP and with the support of some former members of Vox the PP survived the vote 23 -22. In addition, to this Castilla y Leon’s Ciudadanos’ delegates voted with the PP to stop another vote of no confidence in the PP government of that region. The lack of leadership and the myriad of defections seems to point to Ciudadanos being “mortally wounded”, to use words of its leader in Valencia. If so, a collapse of this more moderate right-wing will grant new opportunity to the leader of the PP Pablo Casado. Although to gain power he will need far right Vox votes, he seems to be attempting to stay clear of an official alliance with them in order to appeal to more centrist voters.
In Spanish regional elections a party requires 5% of the vote to get seats in the chamber. This was another reason why Iglesias thought it so important to stand for Podemos in Madrid, as they were close to slipping below that precipitous number. The latest polls in Madrid show the PP taking votes from Ciudadanos which has collapsed to below 5%. In any event even if Ciudadanos have an unlikely resurgence of popularity the tide seems set against them. The Spanish right which had previously been split in three may only be divided between the PP and Vox.
The decision now rests in Pablo Casado leader of the PP’s hands as to whether he moves to the right to try and contain Vox, or towards the centre to dominate the ground Ciudadanos has left behind. In either case Ciudadanos’ last gasp of political power has brought about the end of one of Spanish politic’ leaders, at least on a national level, and a consolidation on the right of the political spectrum.
Spanish politics, as it has always been since the end of two-party politics, is never short of action.
Banner image courtesy of PP Comunidad de Madrid, ©2020, some rights reserved.
