Energy Politics on the Nile: Conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia over the Construction of the Renaissance Dam
The Nile River is one of the longest and most iconic bodies of water in the world. It spans 11 countries, from the Great Lakes regions and Lake Tana in Ethiopia to the Mouth of the Nile in Egypt. Its significance to the culture, politics and economics of the countries it runs through are crucial. It is a source of transport for shipping, a source of fish and seafood and most importantly a source of water; especially important in the desert regions of Sudan and Egypt. The agricultural production of these countries is tied to the Nile and dependent on the seasonal water levels to grow crops and produce the food needed to feed those countries. Approximately 95% of Egypt's population lives and farms on the banks of the Nile. It also has massive historical and symbolic significance for Egypt and for the other countries it flows through. The Ancient Egyptian civilization was built on and sustained by the Nile and has become synonymous with Egyptian power and prestige.
Recently political controversy surrounding the Nile has arisen. Specifically, a long dispute between Ethiopia and Egypt concerning the construction and filling of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), has flared with some scholars and political analysts fearful of an impending conflict. Why is the construction of a dam such a politically charged issue? Because energy politics in East Africa is a major issue that politicians and policy makers have to contend with and a determinant of foreign relations in the region.
For many years there have been disagreements between countries sharing the Nile. A 1929 colonial treaty, later renewed in 1959, gave Egypt and to a lesser degree Sudan total rights to the river and a power of veto over any construction efforts made further upstream. This marginalises other countries upstream from any decisions concerning the river and has caused tensions between them and Egypt. In 2011 Ethiopia decided to begin construction on the GERD. The dam is being constructed on the Blue Nile, which runs from Lake Tana in Ethiopia and supplies the majority of the Nile's water. It constitutes a major investment on behalf of the Ethiopians, costing $4.7 billion (£ 3.5 billion), and is projected to become a primary source of hydroelectric energy for the Ethiopians, who are currently suffering from a lack of electricity supply. The dam is truly massive, approximately the size of Greater London, and is expected to take 6 years to fill.
Therein lies the controversy: Egypt is fearful that filling the dam will impact its main freshwater source and put a country almost solely dependent on this water at risk. In the long run the dam does not restrict water flow but the filling process will result in a decrease over the 6 year period. Egypt has demanded that before the dam can begin being filled a formal agreement must be negotiated regarding the speed of filling, how the dam will be operated during droughts, when rainfall is low, and whether the agreement and its dispute resolution mechanisms should be legally binding. Ethiopia sees their demands as unreasonable with the historic Egyptian domination of the Nile; clearly creating resentment. As a result, Ethiopia has gone ahead with construction and filling regardless.
Recently the AU, UN and USA have weighed into the issue to mediate between Egypt and Ethiopia. However, so far these efforts have been fruitless in alleviating tensions with no agreement being met between Sudan, Ethiopia and Egypt at recent talks. The likelihood of war is a contentious question. This issue is at the heart of Egyptian and Ethiopian relations and central to the domestic politics of both countries. President of Egypt Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has warned that any measure would be taken in protecting Egypt’s water rights, while Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has claimed that nothing will stop the construction of the dam. Ultimately the fact that the US has been asked to intervene by both parties is evidence that the situation is dire and could spell catastrophe for the region.
What will become of this situation? For now, it is unresolved but talks and meditation efforts continue. Time will tell if this spirals into greater conflict, but it is safe to say that such a conflict would be devastating. With so many countries having vested interests in the Nile, including all the countries it runs through and indeed the global community relying on the Suez Canal (situated at the mouth of Nile) for shipping, a war that brings in so many actors with such key interests is sure to be catastrophic. Therefore, policy makers and political actors in Africa and across the globe must be wary of this issue and make substantial effort to avoid disaster.
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