EU Aid for Ukraine & Hungarian Opposition
European support for Ukraine and the semblance of a united European front amid continued Russian aggression were tested earlier this year when Hungary’s Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán nearly blocked a new aid package to support Ukraine. Opposition from Orbán, Putin’s closest ally in the EU, had been the primary obstacle to the signing of a 50 billion euro aid package that aimed to support Ukraine through the end of 2027. The EU package would not have been passed with Hungary’s veto; however, European Union leaders were eventually able to reach a deal in unanimous agreement after Orbán was persuaded to drop such opposition.
The roots of Hungary’s opposition lie in its long-time alliance with Russia and resistance to the enforcement of EU rules in member states’ domestic policies. The country’s tumultuous relationship with the EU has been defined by clashes over policies concerning the rule of law, corruption, and minority rights. The European Commission, meant to enforce the application of EU rules and principles in its member states, has criticised Prime Minister Orbán’s domestic policies that have eroded democratic protections and perpetuated corruption through diverting bloc funds to benefit himself and his allies. Orbán has rejected these criticisms and instead claimed that the EU has tried to impose ‘Western values on Hungary that run counter to his vision of his nation’s conservative Christian identity’. As the EU’s closest—and only—ally to Russia, Orbán has stated on accounts that he believes that Russia is not a threat to Europe and has therefore hindered most EU decisions regarding Ukraine, primarily the imposing of sanctions against Russia, which would require the unanimous vote of the Union’s 27 member states. Orbán has additionally insisted that Hungary’s foreign policy is ‘his own prerogative’, and he will not be pressured to act in accordance with EU policies he does not agree with.
Hungary has been punished for its accounts of corruption and failure to uphold democratic principles through the EU freezing funds that Hungary depends on receiving. The rocky relationship between the EU and Hungary has only grown deeper since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2020, and more recently so with Hungary’s threat to veto the establishment of the aid package. Stakes were high for the EU regarding the agreement of the aid package, as if leaders failed to agree on the long-term support for Ukraine, it would have undermined the Union’s credibility and front of unity. Hungary’s isolation within the Union would also have been further solidified. EU leaders thus threatened strong efforts to make Orbán reverse his decision and lift his veto against the aid package to Ukraine, such as through a strategy outlined by Brussels that would target Hungary’s economic weaknesses, drive collapses in investor confidence and permanently shut all EU funding to the country. As described by Mujtaba Rahman, the Europe director of the consultancy Eurasia Group, ‘This is Europe telling Viktor Orbán “enough is enough; it’s time to get in line. You may have a pistol, but we have the bazooka”’.
Unsurprisingly, economically vulnerable Hungary backed down in its opposition to the €50bn aid package. Furthermore, EU leaders were able to win over Orbán with three additions to the outline of the package, including an annual report by the European Commission regarding the implementation of the aid package, a debate at the Union leaders’ level on the implementation of the package, as well as, if necessary, a review in two years’ time by the Commission of the new budget according to latest drafts of European Council conclusions. These additional requirements to the outline of the aid package, however, more so acted as a means for Orbán to feel he has a foot in the door regarding EU decision-making.
The €50bn aid package was officially approved in unanimous agreement on Thursday, February 1st. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy responded saying he was ‘grateful’ to EU leaders for approving the support package and tweeted that ‘It is very important that the decision was made by all 27 leaders, which once again proves strong EU unity’, adding that ‘Continued EU financial support for Ukraine will strengthen long-term economic and financial stability, which is no less important than military assistance and sanctions pressure on Russia’. With Ukraine currently facing one of its most difficult moments since Russia’s full-scale invasion, and with US aid being held up, EU unity is more essential than ever. Europe must additionally prepare for the possibility of a second Trump presidency in which European leaders would no longer be able to count on US support. The EU must therefore maintain a united front to support Ukraine against Russia’s continued brutal aggression.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
