Exposing the Cracks: The War in Ukraine’s “Interruption” of Global Stability Since 1945
Yuval Noah Harari, Israeli historian and author of Sapiens, recently appeared on a TED Talk to discuss the war in Ukraine and its placement in the broader history of global conflict. Russia’s invasion, he argued, disrupted the general trend of overall global stability and peace between global “superpowers” that was enjoyed since the end of the second World War.
Harari’s analysis, while compelling, depends on a worldview in which peace is determined by the world’s most powerful nations, particularly in the West. It is pragmatic and partially true that the choices and actions of countries such as Russia, the United States, and China have a huge effect on the stability of other nations. At the same time, it is strange for a historian such as Harari to ignore long-standing conflicts between Israel and Palestine, wars in Afghanistan and Iran, and human rights crises in Yemen and China in his assertion that the world has been generally peaceful since the end of World War II. What Harari does highlight is that the world today is exponentially more interconnected and ‘globalised’ than it was in the mid-1900s, and that wars such as the one in Ukraine stand to disrupt international relations and the global economy more than we realise.
Harari correctly indicates that the invasion of Ukraine changed trends in the spending of European Nations. The World Bank reports that before February, the military expenditure of most countries in the European Union had been steadily decreasing since 1960 and reached its lowest amount in 2015. Spending increased during the pandemic and it spiked once more within the first few days of Russia’s offensive. Germany doubled its budget, which prompted other nations to increase theirs, creating a chain effect resulting in increased militarisation and vigilance across Europe.
The increase in military spending also places a halt on other important economic and social measures which are already greatly disrupted by war. Without money to spend on climate change measures, free healthcare, and better education, trends in global health stand to decrease even more. Pollutants released into the atmosphere during military campaigns will not be removed as efficiently through government measures, resulting in health issues for communities in the future along with the deaths and injuries caused by conflict.
The use of artificial intelligence for military purposes is another factor to consider in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Proposals to limit and monitor the use of AI and defuse the ‘AI Arms Race’ between China and the United States are now being forgotten as cyber measures are being implemented against the Russian army. Even though these measures are effective in fighting the Russian incursion, they may also bring us closer to a future AI Cold War rather than encouraging nations to demilitarize Artificial Intelligence and robotics.
Despite the potential detriments to global stability that come with Russia’s invasion, there are also many benefits to recognising the increasing interconnectedness of today’s world. If Russian President Vladimir Putin’s plan was to divide Western countries over Ukraine’s petition to enter NATO, his goal has not yet been accomplished. Even Switzerland (famously neutral) is cooperating with Germany in support of Ukraine and the placement of sanctions onto the Russian government indicate that Western countries are prepared to stand together in opposition to Russia. Whilst the true efficacy of sanctions has been questioned - as they have created spikes in oil and gas prices - Western countries are still standing in solidarity with Ukraine and with each other as the world weathers the consequences of Russia’s actions.
The world stands to learn a lot of lessons from this war. Putin’s attempt to annex and colonise Ukraine has only highlighted that Ukrainians are their own people and Ukraine its own country. In recognising Ukraine’s agency, the political spectrum between nationalism and liberalism has folded, showing that the fundamental idea behind many of our governments and constitutions is that of freedom for all citizens. There is a reason to be afraid of the future, and of the many devastating events and losses that are yet to come from this war. But by creating a united front in this globalised and connected world, standing against the violent and aggressive actions of one powerful individual, we place ourselves on the right side of history and hopefully make our future just a little more secure.
Image: Creative Commons license, under public domain.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
