Geopolitics Surrounding the Return of the Taliban
On Sunday, August 15, Kabul fell into chaos as residents, diplomats, and contractors swarmed the airport hoping to escape the city before the Taliban seized complete control of it. Two major cities had fallen the day before, Mazar-e Sharif and Jalalabad, but US and Afghan officials were still operating under the assumption that the Taliban wouldn’t take Kabul for months after the US pulled troops out of the country. As President Ashraf Ghani fled the country without informing his aids and American officials abandoned the US embassy in a panic, even the Taliban was surprised at the speed in which the takeover was complete.
The fall of Kabul to the Taliban presents a dire threat to Afghan citizens. Many Kabul residents immediately began painting over advertisements and posters depicting women, preparing for the takeover of the fundamentalist Taliban. The consequences of Taliban rule in Afghanistan are not only confined to its borders, however. Neighbouring countries and former allies of the Afghan government now face a new and uncertain threat.
India, a supporter of the US-backed regime in Kabul, fears that the Taliban’s return to power could make Afghanistan a breeding ground for terrorists. In the 1990s, when the Taliban ruled over Afghanistan, many Pakistani jihadist groups ran training camps in the area. New Delhi is fearful of Afghanistan again becoming a haven for such groups. The takeover has placed power in the hands of a government that is more closely aligned with Pakistan, raising tensions between the two rivals. Indian officials claim that the Taliban’s victory will promote radical ideology in the area and embolden terrorist activity by Pakistan. Specifically, Indian officials say this could strengthen Jarish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, two extremist groups that are largely based in Pakistan and are blamed for the 2008 attack on Mumbai. Moreover, India has spent $3 billion on the American-installed government, building schools, training Afghan officers, and giving thousands of scholarships. The swift fall of the Afghan government serves as a humiliation to India, in addition to a security dilemma. India met with Taliban officials for the first time in Qatar on August 31st. New Delhi said that it voiced its concern that “Afghanistan's soil should not be used for anti-Indian activities and terrorism in any manner.”
There is also the possibility that Afghanistan under Taliban rule could be a training base for Islamist extremist groups operating in Kashmir, a disputed region that Pakistan and India have fought two wars over. Anger toward India in Kashmir has grown in recent years ever since the Indian government withdrew the region’s semiautonomous status. In 1989, when Afghan guerrillas defeated Soviet troops, Kashmir staged an explosive rebellion against Indian control, with many of the rebels trained in Afghanistan. Experts say the crackdown on dissent after Prime Minister Modi revoked Kashmir’s semiautonomous status creates a stifling environment that can breed insurgency and create space for foreign militant groups. Inspiration by the Taliban insurgents could magnify already tense relations between India and Kashmir.
Another potential security development that may evolve out of the Taliban’s return to power stems from China’s prolonged support of the terrorist group. China’s fears about an insurgency in the Uyghur-dominated Xinjian region has incentivised the country to support the Taliban in return for their guarantee that a Uyghur fundamentalist group does not operate in Afghanistan. Experts believe that China wants to bring Afghanistan into its Belt and Road Initiative by building roads, power plants, and pipelines that will develop the country’s infrastructure. The takeover of the Taliban is a win for China, as the government will no doubt welcome the Chinese investment and support. Here lies another security risk for India, who is a part of the “Quad” with the US, India, Australia, and Japan, which are all aligned against an aggressive China.
In addition, the rise of the Taliban creates a new security risk for the US, who has used India as a block against Chinese domination in the region. A researcher at the Carnegie Endowment explains that “the U.S. has unintentionally weakened India’s ability to be of assistance to us in the maritime space.” The security dilemmas that are surfacing after the withdrawal of American forces in Afghanistan demonstrates how the threat from China spans multiple borders and must be considered amongst a host of political decisions.
The return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan has created new geopolitical developments in South Asia and advanced security threats on multiple fronts. The potential for Taliban-inspired terrorist groups finding haven in Afghanistan and Pakistan spells trouble for India, who is already facing turmoil in Kashmir. India’s weakened influence in the region is a worry for Washington, who has hoped to use India as a buffer against Chinese domination in the Indo-Pacific Region. As India realises the security threat that is posed by a Taliban ruled Afghanistan, officials cannot but help to place blame on the US for leaving Afghanistan in this position. Undoubtedly, a Taliban government will reveal new security challenges not only to states in geographic proximity, but any government that has interest in the geopolitics of Asia.
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