Is the Labour Party’s Century-long Dominance of Welsh Politics Coming to an End?
The Welsh electorate is politically insane. That is if you define insanity as the act of repeating the same thing over and over but continue to expect a different result, as Albert Einstein said. Because, at every single general election since 1918 - and there have been 26 of them - the Labour Party has always won the largest number of seats in Wales. Moreover, they have also won the most seats in every Assembly election since its formation in 1999 and have equally been at the core of every Welsh Government during the same period. Put together, a depiction of the strongest of political strongholds emerges, perhaps even a portrait of a democratic one-party state. But, as Labour aims to make it 27 in a row on December 12th, is the unbreachable fortification that is the Labour Party’s dominance of Welsh politics finally crumbling?
Some evidence seems to suggest so. At the European elections held in May, Labour not only failed to win but also failed to finish second. Indeed, its third-place finish on a mere 15.3% of the vote behind both the Brexit Party and Plaid Cymru could be classified as the greatest Welsh political upset ever given Labour’s customary preponderance. Furthermore, early opinion polls suggest that the 2019 general election will be the tightest battle on Welsh soil in generations with several Labour seats vulnerable to attack from all sides of the political spectrum. A recently published Welsh Political Barometer, for example, indicates that up to 10 Labour seats – that’s 25% of all seats up for grabs in Wales – could switch hands leaving Labour on only 18 seats, just one ahead of the Conservatives. Granted, the European election only had a dire turnout of 37.1% and a different opinion poll suggests that Labour will lose merely 4 seats on 39% of the vote at the upcoming election, yet the very variability to this data strongly suggests that the tectonic plates of Welsh politics are shifting ever so slightly. This might not be the earthquake itself, but in a political landscape untouched for a century, these challenges and fluctuations might constitute the first rumblings of that impending tremor.
Before reasoning why this challenge to Labour’s supremacy is occurring and probing its implications for the UK and beyond, it is first necessary to historicise the roots of Labour’s dominance in Wales. From the dawn of the Industrial Revolution to its dusk at the feet of Thatcherism, Wales and its booming industries were inextricable: its coal mines carved into the landscape, the steelwork chimneys breathing purpose into the souls of the people. The Welsh, as a consequence, were predominantly of working-class status and considering that the Labour Party was born as the party of the working class, Wales and the Labour party were a perfect match. Furthermore, socialism has strong roots in Wales: Robert Owen, the man who coined the very phrase, was Welsh and the first instance of the red flag flying was in Merthyr, south Wales. In this sense, the marriage between Wales and the Labour party was somewhat inevitable, and this historic bond has remained intractable ever since.
Until now. So why all of a sudden is the Labour party’s position at the pinnacle of the Welsh political hierarchy under threat? One analysis is that it isn’t associated so much with Labour but rather with the strengthening of opposing parties. The Conservatives are becoming less toxic in south Wales as the generation scarred by the Miners’ strike and Thatcher’s response dwindles in numbers; Plaid Cymru, previously perceived as the party of the Welsh speakers, is placing independence at the forefront of its agenda, the promise of change encapsulating a tired nation; and the Brexit party, without any historic luggage and with a simple, populist message, are tapping into popular discontent. Collectively, the generally timid political opposition that Labour has faced in the past has become a force to be reckoned with. The time where Labour was the only acceptable option for the working-class people of south Wales has given way to an era of pluralistic politics.
Another reason for the fall in support for Labour is arguably the ongoing revolt against the status-quo gripping Wales. As statistically one of the poorest regions in Northern Europe, it seems that this economic condition is translating into political action. The Brexit vote, for instance, must be viewed from this lens because Wales was a net beneficiary of EU money; there was no financial incentives to vote to leave, only political ones. In this respect, Labour’s dominance of Welsh politics makes it the status-quo and, consequently, the target of this growing discontent resulting in a fall in its support. Additionally, having now been in power in Cardiff Bay for over 20 years with powers over health, education and economic development all devolved, the finger-pointing for Wales’ inferior and mediocre position in many crucial measurements – from the PISA tables to hospital waiting times and economic stagnation – is increasingly being correctly directed towards Labour. For a growing number of people, Labour is not the solution; it is the problem itself. And in this regard, perhaps the people of Wales are finally waking up to their insanity; maybe that Einstein’s message has finally sunk in that doing the same leads to the same perpetual state of politics, in Wales’ case, poverty and under-achievement.
The question arising from this is how would a marked fall in support for the Labour party in Wales impact the rest of the UK? Firstly, if Labour can no longer bank on winning 25-30 seats in Wales and as it continues to struggle to win any consequential support in Scotland, if it is to regain the keys to No.10, it will have to win in parts of England it has never come close to winning before. To contextualise this, if one were to assume that Wales and Scotland did not vote for a single Labour MP in the 1997 Tony Blair landslide, that majority would have been wafer thin. The point here is that Labour depends on Wales and Scotland for parliamentary majorities and with Scotland already a lost cause, losing increasing amounts of support in Wales would be the equivalent of guaranteeing a Conservative Westminster government for the foreseeable future. This article has limited space to devote to the foreign policy impact of future Conservative governments but given accusations of party’s current re-alignment with the hard-right to counter the Brexit Party insurgence, a more English nationalist agenda with the wider world is likely, marked by closer ties to the US than Europe. Therefore, although Wales only has 40 seats in Westminster, its impact on parliamentary arithmetic at a time of substantial change in Scotland is crucial for the rest of the UK and beyond.
Secondly, a fall in support for one party inherently means a rise in support for another. If the Conservatives and/or Brexit Party were to be the beneficiaries, it would compound the impact discussed previously of Conservative-led governments for the foreseeable future. But if Plaid Cymru were to fill the void left by Labour, the very fabric of the UK would be under pressure. Already this year, Plaid, for the first time ever, topped the Welsh Political Barometer’s opinion poll for the Welsh Assembly elections, and three independence marches have garnered notable support in the past year. Moreover, the likes of Carwyn Jones, the Labour party leader in Wales and the First Minister between 2009-18, has floated the idea of a federal UK because of a systemic imbalance towards Wales which will only deteriorate in the event of Scottish independence, and further devolution is being called for when powers previously located in Europe return to the UK post-Brexit. In summary, the demise of Welsh Labour could easily result in constitutional wrangling between Cardiff Bay and Westminster, and consequently, UK foreign policy would be severely undermined by internal tensions and constitutional anarchy stemming from political instability in Wales for the first time in a century.
But of course, as Prof. Roger Scully notes, “a party does not win 26 general elections in a row without having some staying power, and Welsh Labour will not be easily pushed aside.” That is, despite cracks appearing in the Labour party’s armoury on the Welsh battlefield, that does not mean its ability to fight is compromised; it can still perform strongly in the polls. The 2017 general election was a case in point; despite being 10% behind in the early stages, in the end, the Labour party beat the Conservatives by 15%. As the old saying goes, stick a Labour rosette on a donkey and the people of Wales will fervently vote for it. Therefore, it seems that the Welsh political landscape is very much in the balance, and as December 12th approaches, the question remains: is Wales still politically insane?
