The Conservatives' Election Strategy
On the 29th of October, Boris Johnson’s wish for a General Election was granted after MPs voted in favour of his motion by a majority of 418. A week earlier, the Conservatives’ Brexit Withdrawal Agreement Bill received a majority. However, Johnson’s accelerated Brexit timetable was rejected by the House of Commons, leaving Brexit in limbo. This impasse made it increasingly clear to the Cabinet that without a majority, Brexit would likely remain unresolved. Therefore, it was of little surprise that following this defeat in parliament, Johnson began to advocate a General Election. This may have a sense a déjà vu as to when Theresa May called for a snap election in 2017 in the hope of securing a greater majority to ensure that her Brexit deal could pass in the Commons unhindered. Of course, the reality of that election was that May lost her slim majority, undermining her legislative prospects. Unlike May, Johnson does not currently possess a majority, meaning his decision carries less risk. Having had his withdrawal agreement passed in Parliament, Johnson is far closer to achieving Brexit than May ever was. Gaining a majority in the upcoming election should provide the Conservatives with the means to successfully leave the EU.
Currently, the opinion polls show the Conservatives enjoying a 10 point lead over Labour, but with a month to go until the election there is still considerable time for public opinion to shift. It is also important to note that opinion polls have been exceptionally volatile this year, with three different parties having taken the lead at some point. Therefore, it would be unwise to rule out a Labour resurgence, especially when they gained considerable ground in the build up to the 2017 election. The recent announcement by Nigel Farage that the Brexit Party will not contest the 317 seats won by the Conservatives in 2017 is a great boost to Johnson. The reduced competition should greatly increase the ability of the Tories to retain those seats. However, despite this new alliance it is more than likely that the next month will be fraught with difficulties for the Conservatives. Earlier this month Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Leader of the House of Commons, made a highly controversial comment regarding the Grenfell Tower fire. He stated during an LBC programme that the residents were incorrect to listen to the advice from the fire brigade and should have instead fled the building. While Mogg may have had evidence to support his claim, his comments were ultimately tactless and will likely feature in Labour campaigning. Johnson, like Mogg, is prone to going off script and speaking impulsively. For example, in 2017 his careless statements about Nazanin Zaghari- Ratcliffe greatly hindered her chance of an early release from an Iranian prison. The charisma of Johnson, Mogg and others can certainly be a huge asset on the campaign trail. However, it can also present huge liabilities, as show in the examples above.
The Conservatives will likely place great emphasis on Labour constituencies which voted Leave in the Brexit referendum. Johnson has heavily targeted Leave voters with his “do or die” pledge to leave the EU. There were 148Labour constituencies which voted leave in 2016. Attempting to win these seats will likely be a huge priority for Johnson, especially when considering that Labours’ margin of victory in the 2017 election was under seven points in 93 of these seats. It is a realistic goal for the Conservatives to flip these seats and doing so would ensure a majority. Although Jeremy Corbyn (Leader of the Labour Party) has recently clarified Labours’ Brexit plan, he has often been highly evasive when questioned on the subject over the past 2 years. Earlier this month Corbyn proposed that Labour would renegotiate a deal with the EU followed by a second referendum on either leaving under Labours’ deal or remaining in the EU. This strategy was likely devised in the hope of appeasing both remain and leave voters. This could potentially increase the likelihood of the Conservatives winning seats in Labour constituencies which voted Leave. Labours’ proposed approach to Brexit could be viewed as little more than a ploy, with the ultimate aim to remain in the EU.
Corbyn’s neutral approach is unlikely to satisfy ardent Brexit supporters. Thus, Johnson’s dogmatic commitment to Brexit should help to secure the Leave vote. However, 80 Conservative constituencies voted to remain in the EU in the 2016 referendum, and there is a possibility that Johnson could soon lose these seats. Indeed, any gains in the form of leave-voting Labour seats could be offset by losing remain-voting constituencies. However, with the Liberal Democrats polling poorly, this is perhaps an indication that losses may be minimal to the Conservatives.
Brexit is challenging traditional party allegiances and will be the central issue for most voters. This means that no party can guarantee the support of traditionally loyal constituencies. Johnson is taking a gamble with remain-voting constituencies with his firm commitment to Brexit. However, taking a non-committal approach like Corbyn, would likely reduce the prospect of flipping leave voting Labour seats. To gain a majority in the House of Commons, the Conservatives’ will have to flip some of these Labour seats. Therefore, Johnson has to embrace this risk, and offer an alternative Brexit plan to Corbyn.
