Is the New Cold War Being Fought on Ice? The Strategic Battle for Greenland
Greenland, are you the future of international relations? This subject is growing more pertinent as the world's superpowers - the United States, China, and Russia - increase their strategic interest in the Arctic. The area, which was previously isolated, has now become critical in what some refer to as the "new Cold War". The growing interest in the world's biggest island stems from its vast natural resource deposits, thriving Arctic trade routes, and important military/tactical location. Thus, Greenland is no longer merely a region of glaciers and ice caps, but rather the geopolitical hotspot capable of changing the future balance of power.
The Cold War fragmented the world into two political and military blocs. Today, the old Cold War has evolved into a new type of conflict defined by resource control, technological dominance, and strategic positioning. Greenland is and will inevitably continue to be the focus of the present and future power struggle.
Climate warming has created a new power channel for Greenland. As the rate of melting Arctic ice increases, new trade routes, such as the northern Sea route and the Northwest Passage, are opening, paving the way for a potential revolution in global maritime commerce. Indeed, as ice recedes, Greenland finds itself at the geographic centre of a potential Arctic marine superhighway, which may cut prices and transit time between Asia, Europe, and North America. By gaining power in Greenland, China and Russia would essentially control these routes and all the economic benefits they provide.
Furthermore, Greenland has an unexplored mineral riches resource that is critical for current technology, electric vehicles, renewable energy, and weapons. While China currently controls more than 60% of the world's supply of rare minerals, Greenland's resources have the potential to threaten this monopoly.
Remarkably, Greenland's mining industry is attracting interest from the US and Europe due to its potential to reduce global reliance on Chinese-controlled resources. Consequently, the debate over Greenland's resource ownership is a critical component of the country's growing geopolitical importance.
Another aspect contributing to superpowers' growing interest in Greenland is the island's strategic geographical position. Greenland is a valuable asset for economic and military activity due to its strategic location in an area that permits control of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oceans.
The US Thule Air Base in northwest Greenland, for example, was created during the Cold War and today serves as a strategic location for NATO's (missile) defence and space monitoring. As tensions between Russia and NATO rise, Greenland's position becomes increasingly relevant in Western security strategy.
As time passes, it becomes increasingly evident that the United States sees Greenland as a chance to limit Russia and China's prospective power rise. This desire skyrocketed in 2019, when the former US President Donald Trump announced the unexpected proposal to acquire Greenland from Denmark. While this proposal was quickly disregarded as unfeasible, it demonstrated Washington's growing worry about Greenland's strategic importance.
Additionally, in response to China's rising economic presence in Greenland, the US has boosted its diplomatic and commercial ties with the island. Washington reopened its consulate in Nuuk (Greenland's capital) in 2020, after being closed for decades. Since then, the United States has strengthened its connections with Greenland's administration by offering more financial and infrastructure assistance. This was mostly done to guarantee that the island stayed in line with Western interests rather than those of China and/or Russia.
Likewise, the US Department of Defence has been directly attempting to resist Chinese involvement in Greenland's mining sector. For instance, in 2021 both the US and Denmark pressed Greenlandic authorities to halt Chinese corporation’s attempts to purchase the island’s mining regions. Washington's aim is straightforward: maintain Greenland in Western orbit, both economically and militarily.
While the US’s interest in Greenland stems from the island’s strategic security guarantees, Russia is mainly concerned with expanding its military presence in the area. Indeed, Moscow has restored Soviet-era military facilities, constructed new radar and missile systems, and held large-scale Arctic military drills.
Like the United States, Russia wants control of the Northern Sea Route, a shipping route along Russia's coastline that may become a profitable alternative to the Suez Canal. Indeed, considering recent tensions in the Middle East, this route would give Moscow control over much of the naval commerce between Asia and Europe, boosting its economic and geopolitical dominance.
Russia’s dominance of the route would lower its transaction costs by shortening the distance and lowering fuel expenditure. If successful, Russia could become a major player in global trade, increasing the competitiveness of its energy and mineral exports by cutting costs for foreign consumers. This major shift in global trade would weaken Western economic power in global markets.
Still, while Greenland seems to appreciate the United States’ assistance against Chinese potential expansion, Russia’s Arctic expansion remains a growing concern. In the case of escalating tensions between Russia and NATO, Greenland could become a frontline for military confrontations. Indeed, the presence of US Thule Air Base makes Greenland a potential target in any future conflict, further increasing its geopolitical stakes.
While the United States’ interest is held in Greenland’s geopolitical position, China’s interest in Greenland is primarily economic. Many Chinese businesses have attempted to engage in Greenland's mining industry, notably in the extraction of rare minerals. While the United States seeks to block most prospective Chinese investments, China is portraying itself as Greenland's scientific partner, investing in Arctic research and climate monitoring stations. Although these activities are presented as peaceful cooperation, many Western experts believe they are part of a larger goal to establish a long-term presence in the region.
Greenland's significance in the future of international relations is no longer a theoretical matter; it is a key component of the 21st century power balance. As the drive to control and safeguard the Arctic intensifies, Greenland's geopolitical position becomes increasingly unstable.
Should Greenland join with the United States and NATO to provide security while possibly restricting economic options, or should they engage with China and Russia for financial investment, despite the risks of political dependence? Greenland must decide, as remaining neutral is no longer an option.
One thing is certain: the “new Cold War” is getting colder, and the struggle for Greenland has only just begun, with its outcome ensuring a long-term impact on Arctic politics.
Image courtesy of Stig Nygaard via Flickr, ©2007. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
