Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin – Little Cause for Optimism

Mar 13

Mar 13 Joe Biden and Vladimir Putin – Little Cause for Optimism

The state of the relationship between the United States and Russia continues to be a cause for great concern. The term “Cold War” is increasingly noticeable in the description of current relations between the two countries. The 2014 crisis in Ukraine set off a new wave of confrontations that have encouraged scholars and analysts to reflect and caution about the potential consequences of a worsening relationship. Domestic attitudes among politicians and ordinary Americans towards Russia have deteriorated significantly. This mainly results from the serious allegations that Russia interfered and directly influenced the outcome of the 2016 presidential elections and continues to use its intelligence resources to undermine Western rivals. In great power politics, the pattern and nature of events is highly likely to be influenced by the individual personalities of leaders. This is certainly the case in the US-Russia relationship. This century, the domestic and international legacies of many American presidents are partly determined by their handling of the relationship with Vladimir Putin’s Russia. The arrival of President Joe Biden to the White House promises to lead to another intriguing shift in that relationship.

The most recent example of Russian influence on the legacies of American presidents is the Trump administration’s tenure. Many continue to question the extent to which the former president was able to stand against what many consider an aggressive Russian approach towards the US. Although Donald Trump has publicly described himself as the toughest American president against Russia, several examples demonstrate a passive approach that differs significantly to the Obama administration. This includes an unwillingness to comment explicitly on the allegations of the 2016 election interference and recent developments surrounding Alexei Navalny. In total contrast to Trump, Biden is expected to pursue a different approach. A significant emphasis was placed on an extremely tough stance against Russia throughout Biden’s election campaign. Now newly elected, President Biden has promised to confront what he considers to be a dangerous Russia seeking to influence Western society in its own favour. Biden’s election also presents a valuable opportunity to examine how personal relationships can influence the course of a great power rivalry. Biden and Putin have known each other for a very long time, and their intriguing history of comments, remarks and meetings make their individual relationship well worth considering. The stakes of this relationship are high. As the world faces increasingly unpredictable and unprecedented challenges, Russia and the US will have to learn to cooperate in some of the most critical areas in international affairs. Issues as serious as controlling their competition in the military sphere, collectively managing the global pandemic and cooperation on issues like climate change and the Iran deal will only be possible if their leaders are able to encounter at least some degree of mutual understanding.

Joe Biden once said that after looking Putin into the eyes, he told him he didn’t see a soul. The newly elected President has experience working on Russia. His work in foreign policy as Vice President under Barack Obama was highly influenced by the Ukraine crisis, with Biden’s voice playing a major role in criticising Russia and gathering support for Ukraine among Western nations. This approach has been promised to form a crucial part of the new administration’s outlook on foreign policy with the President clearly identifying the relationship with Russia as a major challenge. In simple terms, Biden wants to demonstrate that the US is no longer willing to ‘roll over’ in its relations with Russia. In fact, during his first call with the Russian leader Biden immediately expressed concern for actions he believes are taken by Russia with the goal of interfering and influencing the domestic affairs of the United States. He has suggested that dealing with cybersecurity will be a top priority of the administration. For Vladimir Putin, however, personal relationships with American leaders are not a significant indicator for his approach to foreign policy. According to political analyst Stanislas Belkovsky, Putin does not consider positive relations a reason for optimism. In his view, relatively ‘positive’ relations with President Trump in comparison to previous administrations did not translate into a more positive US-Russian relationship. Instead, many rightly consider it to be at the lowest point in the post-Cold War period. Both sides’ acceptance of the relationship’s increasing fragility is evident. This becomes significantly more worrying when considering the already strained personal relationship between the leaders. This is likely to influence areas of both conflict and cooperation in the coming years.

As the US-Russian relationship develops, the two leaders will have to learn to compromise and agree on issues of fundamental importance to international security. What was previously described as a policy of “friendly deterrence” by Trump will inevitably be replaced by a more aggressive rhetoric. Although the recent renewal of the START nuclear treaty for five years is a positive development, more challenging areas such as the Iran deal will require a greater level of dialogue and interaction. Biden will certainly pursue a different approach to his predecessor. This has been the case throughout his career, with the Russian question considerably influencing his political personality, outlook on global order and career as a diplomat. For Putin, some degree of cooperation on areas of mutual interest will likely remain a priority despite his obvious disregard for what he still considers a unilateralist American approach to foreign policy.

The historical confrontation between the US and Russia is entering a new phase. Although the characteristics of this phase remain similar to previous eras, this moment feels particularly dangerous given the complex nature of issues at stake. Officials on both sides mention regularly that the two sides’ difference in views has never been so significant. One would assume that the greater the threat of the relationship worsening further, the greater the ambition and desire to work together to avoid serious escalation. Early signs of the Biden presidency, however, show the opposite. Significant suspicion and caution can already be noted. The two leaders are clear political opponents and unlikely to cooperate in areas beyond those absolutely necessary for the protection of international security. The Trump presidency demonstrates that a lack of direct confrontation between the leaders does not necessarily translate into positive relations and progress between the countries. In this case, however, there are enough reasons to be pessimistic. World leaders must be wary of the possibility of personal factors in the Biden-Putin relationship leading to a further worsening in relations, something the international order can no longer afford.