Lula and the 2022 Brazilian Election
He learned to read when he was ten. Soon after, he quit school and sought work to help support his family, finding jobs as a shoe shiner, an office boy, and eventually a factory worker. At nineteen, the little finger on his left hand was crushed in a factory machine, and by the time he received medical attention, it had to be removed; so sparked his interest in labour representation. At 77, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva narrowly defeated far-right incumbent Jair Bolsonaro to become the oldest person ever elected President of Brazil. It will be his third nonconsecutive term in that role.
Widely known by his nickname, Lula has been a central figure in Brazilian politics for decades, although his journey has been a turbulent one. He was born into poverty in 1945 as the youngest of eight children, and was raised almost entirely by his mother. He laboured in factories while Brazil was controlled by a repressive military regime, receiving low pay, and experiencing abhorrent working conditions. In 1975, his brother was kidnapped and tortured, marking a “watershed moment” for Lula, as his biographer put it. Lula launched himself into the struggle for labour representation, organising multiple strikes in the late 1970’s in which millions of workers would participate. He had become the face of a new movement for unionism, and helped, along with a group of trade union leaders, to establish the Workers’ Party (PT) in 1980.
In the 1980s, Lula helped push for democracy in Brazil, playing a role in ‘Diretas Já,’ meaning direct elections now, a popular movement which sought full democracy from the military government. After the fall of the military regime, Brazil established itself as a federal democracy in 1985; the next year Lula became a congressman. He launched three unsuccessful campaigns for Brazil’s presidency before winning in 2002 and winning again four years later. He was immensely popular, raising the minimum wage, reducing public debt, slowing inflation from over 12% in 2002 to less than 6% in 2010, and helping 20 million Brazilians out of poverty. When he left office, his approval rating was 80%.
Things have changed significantly for both Lula and Brazil since he left office. Economically, the nation saw a significant downturn, with a recession occurring from 2014 to 2016 thanks to the policies of Lula’s successor, PT member Dilma Roussef. Today, it suffers from a high national debt, and double digit inflation. Brazil is also plagued by high crime rates, increased poverty and the continuing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic. Lula has also seen a fall from grace since 2010; he was implicated in the Lava Jato (Car Wash) corruption investigation which unravelled a web of crime stretching throughout PT and Brazil’s government. Lula served 580 days of a 12 year sentence; he was released in November 2019 and his convictions were thrown out when it was concluded that the judge was biassed. During his campaign, he compared himself to Nelson Mandela, Martin Luther King Jr., and Gandhi–political leaders imprisoned while fighting for social change–while his opponents called him a criminal.
Bolsonaro has seen his share of controversy as well. He was elected four years ago on promises of economic growth and decreased crime. His socially conservative policies toward LGBT and reproductive rights, his treatment of indigenous people and the Amazon rainforest, and his shoddy handling of the pandemic have drawn criticism at home and abroad. Bolsonaro’s conservative economic policies included cutting federal funding to government run schools and promising the privatisation of government-owned corporations. With regards to foreign policy, Bolsonaro embraced anti-globalist perspectives, wanting to decrease Brazil’s involvement in the UN and threatening to exit the Paris Agreement and the WHO, echoing former American President Donald Trump. His policies have led Brazil to become an international pariah. Also reminiscent of Trump were Bolsonaro’s attacks on Brazil’s democratic system, leading many of his supporters to doubt the integrity of this year’s election.
Neither Bolsonaro nor Lula won a majority in the first round of elections on 2 October, so a runoff was scheduled for the 30th of that same month. Both candidates’ parties gained seats in the Brazilian Senate, with Bolsonaro’s Liberal Party (PL) gaining six seats and the PT winning two more seats. More moderate parties represented most of the lost seats, demonstrating the effects of increased political polarisation in Brazil. The runoff would be the closest election since the fall of the military dictatorship, with Lula winning 50.9% of the vote. In his victory speech, he pledged to be a leader for all Brazilians: “We are one country, one people, and one great nation.”
The world watched intently to see if democracy would prevail in Brazil. Pro-Bolsonaro protests broke out in Brazil, claiming significant election fraud and calling for military intervention in the electoral process, while Bolsonaro was silent. Hundreds of highways across the country were blocked, bringing much of Brazil to a halt. After two days and the international recognition of Lula’s victory, Bolsonaro called a press conference in which he said he would follow constitutional commandments, ensuring the transfer of power without acknowledging the results or fairness of the election. He reportedly told a Supreme Court Justice “It is over. So let’s look ahead.”
Looking ahead presents Lula with daunting tasks. 100 million of 214 million Brazilians live in poverty. 33 million face extreme hunger. Deforestation has destroyed millions of hectares of the Amazon in the past few years, with serious environmental ramifications and damages indigenous communities. Still, pro-Bolsonaro protests of the recent election continue. Lula’s plans are ambitious, promising more affordable housing, significant infrastructure investment, and ramped-up poverty-relief programs despite Brazil’s financial woes. He must be wary of over-ambition; the Brazil he will be leading is a very different one from the early 2000s. It is not primed for the same growth, and political reform will not come easily in such a divided country. On November 16 at the COP27 summit, Lula announced that “Brazil is ready to come back.” His idealism reflects his own rise from poverty to the presidency; if he can lead Brazil to recovery will be seen when he takes office in January.
Image courtesy of Valter Campanato/ABr via Wikimedia Commons, ©2015, some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team
