One year on – is Myanmar on the verge of revolutionary change?
Over a year ago, on the morning of February 1st, 2021, a coup d’état began in Myanmar when its military, known as the Tatmadaw, seized power from the country’s ruling party, the National League for Democracy (NLD). Since then, unrest has gripped the country, with the junta killing over 1500 civilians and charging, arresting, or sentencing a further 9000.
Almost immediately after the military seized power, a national Civil Disobedience Movement (CDM) was launched. Initially, the methods employed by the opposition activists of the CDM were strictly peaceful, including non-violent mass protests and widespread strikes. However, their campaign was ineffectual, and the military immediately began to intensify their repression, moving aggressively to quell the resistance. Not only did they employ more physical force, but they further quashed democracy by enforcing an internet blackout to stifle access to information across the country. As a result, the non-violent movement lost steam after only a couple of months.
The wider resistance movement was not deterred, however. In recognition of the fact that their non-violent methods could not work against the military’s reckless brutality, many civilians began to mobilise fighting forces throughout the country. Although some remain committed to effecting change using peaceful means rather than force, the upsurge in fighting between armed civilians and the formidably armed Tatmadaw has ushered in a new pattern of conflict.
Bearing in mind the age-old proverb that warns against ‘fighting fire with fire’, it is easy to dismiss violent resistance efforts and movements as futile as, typically, anger tends to breed more anger. However, although the 2011 Arab Uprisings proved the effectiveness of non-violent resistance movements for challenging state power, Myanmar’s troubled history and great ethnic diversity calls for a more context-specific approach. The Tatmadaw, Goldman argues, needs to be countered on its own terms.
Although Myanmar is now on the brink of economic collapse due to the persistent violence that engulfs it, the resistance movement brings the possibility of enacting real change in the long-term, and has not been given the attention it deserves in mainstream media. Whilst dominant ‘western’ narratives of the current situation typically tend to highlight the hopelessness of any attempt at resistance and the perpetual nature of the current conflict, a closer analysis of recent events seems to suggest that a revolution is in the making. This does not mean to suggest that the conflict is likely to come to an end anytime soon, but instead that greater attention should be paid to the potential of those at the forefront of the resistance movement who are intent on restoring democracy.
Firstly, it is important to note that those fighting in the 'multi-front’ war against the Tatmadaw are not just loosely organised groups of people. Not only does this front consist of many ethnic armed organisations that were already fighting Myanmar's armed forces for self-determination prior to the February 2021 coup, but also the People’s Defence Force (PDF), the armed wing of the National Unity Government (NUG), the body claiming to be the legitimate government of Myanmar. Furthermore, ordinary citizens are forming and joining clandestine rebel training camps in preparation to overthrow the junta. Ultimately, looking to the future, the proliferation of civilian forces is likely to overstretch the military, and potentially cause them to weaken as a result.
It is also worth emphasising that participation in the resistance movement is not exclusive to any one part of the population. Due to its grassroots origins, the movement encompasses anyone and everyone who wants to reverse the military coup and restore democracy. The role of young demonstrators and fighters, for example, should not be overlooked. Guided by a belief that they have no choice but to take matters into their own hands, and that the world is ignoring their situation, an ever-increasing number of students are reaching out to forces in ethnic armed areas. Furthermore, on the more peaceful end of the spectrum, ‘Generation Z’ were at the heart of, and actually organised, some of the first protest movements that emerged in the initial aftermath of the coup. The willingness of young people to be on the front lines of the fight for democracy is extremely encouraging. After all, it is their future that has been put in peril due to the military’s ruthless repression.
Although the proliferation of civilian militia groups has somewhat fragmented the resistance movement, the fusing of old and new resistance has simultaneously created a moment ripe with possibility. Now, cross-generation collaboration to ensure that Myanmar does not return to a darker past threatens the junta in ways unparalleled in the post-colonial period.
In fact, perhaps because of a recognition that the resistance movement cannot, and will not, be quelled anytime soon, the Tatmadaw has seen more defections to the CDM and PDF than ever before in recent months. It is therefore looking increasingly likely that the Tatmadaw will soon have to admit defeat and grant freedom to the people of Myanmar. As Chris Sidoti, of the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar, said, “The democratic movement is determined this time. It will not stand down, it will not give up”.
Finally, not only is there hope for Myanmar in terms of ousting the military junta, but, looking to the future, long-standing divisions of ethnicity, religion, domicile and occupation that were once an endemic characteristic of society are likely to vanish completely. Now, a determination to overthrow military rule has united those who were once rivals. Once Myanmar escapes its current situation, we can expect this newfound unity to drive societal change in the months and years to come.
Although we cannot ignore the atrocities that have been committed on both sides, it is time to change the narrative. One-sided violence against civilians has been replaced by a situation where the armed forces are facing violent opposition from a highly determined resistance movement. Whilst the world sits and watches, a revolution is coming, albeit slowly.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
