Repeating History? A Reflection on Taiwan’s Presidential Election
Taiwan’s history is one fraught with a colonial shadow, having been a territory of the Dutch, the Japanese and the KMT government. Yet, the Taiwanese have created a unique nation while juggling Western influences, Japanese pop-culture and Chinese cultural traditions. Taipei, Taiwan’s capital, is a pick-and-mix product of these competing forces. While walking the streets, you feel as though you are walking through multiple cities as brutalist architecture stands next to alleyways swarming with night-market sellers. Taiwanese locals are proud of the country they have created and the more liberal, democratic values they hold. But this stands at odd with Xi Jinping’s desire to unify the self-ruling island with China. The most recent Presidential elections, resulting in the victory of the Democratic Progressive Party’s candidate William Lai, have once again brought the tensions of Cross-Strait relations to the attention of global politics. Tensions are at their peak as nation leaders sit apprehensively in wait for China’s next move.
On January 13, 2024, Taiwan held elections for its presidency and its legislature, the Legislative Yuan. The election resulted in the victory of William Lai, the leader of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai succeeds the previous DPP leader, President Tsai Ing-wen. Since she was elected in 2016, official cross-strait dialogue with China has been suspended and there is great concern over China’s growing use of ‘grey zone’ tactics and the potential for these to escalate to actual hostilities.
Lai won with just over 40% of the vote. While achieving victory, Lai does not place himself in as powerful a position as his predecessor Tsai Ing-wen who won both of her previous elections with over 56% of the votes. However, this is not due to growing popularity of the KMT but an increase of votes to the TPP. In regard to the legislature, DPP lost its majority which will make Lai’s ability to push forward a DPP agenda much more difficult during his candidacy. This is the first time since 2004 that no party has won an outright majority, meaning the TPP will be responsible for forming a coalition. During the campaign, Lai said he would carry along the path forged by his predecessor, Tsai Ing-wen in balancing cross-strait relations. Taiwan does not need formal independence as it is already, in their eyes, independent from China.
However, while the Taiwanese government may hold these views, China cannot hold a more diametrically opposed view. Xi Jinping regards reunification with the mainland ‘a historical inevitability.’ This is regardless of these election results. Two days after the election, the Pacific Island nation of Nauru announced that it would sever all diplomatic ties with Taiwan and establish relations with the PRC. Taiwan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs has said that China has engaged political figures on the with the nation and given economic assistance in an attempt to persuade the island to switch allegiance. This is a similar tactic employed previously in March 2023 when China coincided President Tsai Ing-wen’s transit through the US with their announcement of diplomatic ties with Honduras, a previous Taiwanese ally. As of now, China has convinced 10 countries to switch ties from Taiwan to the PRC under Tsai’s presidency. PRC issued statements criticising the US, Japan and various European countries for sending delegates to Taiwan following the elections and criticised the US State Department and the Philippines for congratulating Lai on his victory.
Most critically, an official statement was released which seems to curb those happy with the result. The PRC’s foreign ministry spokesperson said, ‘Whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change’. Beijing recognises that Lai didn’t win over 50% of the presidential vote and that the DPP did not maintain a majority in the Legislative Yuan. Thus, China can continue to make the argument that peaceful unification is still possible, and Lai does not represent the will of the Taiwan people. So, hopefully, this will mean China does not implement more severe action against Taiwan.
We can look to Hong Kong to how China has previously responded to a territory under Chinese administration wanting more freedom and democracy. Previously used in the 2020 elections, the phrase ‘Today’s Hong Kong, Tomorrow’s Taiwan’ was employed by Taiwanese locals as they saw events unfold in Hong Kong. They watched as Hong Kong’s civil liberties were stripped away by China’s imposition of power. Beijing imposed a national security law which criminalized terrorism, secession, subversion and collusion with foreign forces, citing the restoration of social order as why this was necessary. Instead, the law wore away the liberties that Hong Kong had since enjoyed since being returned to Chinese rule in 1997. This made clear to Taiwan that the ‘one country, two systems’ model, which China could propose as a possible Cross-strait arrangement, would not allow for them to continue with their lives as they are now. Even President Tsai Ing-wen brought attention to Hong Kong when addressing China’s framing of the Taiwan Presidential election as ‘a choice between war and peace.’
While we cannot view what occurred and is happening in Hong Kong as a playbook for future China-Taiwan relations, it is nevertheless a precautionary tale for what Taiwan could expect from the PRC. History tends to repeat itself, but the people of Taiwan will not succumb to China’s demands without a fight.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
