Russia and Turkey: Between Conflict and Cooperation

The year 2020 has seen numerous developments in international affairs that have impacted global politics. As the world battles the coronavirus pandemic, the United States votes for the next president and the UK attempts to negotiate a trade deal with the EU it is important not to forget other geopolitical developments happening around the world. The relationship between Russia and Turkey is one such example, primarily because of the importance it has in various spheres of global affairs. This relationship continues to significantly influence the geopolitical and military situation in the Middle East. Both Russia and Turkey have significant roles to play in both the Syrian and Libyan conflicts, for example. Each country is likely to pursue the strengthening of their sphere of influence and dominance in the region, which is why a positive relationship between them is crucial for peace in the region and beyond. The cooperation between the two powers is significantly marked by the personal relationship between Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, with foreign policy a crucial factor for their respective domestic reputations.

The Russia-Turkey relationship is very important for international order due to the implications it has for a region as important as the Middle East. Turkey, despite being a member of NATO, has experienced an inconsistent relationship with the European Union and the West more generally. This has, in some ways, encouraged a closer relationship with Russia with a significant increase in trade between the two countries and an improvement in diplomatic relations. However, the two countries have a history of disagreeing on important issues that have, in recent years, developed a fragile situation in the Middle East. Since the 17th century the countries have fought in six wars, demonstrating the historic tensions at play. The most apparent contemporary example is the Syrian crisis, where Russia and Turkey traditionally support opposing sides of the conflicts. In Syria, Turkey’s attempt to replace the regime with a ‘Muslim Brotherhood-friendly’ government failed whereas Russia transformed into a fundamental ally of the Assad regime and supported it against Western powers. The relationship arguably reached tipping point in November of 2015, when a Turkish Air force fighter jet shot down a Russian aircraft by the Syria-Turkish border. This led to a tourism and trade blockade that was put forward by Russia. The sides were able to eventually reconcile, but the Syrian conflict continues to cause issues.

This inconsistency is inherent to relations between Ankara and Moscow, and is arguably determined by the the two countries’ dealings with the West. In recent years, trade between the countries has increased, with Russia selling “$40 billion per annum” worth of natural gas to Turkey. Both countries have experienced a tourism surge, and now top each other’s lists for tourist arrivals. This level of economic interdependence is a crucial countervailing force against the geopolitical issues that divide Russia and Turkey. A useful example is the current situation in Idlib, Syria’s north-western province. Another incident occurred as recently as February of this year when Syrian forces, supported by the Russian military, killed 36 Turkish soldiers in Northern Syria. This provoked fears of a war declaration but the two leaders were once again able to reconcile and adopt a diplomatic approach. The confrontation in Syria reinforces the importance influence over the Middle Eastern region for both powers. The Russian intervention in Syria to support the regime is clearly part of a broader desire to consolidate influence in the region, especially considering the withdrawal of the US. For Turkey, the situation in Syria and Idlib in particular presents a security threat to its borders. Turkey also seeks to be viewed as the most influential in the region, which is why it has justified intervention in Syria for security reasons.

The Russia-Turkey relationship should be treated with caution by the broader international community, particularly Western powers. Despite economic cooperation and advancements in diplomatic settlement following confrontations, the relationship is fragile. Both countries are deeply involved in various regional conflicts, encouraging the pursuit of individual strategic goals. It has shown the capacity to deteriorate quickly and is generally highly dependent on the individual characteristics and actions of the leaders. Turkey’s status as a NATO member highlights the potential dangers of a political or military clash with Russia for international order. Although certain forces have managed to constrain the two countries in their geopolitical rivalry, the conditions remain for a potential escalation. As the Syrian conflict continues to develop, the room for confrontation remains. With Western powers no longer prioritizing intervention in the Middle East due to the existing challenges experienced worldwide, the potential for an intensification in the geopolitical rivalry exists. Russia and Turkey have been at war before and enough continues to divide them today for genuine concerns to remain. However, it must be a relationship based on cooperation and compromise that drives the countries and the region forward.

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