Sino-American Relations and Tension in the Taiwan Strait
As tensions escalate in the Taiwan Strait, Sino-American relations increasingly mirror Cold War strategies, particularly reminiscent of the Truman Doctrine and the U.S. approach to containing communism. American arms sales to Taiwan are often seen as a deliberate effort to undermine Chinese influence and restrict the spread of communism, while safeguarding democracy by providing Taiwan with the military assets needed to counter a potential Chinese invasion.
On 18 September 2024, China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs imposed sanctions on nine American defence firms over the sales of military equipment to Taiwan. This move comes amid China’s efforts to increase pressure on Taiwan and demands that Washington end its support for Taiwanese independence; Chinese spokesperson Lin Jian claims that American activity seriously “undermines China’s sovereignty and security interests.”
The history of American military intervention in the region is compelling and calls for a more detailed examination of the nature of Sino-American relations and status as a Second Cold War.
A Brief History of Sino-American relations in the Taiwanese Theatre:
Relations between the two superpowers have historically been fraught, dating back to the Korean War in 1950 which marked the beginning of US military involvement in the Taiwan Strait as a part of its Cold War policy of preventing Chinese aggression. Subsequently, the First Taiwan Strait Crisis (1954-1955) saw escalating tensions and resulted in the signing of the US-ROC Mutual Defence Treaty in 1954, committing the US to defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese attack. The crisis marked the first formal military commitment by the US to Taiwan. Throughout the 1960s, the US continued its support for Taiwan as part of its broader Cold War strategy to contain communism.
In 1972, the US and China issued the Shanghai Communiqué, where the US acknowledged the "One China" principle, which proclaimed the CCP as China's only legitimate government and Taiwan as an inalienable part of China. Despite this, the US continued arms sales to Taiwan. In 1979, the US formally switched diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to China, but passed the Taiwan Relations Act the same year. This act ensured continued US support for Taiwan's self-defence, mandating arms sales, and military assistance despite the absence of formal diplomatic ties. In 1982, the US and China signed the Third US-China Communiqué, which stipulated a gradual reduction in arms sales to Taiwan. However, President Ronald Reagan's Six Assurances to Taiwan, issued the same year, clarified that the US would not set a date to end arms sales, consult with China about those sales, or recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan, demonstrating the US’ staunch and unwavering support for democratic values.
Furthermore, the Third Taiwan Strait Crisis (1995-1996) demonstrated the US's continued commitment to Taiwan’s defence and reinforced its critical role in maintaining regional peace and stability.
Throughout the 2000s, cross-strait relations remained fraught as China ramped up its military modernisation efforts, while the US continued arms sales to Taiwan. The Obama administrations pivot to Asia reaffirmed the US commitment to Taiwan as part of its strategy to counterbalance China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific. Under Trump and Biden administrations, arms sales and diplomatic engagement with Taiwan have continued, resulting in China conducting military drills around Taiwan, simulating blockades and missile strikes. This further suggests that the US is continuing its commitment to uphold democratic values in East Asia, despite the threat of Chinese aggression.
Significance of Taiwan to China and the US:
Politically, China views Taiwan as a breakaway province, and the drive for reunification is a central tenet of the CCP’s national mission with the "One China" policy as a guiding framework for foreign policy. As such, Beijing limits Taiwan’s diplomatic relations by pressuring the international community to deny it recognition as a sovereign state. Moreover, the island sits at the heart of East Asia’s vital sea lanes, making it a key geopolitical asset. Under Chinese control, Taiwan could prove a powerful military foothold in the region, allowing the Chinese navy to project power across the Indo-Pacific. This would represent a significant shift in the regional power balance, giving China the capability to threaten Japan, the Philippines, and US military bases in the Pacific. From the US perspective, Taiwan is a crucial tactical asset in its broader Indo-Pacific strategy. The island lies along the ‘First Island Chain’ which acts as a barrier to Chinese maritime expansion. For decades, the US has relied on Taiwan to maintain a “free and open Indo-Pacific” and to counterbalance China’s growing influence. Additionally, as a liberal democracy in an otherwise authoritarian region, supporting Taiwan aligns with the US’s broader foreign policy goals of promoting democracy and self-determination.
Moreover, Taiwan holds immense military importance for both China and the US. Chinese control over Taiwan could enable China to project its power into the Pacific. Taiwan’s location could allow China to threaten US military bases in Guam and extend its reach toward Hawaii, significantly shifting the balance of power in the region. A militarized Taiwan under Chinese rule would also give Beijing the ability to dominate key maritime trade routes, crucial for global commerce. This could enable China to command the movement of goods and energy supplies, thereby gaining substantial leverage over regional economies and US military operations. Similarly for the US, Taiwan’s military importance lies primarily in its role as a key piece in the broader Indo-Pacific security architecture. Taiwan’s geographic position makes it a critical outpost for containing Chinese military ambitions. Taiwan’s tactical location enables the US to monitor Chinese military movements and maintain access to vital sea lanes that are crucial for both economic trade and military operations. It is a cornerstone of US efforts to maintain a favourable balance of power in the Indo-Pacific.
Furthermore, Taiwan holds significant economic importance to China and the US, particularly in terms of advanced technology and critical supply chains. Taiwan is home to the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, the world’s largest contract chip manufacturer and supplier of semiconductors. A reunified Taiwan under Chinese control would also bring Taiwan’s economic power directly under Beijing’s influence and could position China as a dominant player in global supply chains. Additionally, these semiconductors are integral to US industries, including consumer electronics, automotive manufacturing, telecommunications, and defence systems.
Are they in a Cold War?
Much like the Cold War era, the current dynamics reflect a struggle for leadership in Asia. Sino-American activity in the Taiwanese theatre evokes the strategic balancing that characterized the Cold War.
Accented by the desire to have a stronghold in the Indo-Pacific, both nations are expanding their military capabilities in response to perceived threats; China is modernizing its naval forces, while the US is reinforcing its alliances through initiatives like the Quad (the US, India, Japan, and Australia). Like the proxy wars and military posturing of the Cold War, US and Chinese military forces now operate in close proximity, raising the spectre of accidental escalation. Instances of freedom of navigation operations in the South China Sea, Chinese aircraft near Taiwan, and US naval patrols highlight this precarious situation. Moreover, both nations are modernizing their nuclear arsenals and pursuing advanced military technologies, echoing the arms race characteristic of the Cold War.
The Trump administration-initiated tariffs and sanctions against China, particularly during the US-China trade war, a trend that has continued under President Biden. The imposition of diplomatic and economic sanctions as evidenced by recent developments in the region further illustrates the adversarial nature of Sino-American relations and the political agenda to contain the spread of communism militarily and economically.
However, unlike the Cold War, which was characterized by proxy wars, the US-China competition has yet to escalate into major conflicts of comparable scale. While potential flashpoints do exist in the Taiwan Strait, the South China Sea, and North Korea, these scenarios remain primarily regional concerns. Moreover, during the Cold War, economic exchange was virtually non-existent, and the complex economic interdependency of US-China relations makes any form of decoupling more challenging and fraught with implications for global stability. Despite this, Sino-American relations go beyond great power rivalry. Geopolitics and trade wars aside, this political relationship is underpinned by consistent American support for Taiwanese self-determination and the containment of communism. Therefore, it does not stray far from reality to say that the US and China are engaged in an updated Cold War, befitting of the 21st century and its new geopolitical dynamics.
Image courtesy of Tanaonte via iStock photos, ©2022. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
