Sino-Russian Relations: A Strategy for a New World Order?
In 2023, U.S. Congressman Michael McCaul deemed the alliance between China and Russia to be ‘the most large-scale threat that Europe and the Pacific have faced since World War II’. Historically characterised by its fragility, the re-emergence of their partnership raises questions about its motivations and significance. Is this a legitimate challenge to the current world order, or merely a temporary collaboration between two frustrated powers?
China and Russia’s relationship has been rather tenuous. Beginning in the early 1950s, their relations were marked by the bilateral Sino-Soviet Treaty of Friendship, Alliance and Mutual Assistance, which enabled cooperation between the two states militarily and economically. However, by the mid-1950s this alliance began to dissolve with the Sino-Soviet split. This saw China and the former Soviet Union drift apart due to ideological divergence created by policies of Nikita Khrushchev, the former Soviet leader, which were an effort to de-Stalinize the federation. This not only produced hostile discourse, but also led to open conflict through the military clash at the Zhenbao (Damansky ) Island in 1969. However, following the 2001 Treaty of Good-Neighbourliness and Friendly Cooperation and its renewal in the summer of 2021,Russia and China are once again partners.
With the partnership between the two states being regarded as an anomaly given their complex histories, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping are said to ‘share a similar worldview’–one created by dissatisfaction with the current world order–which is conveyed to be ‘an extension of the European state system’.
For China, such disregard for the current world order is built upon the belief that the West, particularly the US, wishes to hinder China’s rise to be the top global power. The US Federal Power Commission’s briefing in February 2023 regarding US-China relations saw Assistant Secretary Daniel Kritenbrink state that the US would be ‘aligning with like-minded partners around the world, strengthening our shared interests and values of democracy, openness, and fairness, and to addressing the challenges posed by the PRC’. To China, these alliances are perceived to be part of a broader strategy to maintain the West’s dominance over the international system and stifle China’s trajectory of becoming a world superpower. This hindrance fuels China’s desire to reconstruct global structures and exert itself without limitations.
In contrast, Russia’s dissent of the current world order is deep-seated in its poor relationship with the West. This has been exacerbated by the global response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the expansion of NATO. Russian rhetoric frequently portrays the Russian state as a victim of Western subjugation, using such claims to legitimise violent efforts to construct a new international order. Russia sees the maintenance and enlargement of Western institutions as direct threats to its autonomy and influence, which increases its want for a multipolar world where its interests are protected.
At the heart of Sino-Russian relations is economic collaboration as an attribute to challenge the Western-centrality of the world order. In response to Western sanctions placed on Russia, both China and Russia have worked towards de-dollarisation. This shift away from the Western financial system is exhibited through Sino-Russian bilateral trade, in which the dollar has very little presence. As a result, Chinese and Russian trade has increased by 26%, reaching $240 billion in 2024. As the largest importer of Russian oil, China plays a paramount role in facilitating Russia’s evasion from Western sanctioning.
De-dollarisation is not just about avoiding sanctions, but is an effort which represents the Chinese and Russian challenge to the current world order. By establishing a parallel economic model without the US dollar, they are laying the foundations for a multipolar global order. The emergence of this new system sees the reduction of dependency on Western financial institutions and the emergence of alternative models, which foster sovereignty and phase out US influence.
Furthermore, the military and diplomatic ties between China and Russia signify the two powers’ shared motivation to reshape the international order. Russia has been exporting weaponry to the Chinese military.‘Russian-made systems strengthen China’s air defence, anti-ship, and submarine capabilities, which serve to bolster China’s posture against the United States’. In addition to military provisions, China and Russia have been conducting military training exercises together, such as bomber patrols in the Indo-Pacific and naval training in the Indian Ocean. These coordinations highlight the joint content of Beijing and Moscow to alter global power dynamics and position themselves as more dominant players in the international system.
Beyond Earth itself, Sino-Russian cooperation is evident in space, exhibiting their ambitions to take a leading role in this evergrowing domain. For example, on 5th March 2024, only 10 days after the third anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Yuri Borisov, the head of Russia’s State Space Cooperation Roscosmos, announced that Russia and China planned ‘to build an automated nuclear power plant on the Moon between 2033 and 2035’. This would be used to power the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) which China and Russia founded in 2021. These ventures highlight that China and Russia are collaborating in order to challenge the global world order, while also attempting to establish themselves as revolutionaries of space exploration.
While Sino-Russian relations are still developing, their defence, economic and extraterrestrial efforts highlight that this is not merely an alliance of two disenchanted powers. Instead, their relationship symbolises a purposeful attempt to establish a new world order–one that opposes Western hegemony.
Their joint ambitions to weaken the influence of the West and create new global infrastructure are shown through strategic efforts such as de-dollarisation and pivotal lunar projects. With the expiration of the 2001 Treaty of Good Neighbourliness in 2025, the future of their relations is yet to be determined. Both China and Russia may later compete with each other to become independent global powers. However, for now, their joint efforts to challenge the current balance of power in the international system will continue to threaten Western-centricity. The future of the world order may see the rise of a multipolar system in which China and Russia are dominant leaders, shaping the rules of a new global system.
Image courtesy of Grigory Sysoyev via Getty Images, ©2023. Some Rights Reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
