Taiwan: Understanding the Current Situation
Taiwan seems to be something of an anomaly.
The country enjoys many aspects of a functioning independent democracy - hosting free and fair multiparty elections, peaceful transfer of powers between democratically elected heads of states, a free and independent media – scoring 94/100 on Freedom House’s freedom index.
Yet, the country is not recognised as an independent state by the international community. While Taiwan does hold member status in some international bodies, more often than not, these are regional organisations, such as the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation or the Asian Development Bank. In many major global organisations – such as the UN or IMF – Taiwan is excluded or recognised as an extension of China. In the case of the IMF, Taiwan is referred to as ‘Taiwan, Province of China’.
Furthermore, Taiwan maintains official diplomatic relations with only 13 countries, Honduras being the latest country to sever all official ties in order to pursue a closer partnership with China.
The Chinese government sees Taiwan as a region of “One China,” with Xi Jinping’s Chinese Communist Party (CCP) calling “One China” a principle, not a policy – not something that is to be debated and decided on, but something that is to be taken as a given. Tensions between the two have been rising in recent years, with the current Taiwanese President, Tsai-Ing-wen, taking a more aggressive stance against China. Recent Chinese military practice drills near the Taiwan island have only added to this sense of unease.
Is it possible that Taiwan becomes the new Ukraine?
Well, there are certainly some similarities between Xi Jinping and Putin in their pronouncements towards their neighbours existing only as a part of their country. Indeed, following the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, “hundreds” of Chinese economists and geopolitical analysts focused on ways in which to mitigate future US sanctions in the event of a Taiwan Strait conflict. This being so, no one seems to agree exactly how tense relations are. Some argue that a conflict will occur within the next decade; others say that a conflict would be much further off. Taiwan’s foreign minister has been reported saying that he expects an attack in 2027 – the year in which Xi Jinping has supposedly ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be prepared for an invasion. While others, such as Yun Sun, the director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre, argues that China won’t invade at all unless provoked by Taiwan in the event they declare independence.
Taiwan and Ukraine differ in some important ways, not least is Taiwan’s lack of allies on the international stage. The UK has stayed silent on the issue, essentially leaving Taiwanese independence as something for China and Taiwan to resolve. Liz Truss’ visit – not exactly a political heavyweight – to Taiwan in May 2023, may say something about how high Taiwan ranks on the UK governments foreign policy agenda.
President Biden has – on four occasions – expressed something resembling support for Taiwan, however, his team seem desperate to renege on any promises that the US might be held accountable to in the future. The official policy being one of “strategic ambiguity”. As many analysts have stated, a policy of “strategic ambiguity” may look like an official stance, but unless it is backed by a full situational analysis, geopolitical intent and planning, it is a hollow policy – an absence of policy.
The Biden administration may be attempting to use obscurity as a lever against Taiwan so as to dissuade the nation from doing anything rash – such as declaring independence. A similar technique was used by President George W. Bush in 2003 when the then President, Chen-Shui-bian, looked at risk of doing just that. With elections due to be held early next year, Biden may be signalling to the lead runners to stay muted on the topic.
The elections, due to be held in January 2024, have been hailed by the International Crisis Group as a “window of opportunity” to reduce tensions between the two countries. The incoming President will surely have a significant influence in the tone of cross-Strait relations in the short to medium term.
Taiwan is an outlier on the international stage. As tensions continue to rise, more and more, the country will look west for international allies – countries that feel brave enough to aggravate China; doing so, will almost certainly come at an economic cost. The UK and US are not currently ready to take that step, and it is a near certainty that neither will speak on the issue until the situation absolutely calls for it. Perhaps this is the reason as to why US military experts claim that anyone who thinks they know the answer to the China-Taiwan dilemma, does not understand the situation. Only time will tell which countries will come to Taiwan’s aid, if and when, China decides to turn the screw, or indeed, if the US has any substance behind their strategic ambiguity.
Image courtesy of Nhat Nguyen Hoang via Upsplash, ©2021. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
