Ten Years On, Scotland Remains Bitterly Divided on Independence

Oct 28

Oct 28 Ten Years On, Scotland Remains Bitterly Divided on Independence

On 18 September 2014, more than three million Scots went to the polls to answer possibly the most important political question of their lifetimes: “Should Scotland be an independent country?”. The referendum, often referred to as ‘indyref,’ returned a result of 55.3% to 44.7%, with the majority of Scots voting to remain a part of the United Kingdom. The debate, however, was far from over; ten years later, groups all over Scotland continue to demand another independence referendum. In the intervening decade, thousands have taken to the streets in Glasgow and Edinburgh, and every first minister of Scotland has created their own plan for independence.

While the SNP failed to retake a majority in the Scottish Parliament in the 2021 elections, their coalition with the Scottish Greens created a pro-independence bloc that made independence possible if a second referendum on the issue returned a majority ‘yes’ vote. This led to former First Minister and Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon attempting to jump-start the path towards Scottish independence in 2022 by calling for another referendum in October of the following year, with or without approval from Westminster. The resulting Scottish Independence Referendum Bill, passed through Scottish Parliament in June 2022, was, however, not self-executing like its 2014 counterpart. This meant it required further legislation by both Holyrood and Westminster should the referendum have led to a pro-independence result. Additionally, the 2014 referendum had been preceded by a transfer of powers through the Edinburgh Act, allowing the Scottish Parliament to administer the election. The proposed 2022 referendum enjoyed no such agreement, with the then-Prime Minister Boris Johnson rejecting Sturgeon’s request to transfer the appropriate power to Holyrood under Section 30 of the 1998 Scotland Act, adding to the growing list of Prime Ministers who had denied Scotland such power to hold an independence referendum. Sturgeon insisted the referendum would go on nevertheless.

This declaration was made in vain. Despite the Scottish Lord Advocate’s argument that the referendum bill was merely constitutive and was not binding like the 2014 referendum agreement, the UK Supreme Court ruled that the Scottish Parliament did not have the power to administer the proposed 2023 referendum. Instead, they reinforced the notion that any vote on Scottish independence required temporarily amending the 1707 Act of Union between the United Kingdom and Scotland, thus demanding an official deferral of power from Westminster. No such deferral was granted.

Even since 2022, however, the political landscape in which Scotland might negotiate its independence has changed drastically. While the SNP and Greens maintain a pro-independence majority in Scotland, the June 2024 General Election was a major blow to the SNP. For the first time since 2010, the majority of Scotland’s seats in UK Parliament are unionist; the SNP’s seats in Westminster were slashed from 48 to just 9, while Keir Stamer’s Labour Party picked up 36 within Scotland alone. The central belt of Scotland, including Glasgow and its surrounding counties, hotbeds of pro-independence voters in 2014, flipped almost unanimously to Labour.

“We failed to convince people of the urgency of independence in this election campaign,” said SNP leader and Scottish First Minister John Swinney, though this perspective fails to acknowledge that factors outside of the independence cause led to the SNP’s downfall. Popular support for the SNP has waned because of scandals involving potential fraud and misallocation of campaign funds, with Nicola Sturgeon’s husband arrested under suspicion of embezzlement. What’s more, the resignation of then-First Minister Hamza Yusef over the fallout with the Scottish Greens undermined the internal cohesion within the party and shook the confidence of the voting public.

These scandals, coupled with predictions of a Labour landslide that contributed to the UK’s lowest turnout rates in decades and a belief that the path to an independence referendum may be legally impossible, led to a huge loss for the independence cause at the national level. However, some polling suggests that independence is more popular than the recent election would suggest, as many former SNP voters turn to other parties in the wake of the controversies outlined above. This shift in mentality has been driven by Brexit, which many Scots view as a blight on the nation’s economy. Former Scottish Labour leader Kezia Dougdale noted that the majority of voters who were undecided in the 2014 independence referendum voted to remain in the 2016 European Union Membership Referendum, concluding that, “if presented with a binary choice of an independent Scotland in Europe with a progressive leader or staying in the UK [...] they’re choosing the progressive independent Scotland in Europe. Brexit has changed people’s minds.” The electoral defeat of the Conservatives who engineered Britain's exit from the EU may alter this mindset, though Starmer’s declaration that Britain will not rejoin the EU during his term as Labour leader suggests that independence is the only route for EU supporters in Scotland.

SNP supporters have used EU membership as an additional incentive, writing in their ‘Building A New Scotland” independence strategy that ascension in the European Union will occur “smoothly and quickly.” Many are sceptical of this claim, however, given the growing distance between EU and UK regulations following the official ‘hard split’ between the two on 31 December, 2020; experts estimate the transition period would last 4-5 years at a minimum, a much longer estimate than rosy SNP predictions. This transition period would likely include a temporary reliance on Sterling as currency, which would leave Scotland incapable of creating their own monetary policy. Questions about oil and gas reserves also create challenging questions for UK-Scottish relations, as the two would be expected under UN law to reach an agreement about their possession of various natural offshore resources, including wind, carbon capture, and, most importantly, the oil and gas that makes up more than 11% of Scotland's GDP.

Even pro-independence voters do not agree on how to go about Scotland’s potential transition. Members of the growing Alba Party, for one, have called for a quick and clean break from the UK without temporary economic reliance, in opposition to the SNP’s more transitional approach. Alba’s leader, the late Alex Salmond, has suggested a forceful departure from the UK by gaining a ‘supermajority’ in Scottish Parliament through a SNP and Alba coalition, which would then allow for changes to Scotland’s electoral rules. Some have called for a long-term reliance on British currency, while others wish for an immediate transition to the Euro.

Nevertheless, all independence politicians remain hopeful that another referendum may soon be possible. The Scottish Parliament continues to allocate money to a potential referendum in the hope that the SNP-led Holyrood might one day break through the administrative deadlock and establish another independence vote. While recent polling estimates the gap between pro and anti-independence voters has widened to 44% and 56% respectively, historical data shows that a much larger gap was closed before the last referendum. In the leadup to the 2014 vote, pro-independence polling jumped 14 percentage points.

Still, the independence movement may be forced into limbo until the 2026 Scottish Parliament Elections, as a recent amendment suggested that the election would be used by the SNP as a de-facto referendum vote given Westminster’s unwillingness to allow an official vote. Doubts have sprung up within the party about its viability in the next election, with many questioning Swinney’s leadership. On the other hand, some pundits believe previous Labour voters may be uneasy with the Labour-Tory unionist alliance, driving them to the SNP. Regardless of their party affiliation, Scots are united on the most important issues: NHS reform, tackling the cost of living crisis, and education infrastructure. Whether Scotland believes these issues are best tackled by a united front between Holyrood and Westminster, or by an independent Scottish nation is yet to be seen.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.