The Effect of Climate Change on Regional Instability
Yuval Harari considers famine, plague, and war to be issues of the past in his book Homo Deus. While we cannot claim to have completely eradicated famine, plague and war, most communities rarely wake up in the morning to these worries. However, climate change has the ability to disrupt the peace that we have found.
Our advances towards the possibility of immortality and a relatively peaceful modernisation are at a much greater risk than we may realise. Although the Paris Agreement sets a longterm goal of keeping the level of warming to below 2℃ from pre-industrial times, this amount of change in climate will lead us to see an increase in violent conflict of up to 13%. However, without enacting policies to curb the level of warming in the atmosphere, scientists predict that a 4℃ increase in global temperatures will be reached. In turn, we can expect up to a 26% increase in violence and armed conflict, all but ensuring a less peaceful global future.
A study conducted by Stanford University in June 2019 brings this issue to the forefront of conversation, as it explains the link between changes in climate and the stress that this puts on socioeconomic systems. The study states that understanding the threat that climate change poses to regional stability can help researchers create solutions for climate change as well as mitigate armed conflict.
As discussed by Katharine Mach, director of the Stanford Climate Assessment Facility, ‘appreciating the role of climate change and its security impacts is important not only for understanding the social costs of our continuing heat-trapping emissions but for prioritising responses, which could include aid and cooperation.’
Climate change has already stoked conflict that has been deeply felt around the world. When examining the years leading up to Syria’s Civil War, one of the glaring catalysts is the drought that plagued the Fertile Crescent from 2006 to 2007. This was the longest and most severe drought recorded — and climate scientist Colin P. Kelly attributed it to the changes in climate. The severe drought had an immense impact on agricultural areas and the people who make a living off of farming that land. In the Syrian countryside, farmers were unable to sustain themselves, forcing them to move into cities in search of work. With an already scarce pool of resources and jobs, this extra strain on the environment and economy pushed the country towards revolution. This issue reincarnates the concern of famine, bringing to light a cause for war.
It is important to note that climate change does not serve as a single catalyst of conflict, as no conflict can be attributed to one specific cause. It was also importantly noted, that the agricultural policies that President Bashar al-Assad put in place exacerbated the Syrian civil war by reducing subsidies and mismanaging resources. This quickly spiralled out of control when the regime attacked farm equipment and food stocks in an attempt to starve out rebel areas.
Large scale social conflicts are often provoked by a myriad of issues. Conflicts stoked by climate change will likely be seen more severely in areas that do not have a stable government and infrastructure already in place. This can be seen in the Syrian War, where the government lacked the infrastructure to withstand severe climate changes, like the drought in the Fertile Crescent.
Some regions and states are at more of a risk of climate change provoked conflict than others. Foreign Affairs highlights some of the risk factors including; ‘a high level of dependence on agriculture, a recent history of conflict, and discriminatory political institutions.’ Areas with these risk factors are likely to experience famine/food crises, violence and displacement. Some of the countries at the highest risk include India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Myanmar, Yemen, and many countries in central Africa.
However, the conflicts do not always stay contained in the regions and states in which they are started. Through migration and acts of terror, these conflicts affect all parts of the world. This shows the importance of climate change mitigation and the requirement of a global cooperative solution.
As global temperatures continue to rise, there will undoubtedly be more conflict that can be heavily attributed to changes in the environment — leading to civil unrest, and societies competing for food, water, and other natural resources. Climate change is an under-researched determinant of civil unrest that is not receiving a high level of commitment to allocate resources aimed at mitigation. While there are countless hardships caused by the changes in climate, studying the effects will help to create solutions for regions that are particularly subjected to these issues.
