The Malian Coup: Implications for Mali and the Region
On August 18th, and for the second time in 10 years, the Malian government fell to a military coup, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta. Mali, a country in northwestern Africa, gained independence in 1960 from France, and has experienced three coups before 2020, in 1968, 1991, and 2012. In a similar pattern to other military takeovers, the day of the coup ended with former President Ibrahim Boubacar Keïta resigning from power, dissolving the government, and stating that he wanted “no blood to be spilled to keep [him] in power.” The military officers, led by Goïta, declared control over Mali. In September, the newly formed National Committee for the Salvation of the People, headed by Goïta, agreed to an 18-month interim government to lead Mali until national elections could be held. Bah Ndaw was appointed President, with Goïta serving as Vice President. Only three months removed from the coup, the implications of the coup are beginning to emerge. The Malian Coup will send shockwaves through the system, having an impact on the state, the region, and the international community, and its importance should not be understated.
Military coups are often successive, and there is a chance that another could occur in Mali, further destabilizing the country. The pattern of coups in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) has shown that they are cyclical, of the 30 states that have experienced successful coups in SSA, 18 states, or 37.5% have experienced multiple, successive coups. Thus, there are concerns that further coups might occur within Mali as a result of the August coup, which would further destabilize the system. There is also a chance that the implications of the coup could spread beyond the Malian borders. Burkina Faso (Presidential & National Assembly), Ghana (Presidential & National Assembly), Guinea (Presidential), and Niger (Presidential & National Assembly) are all due for elections in the upcoming months, and there are concerns that the Malian coup will create shockwaves with a possible spillover of violence and uprisings. The international community, and the Economic Community of West African States (ECoWAS) were quick to condemn the coup leaders due to the possible impact on other states in West Africa, who they feared might be inspired by the Malian coup and threaten sustained democracy in the region. The possibility of spillover is a consequence that could impact the stability of Mali and, potentially, the entirety of West Africa.
In addition, Mali is a strategic partner in counterterrorism efforts, and it’s possible that the military coup will damage relationships with external partners and lead to gains by the Islamic extremist groups in the Sahel, as it did in the wake of the 2012 Malian Coup. In 2012, Islamic insurgents captured a large portion of the northern region of Mali, due in part to the lack of firm leadership and military forces to oppose the terrorists, which forced French troops to step in to provide aid. The Sahel region includes Senegal, Mauritania, Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Nigeria, Chad, Sudan and Eritrea, and serves as a front against Islamic terrorism in Africa. However, with Mali currently in a leadership void, the stability of ongoing counterterrorism efforts in the region are threatened. The United States, which serves as a key partner in counterinsurgency, by law, cannot give military aid to governments formed in the wake of military coups. France, who has served as a strategic partner since leaving Mali in 1960, is questioning their ability to cooperate with the new government and are worried about continuing operations without government approval. In addition, the G5 Sahel members (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and Niger) have condemned the military coup for similar reasons. Ultimately, Mali has served as a leader in the counter-terrorism efforts of the region in the past, and the military coup has created doubt as to the stability of these continued efforts and whether the insurgency will benefit from the turnover.
Despite international condemnation of the military takeover in Mali, the Malian people support the actions of the military leaders. As with many Sub-Saharan African coups, the promise of a better government, engaged in less corrupt activities, often encourages popular support. It is too early to predict whether the coup will continue to be seen as a force for good by Malians. However, even three months removed, the possible implications of the military coup on the stability of Mali and West Africa should not be understated. It has inspired concern about the continued safety of democracy and protection against Islamic insurgency in the north. The event caught very little media attention, barely making headlines at the time in occurred, however, it will likely be a significant event in African politics, and its importance to the greater world should not be ignored.
Image courtesy of SKopp, 2005, public domain.
