The Navalny Protests: Should Putin Be Afraid?
January 23rd, 2021 was the start of one of the largest anti-government protest movements in Russia in almost a decade. On the first day, protests in support of opposition leader Alexei Navalny erupted in 198 Russian cities despite below freezing temperatures. Since then, more than 5,000 people have been arrested and many protestors have been met with violent police repression. In many ways, the aggressive law enforcement tactics being used against protestors reflects President Putin’s readiness to move toward authoritarianism in order to preserve his power, as well as his anxiety over Navalny’s popularity.
The protests began after corruption activist and Putin’s biggest critic, Alexei Navalny was arrested on January 17th for violating the terms of his probation from an embezzlement case that the European Court of Human Rights declared illegitimate. He was arrested immediately when he entered Russia from Berlin where he had been recovering from poisoning by the illegal Novichok nerve agent. Although the Kremlin denies any responsibility for the poisoning, Navalny has accused President Vladimir Putin of organizing the poisoning, and a number of states have imposed sanctions on Russian officials. While in jail, Navalny released a video exposé accusing Putin of corruption and urged the Russian people to take to the streets in protest. On February 2nd, Navalny was given a prison sentence of over two and a half years.
While it was Navalny’s poisoning and imprisonment that has spurred the protest movements, the public’s resentment over the poor economic conditions throughout Russia have provided even more political fuel for the nationwide protests. The recent Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the long-standing structural problems that plague the nation such as underfunded hospitals and a high degree of corruption. As the pandemic began to destabilize the world’s economy, the Russian government abandoned a $360 billion investment plan that would have increased funding to poor regions, and instead focused on protecting its own National Wealth Fund. Russian real income has fallen over the years and rising costs, lower pensions, and declining wages have left many Russian dissatisfied with Putin’s policies.
The protests in Moscow were met with an unprecedently large number of riot police in black helmets and body armor who locked down the center of the city. This large-scale police crackdown witnessed in the capital was mirrored in most cities across the nation, reflecting the growing anxiety within the Kremlin over the national protests which have unified Russian peoples of all ages and ideologies. Reports of taser-like weapons and tear gas in Moscow and St Petersburg demonstrate the extent to which the Kremlin is seeking to display their strength. In any case, it is dangerous to protest in Russia, so the fact that so many people have continued to show support for protests despite the heavy police presence is significant.
The protests in Russia are notable for a couple of reasons. For one, the protests are not just happening in ‘liberal cities’ like Moscow or St. Petersburg, they have spread to Siberia and the frozen city of Yakutsk. Because of the large scope of the protests, it is impossible for Putin to blame the anti-government sentiment on just one region or group of people. Furthermore, it is not only Navalny’s supporters that have taken to the streets in protest. One woman who spoke to interviewers said she does not support Navalny’s politics but has been participating in protests to oppose the economic gap between the elite and ordinary people. Research conducted in Moscow found that 42% of those protesting had never protested before. Another interesting element of the Navalny protests is the variation in age across the resistance movement. Although most of the protestors are young, many people involved in the protests belonged to the older generation, which is supposed to be Putin’s political base.
The question now is, will the nationwide protests succeed in making any real change? Does Putin have cause for concern? Whether the protests continue with fervor or fizzle out depends on more than just Navalny himself. While the unjust treatment of Navalny was the catalyst for these demonstrations, dissatisfaction with President Putin goes far deeper, and the draconian police measures against protestors will likely contribute to the protesters’ resolve, both current and future. Many people in Russia were supportive of Putin in the 2000s, but the economic stagnation, restrictions on civil liberties, and government corruption has caused the president’s popularity rating to plummet since last year.
Police aggression against protestors and widespread detention of dissidents has warranted condemnation from international governments. The new Secretary of State Antony Blinken denounced the “persistent use of harsh tactics against peaceful protestors and journalists”. In turn, the Russian Foreign Ministry accused Blinken of “gross interference”and of supporting protestors who are violating the law. In a speech at the US State Department on Feburary 4th, President Biden emphasized the necessity of democratic values and that there would be consequences for Russia if President Putin continued his antagonistic activities. The US is said to be preparing a sanctions package against Russia in coordination with European allies, which would mark the new administration’s first steps in holding Russia accountable for failing to preserve human rights and civil liberties.
Despite international support for his cause, past statements by Navalny that are seen as racist and xenophobic may be stifling support for his cause. The NGO Amnesty International has withdrawn Navalny’s status of a “prisoner of conscience”, which designated him as someone who is imprisoned for their beliefs. Navalny fell short of meeting the criteria for this title due to his nationalist comments and statements that reached the “threshold of advocacy of hatred”.Navalny has never retracted these statements.
In all, the protests prove that patriotic fervor following Putin’s annexation of Crimea have worn off, and citizens are now disillusioned with the growing economic inequality between ordinary people and the country’s elite. Small towns and cities, which normally do not participate in political activism, were involved in the nation-wide protest movement, despite freezing cold conditions. Criticism of President Putin is no longer confined to the younger generation or main cities and discontent with the economy and the corrupt behavior of the government’s elite has awakened activism across the entirety of the nation’s population. While it is unlikely the protests in Russia will succeed in removing Putin from office, similar to the protest movements in Belarus, Putin and his government regime have lost both domestic and international legitimacy. As the elections in September creep closer, it will be interesting to see if Navalny’s movement can carry itself far enough to oust incumbents of the ruling party.
Image courtesy of Ludvig14 via Wikimedia, ©2021, some rights reserved.
