Turkey's Delicate Balancing Act: Mediating the Somalia-Ethiopia Crisis
In the complex web of Horn of Africa politics, Turkey has emerged as an unlikely yet increasingly influential mediator in the ongoing tensions between Somalia and Ethiopia. While encouraging, the Turkish intervention has become less effective due to competing interests and the intricate power dynamics within the region. This crisis, which was provoked by Ethiopia's signing of the controversial port deal with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, puts Turkey in a very precarious position. Being a major investor and strategic partner to both, the mediation reflects both an opportunity and a risk for its regional ambitions.
Turkey's position as mediator is unique because it is an interested party. Given that it has its largest overseas military base in Mogadishu and sizeable investments in both countries, regional stability remains an urgent Turkish interest. That involvement serves as a double-edged sword in its mediation endeavours. Maintaining that delicate balance between protecting investments and maintaining diplomatic credibility has grown increasingly problematic as regional tensions escalate.
Interestingly, the Turkish mediation role shows a sophisticated comprehension of the regional dynamics, relying not only on traditional diplomacy but also on its multi-dimensional presence in the region by intertwining economic incentives with military cooperation and cultural ties to influence both parties. This holistic approach sets Turkish mediation apart from other international efforts which often mostly depend on diplomatic pressure. The military training programs carried out by Turkey with both nations have created important channels for dialogue, complementing its diplomatic efforts.
For Turkey, economic investments in the region are both a motivator and a tool of mediation. In Somalia, Turkish companies manage critical infrastructure, including the Mogadishu port and airport. Meanwhile, significant investments in Ethiopian manufacturing and agriculture give Turkey considerable influence in Addis Ababa. However, these very investments that provide leverage also make Turkey vulnerable to regional instability. The scale of Turkish economic involvement – estimated to be billions of dollars across both countries – means that any deterioration in regional relations could have severe consequences for Turkey .
Turkish companies’ management of Mogadishu's port brings in another added layer of complexity to Turkey's stance on the Ethiopia-Somaliland port deal. As much as Turkey needs to appear neutral, its economic interests align more closely with Somalia's opposition to the deal -- a development which might be costly for Turkey's credibility as a neutral mediator. This has indeed not gone unnoticed by Ethiopian officials, who have occasionally questioned Turkey's objectivity in the mediation process.
Historical and cultural affiliations make Turkish mediation efforts more than just an interest in economic gains. The Ottoman legacy in the region, in addition to the fact that Turkey is a Muslim-majority country, provides the cultural capital that most Western mediators lack. This cultural affinity allows Turkish diplomats to engage with local stakeholders in ways that may not be possible for other international actors. These cultural bonds have been strengthened by Turkish educational exchange programs and religious cooperation initiatives, therefore creating additional channels for informal diplomacy.
The complexity of Turkey's mediation efforts is further compounded by broader regional power dynamics. Gulf states, particularly the UAE, have their own interests in the Horn of Africa and view Turkey's expanding influence with concern. The competition between these middle powers has created a multilayered diplomatic environment where mediation efforts are often affected by rivalries and alliances that extend far beyond the immediate dispute.
The involvement of other regional powers, particularly the UAE and Egypt, complicates Turkey's position. These nations view Turkey's expanding influence in the Horn of Africa with suspicion, potentially undermining its mediation efforts. Moreover, the fundamental issue at stake – Ethiopia's desperate need for port access versus Somalia's territorial integrity concerns – may prove too intractable for any single mediator to resolve. Turkey's close ties to both parties, while providing unique opportunities for dialogue, also make it difficult to push for tough compromises without risking its relationships with either nation.
For Turkey's mediation efforts to succeed, several key factors must be addressed. First, Turkey needs to maintain its delicate balancing act while being more transparent about its own interests in the region. Acknowledging these interests, rather than attempting to appear completely neutral, could actually enhance Turkey's credibility as a mediator who understands the stakes involved. Second, Turkey should leverage its regional presence to create incentives for compromise. This could include developing alternative economic arrangements that address Ethiopia's port access needs while respecting Somalia's sovereignty concerns. Turkey's infrastructure experience and investment capacity make it uniquely positioned to propose creative solutions.
The Somalia-Ethiopia crisis represents a critical test for Turkey's aspirations as a regional power broker. Success would make the nation an indispensable player in the politics of the Horn of Africa, whilst any failure to succeed would undermine its broader ambitions in the region. The outcome will likely influence Turkey's future role not only in the Horn of Africa, but across the entire continent. The outcome could serve as a model for how middle powers can use economic and cultural links to facilitate conflict resolution in complex regional disputes. However, it also highlights the challenges faced by mediators who have significant stakes in the conflicts they seek to resolve.
As the crisis continues to unfold, Turkey's ability to maintain credibility while protecting its interests will be crucial. Whether it can transform its regional influence into effective conflict resolution will not only affect the future of the Horn of Africa but also shape the evolution of international mediation in an increasingly multipolar world. The success or failure of Turkey's mediation efforts may well determine the future trajectory of similar interventions by regional powers in complex international disputes.
Image courtesy of Ilyas Ahmed via Wikimedia Commons, ©2015. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
