UAE Involvement and the Challenges of Finding Peace in the Sudanese Conflict

Oct 28

Oct 28 UAE Involvement and the Challenges of Finding Peace in the Sudanese Conflict

Sudan has frequently been a target of foreign intervention, which has contributed to the conflicts that have played out on its soil. The country’s wealth of natural resources and location in a strategically important area explains the number of states which seek to project their power by intervening in Sudan. This continues today, as foreign interests converge with the goals of combatants on the ground, further fueling the current civil war.

Tensions had been mounting in Sudan before fighting broke out in its capital of Khartoum on 15 April 2023. It is not known whether the Sudanese Armed Forced (SAF), who are loyal to the de-facto ruler Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, or the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), led by Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo (Hemedti), attacked first. Citizens could hear gunfire throughout Khartoum as the fighting spread throughout the city. In the coming months, the conflict would spread even further across the country.

The RSF had long been a partner of al-Burhan’s military government due to their teamwork in overthrowing the previous government, led by Omar al-Bashir, in 2019. After finding it difficult to integrate the RSF and SAF into one force, tensions rose again. Now, the RSF have been able to gain control of most of Khartoum and have expanded outwards, seizing much of its home base, the Darfur region, and parts of the Kordofan region.

Recently, the SAF have launched a major offensive to try to retake Khartoum, which is currently under RSF control. They hope to reassert their power over the country through control of the capital. According to Armed Conflict Location and Events Data, the scale of the SAF operation put the RSF into a defensive position, resulting in territorial losses. Overall, the offensive has led to an escalation of violence in the capital, without any progress towards the conflict’s end, which is crucial as the humanitarian situation continues to deteriorate.

With intense fighting spread across the country, the humanitarian situation has become dire. The United Nations Office for Coordinated Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) estimates that 10.9 million people are to be displaced and malnutrition and starvation have become major concerns. Diseases like cholera, malaria, measles, rubella, and dengue fever are breaking out across the country because of a lack of healthcare.

The conflict has led to a major refugee crisis as the humanitarian situation worsens. According to data from the United Nations High Commission on Refugees, millions of people have been flooding to Egypt, South Sudan, and Chad. In South Sudan, armed conflict had already displaced around 2 million people; the added strain on refugee camps has deteriorated the camps’ living conditions. Even those internally displaced face a serious lack of aid, as the active war zone makes access to humanitarian aid more difficult for aid agencies. All reporting on the situation in Sudan therefore emphasises the need for an immediate ceasefire and peace talks by external actors.

According to a United States Institute of Peace report, U.S. led peace talks have not been able to bring an agreement between the warring parties. The SAF declined to send a delegation to the peace talks held in Geneva in August of this year, which showed that the international pressure was not significant enough to force them to participate. Talks were still held with the RSF delegation and other international actors, including the co-hosts Saudi Arabia and Switzerland. Observers also joined the talks, including Egypt, the UAE, the African Union and the United Nations. They discussed ways to improve the humanitarian situation in the country, but were unable to make headway on an agreement without the SAF’s presence.

The UAE has claimed that their role in the conflict is only as a provider of humanitarian aid. However, evidence shared by the New York Times in September 2023 suggested that the cargo the UAE claimed was exclusively humanitarian aid may have also been carrying military supplies for the RSF. This evidence was confirmed on 15 October of this year by the Washington Post. The Post’s Journalists were inspected weapons captured from the RSF, which carried labels showing they came from the UAE, making the UAE’s support for the RSF a near certainty.

Katharine Houreld and Hafiz Haroun in the Washington Post article, claim that the UAE’s motivation for supporting the RSF is primarily because of their interest in controlling Red Sea shipping but also because of their interest in Sudanese agriculture and gold. The New York Times claimed that support for the RSF is part of a wider plan to use it “vast wealth and sophisticated armory to position itself as a key player and sometimes kingmaker across Africa.”

Since the UAE has a role in both the humanitarian situation and peace talks, this has significant implications. Because the UAE supports the RSF, some suggest that their role in peace talks represents a conflict of interest that may make an agreement harder to come to. However, in a recent report, The Crisis Group stresses that ‘Egyptian-Emirati diplomacy could play a vital role in bringing hostilities to a close, given the countries’ respective sway over opposite sides.’

While this argument is compelling, there are two complications. First, while it is likely true that the UAE could have sway over the RSF in talks, it may make SAF compliance less likely if they feel that talks biased toward the RSF, especially considering the SAF has received less foreign support. Second, recent findings show that both the government forces and RSF are intentionally using starvation as a weapon. According to UN experts, the warring parties have been blocking humanitarian aid and workers and local volunteers have been intentionally targeted by combatants. This brings the UAE’s intentions as a participant in peace talks and a provider of humanitarian aid into question, as they support the military efforts of a party using starvation as a tactic.

The UAE’s relationship with the RSF is a clear indicator that external interest is complicating the provision of humanitarian aid and peace talks in Sudan. Emirati involvement is having unprecedented consequences as the humanitarian situation becomes more dire and other states in the region are impacted.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.