Uncharted Waters for Japan: What Does the Recent Parliamentary Election Mean for the Nation's Future?
In this era marked by critical elections and political uncertainty, Japan's recent election represents a pivotal moment for the country's future, in which October 27th is marked as a turning point. Politics in Japan has been moving at a rapid pace over the recent months after Fumino Kishida made a surprise decision to step down from office in August. Looking further into the past, since Shinzo Abe was assassinated in July 2022, exposed ties between his party, the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), a conservative party, and the Unification Church which many regard as a cult. Abe’s assassination brought up many issues with the LDP, and brought the public to have sympathy for the assassin and anger at Abe. Since this event, the public has scrutinized the LDP more publicly which was expected to play a role in the election, but the loss of the majority in parliament was unexpected, especially when the president of the LDP himself called for the snap election.
The previous prime minister, Fumino Kishida, reflected the fault lines in his party and the public’s distrust by not seeking another term as the prime minister. Kishida committed Japan to double its annual defense spending to 2% of GDP by 2027 while also pushing Japan to develop its missile counter-strike capability. Japan's defense and military spending and development have been something to consider throughout the election. Kishida supported Ukraine in 2022 and imposed sanctions along with the G7. Foreign affairs were Kishida's strong suit, while he fell short with the domestic. Kishida promised a ‘new form of capitalism,’ although this was quite vague and did not give a coherent economic vision for the future of Japan.
An understanding of the candidates and their platforms is critical to have when looking at how this election marks a turning point in Japanese politics. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has governed in coalition with Komeito since 1999, but then lost its majority in the lower house of the parliament for the first time in 15 years. The coalition took 215 seats, 178 fewer than they needed or a simple majority in the chamber with 465 seats. A funding scandal was the face of the election, and a key reason as to why the LDP lost seats.
Dozens of JDP lawmakers were accused of pocketing proceeds from fundraising events. People in Japan are struggling with high prices, while millions are being pocketed by the ruling party. The LDP also had ties with the controversial Unification Church which has often been described as a cult. LDP’s new leader, Shigeru Ishiba, and the new prime minister vowed to stay in office despite their loss of parliamentary majority.
The largest opposition is the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP), which increased its seats from 98 to 148. The Japan Innovation Party (Ishin) lost six seats to 38, and the National Democratic Party (NDP) gained 21 seats to 28. Looking back to 1989, the LDP lost the majority of the majority seats to the Social Democratic Party of Japan in the Upper House Election. Four years later, the LDP would lose its power, which triggered a political wave in Japan of short-lived prime ministers and political uncertainty.
The election results reveal key aspects about the state of Japanese politics and what could come next. Prime Minister Ishiba’s snap election gamble failed. His goal was to strengthen the LDP and stabilize his administration, but by losing the majority, his party has been weakened even further. Ishiba is a non-mainstream member of the LDP and advocated to change the LDP structure and government policies to ensure more transparency on what the party uses its public funds for in light of the recent controversy. However, when Ishiba became the prime minister, he carried on the mainstream policies of the LDP and abandoned the critical stance that he was elected on.
Another aspect of this election to consider is the future of the CDP, the party that increased its seats and is the LDP’s largest opposition. The CDP is plagued with internal division, especially regarding the possibility of forming a coalition with the opposition. Now, with the NDP becoming the minority ruling party they are in a place where they will be able to work with the CDP in order to pass their agenda. Thus, they can advocate for their policy of substantial tax cuts through the expansion of tax credits which they have been hoping for a long time, but now they can utilize the ruling coalition's lack of majority. At this moment, the NDP has not chosen to form a coalition with the LDP and enter the government as they would have to become involved with the LDP’s immense inner turmoil.
Despite the LDP losing its majority, Ishiba has won a run-off vote in parliament to stay as prime minister on the 11th of November, despite critics saying that his time of rule would soon be over. Ishiba will have to consider pressing domestic economic issues, especially the weak yen and soaring inflation. With the recent news of Trump being elected for President next term, considering Japan's relationship with the United States (US) is necessary. Ishibas weak domestic position could influence Japan's potential collaboration with the US. Ishibas predecessors promised to increase defense spending which he might struggle to achieve. Trump could potentially apply new trade tariffs on Japanese steel which would hurt Japanese exporters. In Trump's first administration, he attempted to pressure Japan to pay more for the cost of 50,000 US troops in Japan and to buy expensive American weapons.
Weak leadership in Japanese domestic policies could influence Japan's role on the global stage. At a time of heightened tension in the Asia-Pacific, Ishiba must demonstrate that he can manage international affairs despite domestic issues. The future is unclear with Ishiba as president and his party no longer in the majority. Many say that Japan could return to a period of short-lived government. This national unity government is unstable, but it does have the potential to see through to the next election.
Image courtesy of Manami Yamada via Reuters, ©2024. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
