The Winners and Losers of the Irish General Election
Now that the dust has begun to settle and talks of coalition governments start to gain momentum, we can begin to look at who the “winners” and the “losers” are from the recent Irish general election. What do we mean by “winners” and “losers” when no new government has been formed yet? Realistically it can be measured by the seats won or lost and the condition the party finds themselves in going into the next Dáil compared to their previous strength.
The biggest winner is undoubtedly Micheál Martin’s Fianna Fáil, which won 48 seats in the Dáil, a large number but far from the 88 seats needed to form a majority government. A coalition formed with Fine Gael support, the other main party in the last coalition government, would still be two seats short of a majority. This, however, does leave Martin with the most influence over forming the next government, in which he will presumably be the Taoiseach. Top members of Fianna Fáil have stated that it is unlikely a new government will be formed before Christmas, although current Taoiseach Simon Harris and Micheál Martin have stated that “good progress is being made in discussions between their parties”. Ireland has become more diverse politically in recent years, meaning the days of parties winning a majority in the Dáil are past. Winning a plurality, as Fianna Fáil has, is the biggest electoral victory a party can expect.
The Social Democrats can also count themselves as winners, climbing from six to 11 seats in the wake of the Green Party’s collapse and a leftward shift among many voters. These 11 seats also put the Social Democrats in a strong position as a potential third partner in the increasingly likely Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael coalition. Indeed, this week the Social Democrats began preliminary talks with both parties about forming a coalition government. Social Democrat deputy leader Cian O’Callaghan said that the meetings had been “positive and constructive with a good exchange of views”. Fine Gael deputy leader Helen McEntee echoed this optimism, describing the talks from her party’s perspective as a “very positive engagement”. The Social Democrats increasing their votes and becoming a potentially serious part of the next coalition government is a huge result for the party.
Now onto the election’s losers. The Green Party, who held 13 seats as the third party in the last government, have been nearly wiped out, winning only one seat. This is a disheartening result for a party whose influence in the last government, according to its leader Roderic O’Gorman, allowed the delivery of “real climate action that has improved people’s lives”. Veterans of the party, like Ciarán Cuffe, have argued its collapse is due to the “small-party incumbency” of the coalition causing the Greens to be the “fall guys” of the failings of previous government, with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael treating them as scapegoats. Whatever the reason–and there are a few to choose from–the Greens cannot see this result as anything other than a major loss and a monumental setback for their long-term goals.
Evaluating Sinn Féin’s electoral successes is a bit more complex than that of the Green’s great fall. Sinn Féin received 39 seats, making them the second largest party, and establishing themselves as a third major party in Irish Politics. Undoubtably a success, right? Well not exactly. They had been poling at 29% in December 2023, 9% more than anyone else, and as recently as May 2024 they polled at 26% (their lead dropping to 6%). For a party with such high hopes, coming second and having no real prospects of forming a government is a loss. It is not all ‘doom and gloom’, though: as mentioned, they are now a major political player in the Republic of Ireland and are the second largest party in the Dáil. Further, they can now look to build on this new platform as the opposition and seek further electoral success at the next elections.
Where does Fine Gael fit in? They are somewhere in between the winners and losers. They are looking to return to government as a major partner in whatever the coalition government will look like, although they are in a far weaker position going into negotiations this time around, with 10 seats less than Fianna Fáil. Their electoral losses may now have demoted them to a ‘junior partner’ in a Fianna Fáil led government. We will have to wait and see what will happen with the negotiations likely to last until the new year as mentioned by party sources.
The 2024 Irish General Election might not be a key feature in the history of Irish politics. On the surface it merely looks as if the status quo of the previous 4 years of coalition government and the previous 92 years of a government led by either Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael was maintained. However, a more careful look into the results reveals that the two-party grip on Irish Politics has perhaps loosened. With Sinn Féin now solidifying their claim as a major party and a FF-FG coalition again requiring a third partner, Irish Politics is less dominated by two parties. We will have to wait and see, but it could be that in the years to come we look back at this election as the beginning of the end of the two-party domination of Irish Politics.
Image courtesy of Patrick Hugh Lynch via Wikimedia, ©2024 . Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
