What future threat does ISIS pose?

President Trump has heralded the killing of Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi by US special forces as the end of ISIS. Following their split for Al-Qaeda 2013, the group enjoyed rapid success capturing large swaths of Syria and Iraq, at their peak controlling an area larger than Britain. However, they have since been ground down by a collation of foreign air power and local ground forces until their last sliver of territory in Syria was lost earlier this year. The death of their leader seems to be the final nail in the coffin. Baghdadi was a charismatic figurehead who was recognised all over the world. Everyone from mainstream western media to jihadist Facebook and Twitter accounts broadcast footage of his victory sermon in Mosul in 2014, and his loss will represent a severe blow to the group's image. It follows the loss of its vast territory and revenue. Through taxation and oil sales, the group became one of the wealthiest terrorist organisations ever. Now they will have to return to more traditional sources of income such as kidnapping, extortion and the black market. 

However, despite these setbacks, the group still operates an insurgency which threatens regional stability. Attacks continue throughout Syria and Iraq as well as in various other countries where the group operates such as Libya, Yemen and the Philippines. Some analysts even claim the death of Baghdadi will allow these affiliated groups to work more independently pursuing alternatives goals and forming alliances with other local groups.  The instability that ISIS feeds off shows no signs of abating. Riots in Bagdad reveal the Iraqi government is far from stable. The civil war continues in Syria, and the withdrawal of thousands of US troops embedded with their Kurdish allies places the anti-ISIS collation at risk. Thousands of former foreign ISIS fighters in prisons and detention camps under Kurdish control now have an opportunity to escape. ISIS supporting women and children reside in refugee camps openly declaring their allegiance to the group and its radical ideology. In al-Hawl in northern Syria, there has been violence against refugees who disobey ISIS doctrine. A new generation is growing up in these camps being radicalised and proclaiming their intention to become future fighters. The current US administration has been incoherent regarding Syria. It seems to be moving away from supporting critical allies on the ground in favour of using special forces raids and missile strikes that look dramatic and create headlines but fail to help stabilise the situation in the long term and prevent a resurgence of radical groups. 

Amongst all the chaos Baghdadi was in the home of an al-Qaeda affiliate leader suggesting he was possibly seeking to reunify the two groups. Such an alliance would be a nightmare for counter-terrorism officials seeking to disrupt the operations of both. The compound was only a few miles from the Turkish border, which points to a worrying lapse in intelligence capability for one of the most prominent players in the region. Relations between the US and Turkey have been deteriorating for a while, and a lack of communication and cooperation between the two NATO allies could give ISIS the breathing space it needs to regroup and reorganise.   

So long as the idea of the Islamic state exists in the minds of radicals, it will continue to pose a threat to regional and international security regardless of what President Trump says or thinks. The main focus of the international community should be on stabilising Syria and ensuring that the numerous refugee camps that have become tiny ISIS enclaves are emptied with foreign fighters being repatriated and imprisoned in their home countries. Iraqi instability must carefully be monitored, and world powers need to be ready to intervene and provide support should the situation deteriorate further. The US needs to commit more fully to the region. The betrayal of the Kurds could make it much harder for the US to recruit allies and partners, and this could leave Russia and Assad as the primary bulwark against future terrorist activity. In the long-term complacency could become the greatest threat as world powers refocus on their macro-level geopolitical struggles, forgetting the silent terror cells operating across the world out of sight out of mind.