When Nile Hegemony Ends: Egypt and the GERD
The Nile river is the lifeblood of Egyptian civilisation. Famously described by Herodotus as ‘the gift of the Nile,’ Egypt’s very success was built upon the fertility it provided to an otherwise deserted land. To this day, over 90% of Egyptians live on or in the areas surrounding the Nile, who depend upon it both for their livelihood and as their only water source. It will come as no surprise, therefore, that river diplomacy has been core to Cairo’s foreign policy, with the securing of agreements in 1929 and 1959 granting the country Nile hegemony. To Egyptians, control of the Nile is viewed as a birth right. Upstream, however, an ambitious Ethiopia has other plans for the river’s future.
Having been excluded from the 1959 bilateral agreement between Egypt and Sudan, which distributed the entirety of the Nile waters between the two states without any consideration of the other riparian nations, Ethiopia has long been discontent with the current arrangement. As the source of the Blue Nile, Ethiopia believes it too has the right to use the river to its own ends, viewing it as the countries ‘sacred duty’ to take advantage of it. And this is exactly what it has done.
In the 1950s and 60s, Ethiopia began planning for the construction of a new dam, now known as the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). Whilst strife at home and abroad meant that Ethiopia was in no place to challenge Egyptian hegemony at the time, the year 2011 provided the exact opportunity Ethiopia needed for two reasons. Firstly, under the leadership of former Prime Minister Meles Zenawi, the country had been through an extensive period of political stability and was now capable of mobilising its resources effectively. Secondly, the Egyptian Revolution and ousting of President Mubarak meant that Egypt could not assert itself coherently on the international stage. As such, in a move that blindsided the Egyptians, Ethiopia began building the GERD.
The GERD is the most ambitious feat of hydroelectrical engineering in Africa. Promising to produce over 6,000 megawatts of power, the dam would double Ethiopia’s electrical production. The project was subsequently framed by Zenawi as ‘a matter of national survival’ and crucial to Ethiopia’s development. From a foreign policy perspective, the dam’s success would garner Addis Ababa significant regional influence among its neighbours, who, particularly in Sudan, will gain from energy exports and better regulation of flood control. Egypt, however, is far from happy.
Just as the clogging of an artery can stop the functioning of the heart, so too can the damming of the Nile stop the functioning of Egypt. It is of no surprise that Cairo has presented the issue as an existential threat; if water supply were in any way restricted, particularly in a time of drought, the country would be thrown into turmoil. Egypt is already suffering from severe water shortages. The UN declares a country to be facing water scarcity if they fall below 1,000 cubic meters per person, and Egypt is currently sitting at around 570 cubic meters, largely as a result of leaky irrigation systems and the over-farming of thirsty crops. Egypt has every reason to fear a reduction in the Nile’s water levels, and will likely resort to any means possible were it pushed to the cliff’s edge.
However, there is currently no actual evidence that the GERD would disrupt Egypt’s water flow. Neither is there evidence that it would not, and this is the problem. Whilst the three main states involved (Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia) have been negotiating for almost a decade, there has been a complete absence of in-depth analysis into the impact of the dam on the downstream states. Ethiopia is mostly to blame for this. Addis Ababa has consistently prevented independent studies from being conducted, despite Egypt’s insistence that they be completed before its construction. This is the cause of this dispute; Ethiopia’s lack of transparency is feeding Egypt’s paranoia.
To make matters worse, and to the disdain of all external actors involved, in July of this year Ethiopia began the filling of GERD despite no legal framework or agreement being completed. This has received widespread international condemnation. The US in particular has hit back at Ethiopia, suspending approximately $130 million worth of aid packages. Tensions continue to mount, and, despite the stakes increasing by the day, no agreement seems to be in sight. Given the threats made by both states in the past, with Egypt stating it would do whatever it needed to maintain its rights over the Nile and Ethiopia claiming it would be willing to ‘mobilise millions’ in its defence, the failure of diplomacy could have catastrophic consequences.
How, then, are we to avoid confrontation in the region? Whilst the African Union, currently spearheaded by South Africa, is holding ongoing negotiations, there is no guarantee that these will be a success. Other mediators have tried in the past, such as the US, but to no avail. If a compromise is to be reached, the hyper-nationalist and existential narrative being driven by both states needs to be dropped. A level of trust needs to be built.
Ethiopia should make the first move to establish this trust. Transparency is the key, and currently it is only making things worse by enforcing a no-fly zone above the dam, which simply serves to reinforce secrecy. As a show of good faith, an opening up of the dam to inspection by external mediators would go a long way. If Egypt is to drop its view of the dam as an existential threat, it needs concrete evidence that it isn’t one.
Secondly, there needs to be a focus on securing a safety net for Egypt should a drought occur. To do so, outside actors such as the EU, US and UN should consider aiding Egypt in reforming its agricultural sector to contain more efficient irrigation systems, and promote a movement away from the farming of thirsty crops. Furthermore, guarantees of financial support should a drought occur could help mitigate Egypt’s fears, and encourage an easing of its hostility.
Finally, it was a mistake for US to withdraw Ethiopia’s aid package, and this should be restored at once. Pushing Ethiopia into a corner will not force it into submission. Rather, it will provide an opportunity for China to continue its investment in the country, whilst souring relations with the West. If the US wants any meaningful role in the negotiations, it needs to use its strong ties with Egypt as leverage, and must not antagonise the Ethiopians.
Ultimately, the upcoming months are crucial for the future of the Nile conflict. As the dam continues to be filled, so does Egypt’s insecurity continue to rise. Now is the time that action is needed the most. Egypt’s heart is still pumping for the time being, but Ethiopia needs to ensure that it continues to do so. If it does not, the consequences could be devastating.
Banner image courtesy of NASA, © 2020, some rights reserved.
