Why the Growing Influences of BRICS on the World Stage Should Be a Concern

Oct 30

Oct 30 Why the Growing Influences of BRICS on the World Stage Should Be a Concern

BRICS, the group of major emerging economies made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has, for Russian President Vladimir Putin, been a long time in the making. The bloc represents the fruits of decades worth of calculated and purpose-led foreign policy from the Kremlin. BRICS’s expansion may provide Russia the leverage needed to elevate it to a global superpower in an emerging multipolar world order.

Following the fall of the Soviet Union, Russia found itself politically and economically weakened and not well respected by the international community. Between 1990 and 1998, the Russian economy contracted by almost half, with its real GDP per capita falling by 42%. Some commentators have described this period as more damaging than the Great Depression of 1930s America. In this context, the West, without consulting Russia, determined the division of the former Soviet state, Yugoslavia. To Russia’s annoyance, some of the resulting states aligned themselves with the West. Hungary, the Czech Republic and Poland all joined NATO in 1999, reducing Russia’s sphere of influence.

Vladimir Putin has dedicated his presidency to the reestablishment of Russia as a global power. Early on in his presidency, Putin engaged with Western counties, cooperation with which offered Russia an economic lifeline. Yet, as Russia’s GDP grew, so did Putin’s foreign policy ambitions. This more aggressive stance began in 2007 at the Munich International Security Conference in which Putin stated that ‘Russia is a country with a history that spans more than a thousand years and had practically always used that privilege to carry out an independent foreign policy. We are not going to change this tradition today’. He carried on to say that Russia ‘would like to interact with responsible and independent partners with whom we could work together in constructing a fair and democratic world order, which would ensure security and prosperity not only for a select few but for all’. A clear counter-hegemonic order sentiment can be identified here. History reflects that during this time, Russia forged closer ties with southern countries such as China, India, Iran and North Korea.

Putin has focused his foreign policy efforts towards transnational organisations and away from Western influence by founding the Eastern Economic Forum, extending the Eurasian Economic Union, introducing the ‘Greater Eurasia’ project, actively involving Russia in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and G-20, and being a founding member of the BRICS bloc.

This last achievement has resulted in an extremely influential international body.

The acronym ‘BRICS’ refers to the current member states: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, South Africa being the last to join. Although it is not a formal multilateral organization, this group of states has been lauded as a modern model of international relations, overriding the outdated North-South, East-West binaries and becoming one of the most powerful economic organisations in the world. Unlike, its counterparts (G-7 or G-8), BRICS has no integration from a Western nation. The bloc offers Russia an ideal environment in which to further Putin’s foreign policy objectives.

In the latest BRICS summit, Putin allied himself with the other member states by expressing the desire to develop “multifaceted ties” and have Russia become be a reliable source for food and fuel. In the same address, Putin also took the opportunity to attempt to justify Russian involvement in Ukraine, reiterating how the invasion was a response to America’s hostile actions. Putin clearly sees the bloc as a means by which to exert soft power over member states.

This effect can already be observed in South Africa. In the lead up to the 15th BRICS summit hosted by South Africa focusing on developing ties with Africa for ‘mutually accelerated growth’, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin due to war crimes committed in Ukraine. As such, South Africa was obliged to arrest the Russian President the moment he stepped foot in the country. In a diplomatic move that clearly signalled an allyship with Russia, Pretoria announced that dignitaries attending the summit would receive diplomatic immunity. China and India have also refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and both countries have increased their exports of oil and gas to Russia since the war began.

And Russian soft power is set to grow.

Earlier this year, the BRICS announced an unprecedented expansion of the bloc, admitting six new members: Argentina, Iran, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Egypt and Ethiopia. Twenty-two other members have also applied. These six countries are the first members to join the group since 2010 when South Africa joined a year after the bloc was formed. Xi Jinping called the expansion ‘historic’, while Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi calling the expansion a ‘strategic victory for Iran’s foreign policy'. More recently, Putin called the expansion a profound manifestation of an emerging multipolar world. The expansion may have critical geostrategic and geopolitical implications for global politics, especially as the incoming members are concentrated in the Middle-East. China may already be aligning itself with Middle-Eastern countries by mediating peace talks between Saudi Arabia and Iran in preparation for the expansion. Chinese silence on the Israel-Palestine conflict further suggests a strategic positioning from Beijing.

From publications from the Kremlin, it is clear that the bloc has profound and significant goals for itself. Russia’s ‘Concept of the Russian Federation’s Participation in BRICS’ outlines its goals of restructuring international financial institutions like the IMF or the World Bank. The bloc has already created an international financial institution called the New Development Bank (NDB). In a speech made to the latest BRICS Summit, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres showed support for proposed changes to the international financial system, stating ‘redesigning today’s outdated, dysfunctional and unfair global financial architecture is necessary, but it won’t happen overnight…. Yet, we can and must make practical action now’.

The economic standing of the bloc cannot be overstated, as BRICS rivals the G7 in terms of percentage of global GDP. Further, the planned expansion will have Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest oil producing nation, joining the bloc. This move could have detrimental implications for the dollar in global trade.

The growing influence of the BRICS signifies Russia’s increasing influence in the Global South. Already, we have seen nations siding with Russia as they band-wagon for power and status in the international community. Yet, with Russia’s increasingly aggressive near abroad policy, Putin’s positioning of Russia as a leader of the developing world ought to be met with sincere apprehension. Commentators of the BRICS bloc continue to devalue the community by stressing hurdles to their growth such as China’s current economic troubles, Ethiopia’s regional issues with conflicts in the Tigray region, Iran’s internal turmoil, or even the ensuing ‘alphabetical soup’ following the expansion. Commentators ought to be reminded that from the 1st January 2024, BRICS will represent 36% of global GDP and 42% of the world’s population. The move towards a multipolar world order, in which Russia and China share political and economic hegemony, is well on its way. With it, these two illiberal autocracies will hold an enormous amount of soft power in the Global South.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.