A Polyglot of Peril: The Recent North Korean Missile Launch
On March 9, 2020. the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) launched three missiles into the Sea of Japan, also known as the East Sea. The missiles were projected from the South Hamgyong province and were deemed a “firepower strike drill” by Kim Jong Un. This week’s launch follows a missile test from last Monday: these recent examples are some of many tests conducted by North Korea during the two months of a détente between the DPRK and global community.
Kim Jong Un has asserted that the missile launch was a response to international backlash by five European states condemning Un’s 13 missile launches since May of 2019. This solely European response highlights the major split within the United Nations over whether to condemn North Korea’s nuclear activity.
Since the 2018 U.S.-DPRK Singapore Summit; where Kim Jong Un pledged to work towards denuclearization of the peninsula, tensions between the United States and North Korea have resumed. President Trump’s last attempt to abridge the nuclear question with North Korea in 2019 at the Hanoi Summit ended without any agreement signed.
The United States historically has either gone on its own, or used the UN as a tool, for dealing with North Korea. During the Clinton administration, the bilateral Agreed Framework incentivized North Korea to freeze its uranium enrichment and nuclear facilities in exchange for U.S. oil shipments and help creating light water reactors. Conversely, the Bush administration’s Six Party Talks went through the International Atomic Energy Agency to coerce North Korea into giving up its nuclear arsenal.
Other members of the UN Security Council (namely China and Russia) have supported the easing of sanctions on the DPRK to encourage the resumption of denuclearizing talks between the United States and the DPRK. Without UN Security Council backing, the five European nation’s (Belgium, Estonia, France, Germany and the United Kingdom) condemnation lacks support from the major powers; and this has given Un the ability to carry out his recent strike without significant repercussions.
Furthermore, the lack of response has consequences for the United States and South Korea. Since the 2018 summit; President Trump has continually asserted that none of the past 13 launches conducted by North Korea are a threat to the U.S. homeland. President Trump’s policy glosses over the 28,000 U.S. troops in South Korea; which is within the trajectory DPKR missiles are capable of. In fact, following the March 3 missile test, Trump said: “No, I have no reaction”, when prodded about the threat to U.S. troops in South Korea by reporters.
President Trump’s recent policy switch is reinforced by America’s shifting attitude for its domestic affairs. In addition to Trump’s overconfidence in the U.S. security protecting from North Korea’s missile launches, the presence of Coronavirus in the U.S. has distracted Trump’s attention away from international events. At the time of the missile launch, the U.S. was reporting over 1,000 cases of infection; the day after the launch, DOW Jones, a marker for the success of the top 30 U.S. companies on the stock market, dropped 2,013 points. Moreover, American pressure on the president continues to mount because Trump has yet to submit a Corona policy.
Consequently, Trump will have to juggle focusing on domestic affairs with reacting to Un’s missile launch. In contrast to Trump’s domestic upheaval, the DPRK has reported zero cases of Corona, and this missile launch shows Un’s foreign policy has not been sidelined to instead focus on controlling the virus’ spread. Trump’s dismissive policy combined with his preoccupation with the Coronavirus pandemic presents a dangerous scenario in which North Korea can continue to develop their ballistic missile program without significant, if any, repercussions from its greatest adversary.
Besides the U.S., the launch also endangers South Korean-DPRK relations. This week’s missile launch was a shock to the majority of South Koreans in consideration of the highly publicized peacebuilding initiatives undertaken by Kim Jong Un toward President Moon Jae-In the week prior. For example, on the Wednesday before the strike, Kim Jong Un presented President Moon Jae-In with a letter wishing South Korean’s good health during the Coronavirus outbreak.
Despite these well wishes, Un’s continuation of the North Korean contested nuclear program and its recent missile launches have destroyed efforts for South and North Korean economic cooperation via the Kaesong Industrial complex, a symbol of inter-Korea economic cooperation in the 90’s. The Kaesong Industrial Complex was a mutually beneficial economic project where North Korean laborers were paid to work for South Korean companies. In fact, the majority of the population supports the reopening; but the recent missile launch has caused the surge in nationalist sentiment by the government who has since called off the project. Furthermore, the distance of the launch sent an ominous message to South Koreans. The three missiles launched traveled 200 km; the distance from Pyongyang to Seoul is only 195 km. Thus, the distance itself is symbolic that North Korea has the capability to not only decimate South Korea’s capital, but also its surrounding area.
The March 10 missile test has demonstrated the DPRK’s resolve to continue developing its military might and nuclear program following the failed 2018 summit. The international response to the launch has been mixed, and it is debatable whether the DPRK has received its intended reaction from each of its main audiences.
On an international level, the DPRK has succeeded in splitting the UN Security Council and brought China and Russia closer to its side. Bilaterally, the launch received a subpar U.S. reaction from President Trump. On one hand, this is good because it will allow the DPRK to continue testing its missiles without consequence. On the other hand, the DPRK will not be able to bring the U.S. closer to the negotiating table for reduced sanctions if the U.S. is not reacting to the launches.
Finally, North Korea has succeeded to further distancing itself from South Korea. It has also reminded President Moon Jae-In of Un’s unpredictability via his peace offering prior to the launch; but also, of Un’s predictability via the distance of the missile being the right amount to decimate Seoul’s population. Overall, the mixed reactions by the U.N., U.S., and South Korea, represent present divisions in how to deal with North Korean missile testing. Moving into the future, the missile launches are likely to continue until a universal policy of condemnation or incentivization is implemented that will heighten the risk for North Korea’s offensive posture.
