Afghanistan: One Nation-Two Presidents
Although Afghanistan held presidential elections early last September, the results were not revealed until last month when Ashraf Ghani was declared the winner with 50.62% of the popular vote. Ghani’s
rival, Abdullah Abdullah, refused to concede defeat, claiming that Ghani won the election through fraud and asserting his claim to the position. US politicians worked to prevent a “double swearing-in ceremony” from taking
place, the prospect of competing presidents having the potential to undermine future peace-talks with the Taliban, but American efforts accomplished very little.
On March 9, President Ghani’s inauguration took place at the Presidential Palace in Kabul. Minutes later Abdullah Abdullah took the oath of office just metres away. Each half of the population now
had its own president. This dual-presidency conundrum could not come at a worse time for the United States. The US had just brokered a peace deal with the Taliban on February 29, which outlined the US plan to
withdraw all American troops from Afghanistan if the Taliban would agree to not use Afghan soil to plan future attacks on the US or its allies. However, the political uncertainty surrounding this dual inauguration threatens the already unstable peace. First, the US-brokered deal outlined that Afghanistan would hold internal governmental talks on the Tuesday after the inaugurations were scheduled. However, as there is now much confusion within the government as to who is actually president, no such talks have been scheduled. Similarly, the peace deal outlined that that the Afghan government would release thousands of Taliban prisoners ahead of these alleged talks, but now President Ghani claims that he will not comply with this condition.
According to the New York Times, this is the third time the United States has had to mediate a change of regime in Afghanistan since the US invasion in 2001. Mr. Abdullah has been at the centre of all three of these elections. While Abdullah was appointed as the chief executive of the coalition government negotiated by the US in 2014, this is the third time that Abdullah has disputed the validity of the electoral process in the country. In the height of this uncertainty, there was also an attack on President Ghani’s inauguration ceremony. During Ghani’s speech, a rocket was launched toward the event. Although none of the inaugural attendees were killed, one police officer was wounded. The attack affirms just how much of a threat this political uncertainty is to the prospect of peace in Afghanistan.
While special US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad tried to work out some sort of power-sharing agreement between these two rivals, many were concerned about what a dual administration would mean for Afghanistan. Former UN
Representative Kai Eide tweeted, “Terribly sad and dangerous. Two parallel ceremonies. This simply cannot continue. Strong unity is required, not destructive rivalries.” Although Ghani is technically recognized as the
official President of Afghanistan, unity seems a distant illusion-- Abdullah still claims to have won the election-- so either a power-sharing agreement needs to be installed or one of the leaders needs to cede. On March
23, US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo suspended a crucial $1 billion aid package to Afghanistan in the hope that this would push the leaders to reach some sort of agreement. Pompeo said, “The United States is disappointed in them [Ghani and Abdullah] and what their conduct means for Afghanistan and our shared interests. Their failure has harmed US-Afghan relations and, sadly, dishonours those Afghan, Americans and coalition partners who have sacrificed their lives and treasure in the struggle to build a new future for this country.” Pompeo claims that the US will only reinstate the aid package if “Afghan leaders choose to form an inclusive government that can provide security and participate in the peace process.” Given the uncertain political and economic times we face over the next year, hopefully Afghanistan’s leaders can resolve this dilemma before the lack of a coherent government begins to take a toll on its people. Although both leaders claim to be president, there cannot be two conflicting Afghan premiers at such a crucial time. It would serve both sides well to come to some sort of understanding before the damage is irreversible.
