Are Nationalism and Illiberalism the Future of Europe? Examining Poland’s 2023 Election
Polish nationalist leader Jaroslaw Kaczynski left no ambiguity about his goals for his homeland. ‘We want independent Poland, a Poland rooted in tradition, we want Poland which is committed to the faith of its ancestors, committed to Christian tradition,’ said Kaczyński, who has governed the country for eight years under the conservative and nationalist ‘Prawo i Sprawiedliwość’ (PiS) Party. PiS, or the Law and Justice Party, has ruled the country since 2015.
However, on 15 October 2023, a record 74.4 percent of Poles voted Kaczynski and the PiS out of power. The historically high turnout demonstrated that Polish people understood the importance of this vote in Poland’s future in the European Union and beyond. Unexpectedly, the pluralist democratic coalition of three political parties triumphed after a gruelling campaign against Kaczynski’s PiS party. Together, the liberal Civic Coalition, the centre-right Third Way, and The Left – earned a total of 248 parliamentary seats compared to PiS’ 194. Within the next few months, the opposition will attempt to form a new coalition government, which will bring to an end the eight-year rule of Kaczynski and the PiS. After its success, Donald Tusk, ruler of the Civic Coalition, pledged to pursue more tolerant policies. ‘Poland won, democracy won, we drove them out of power (...) it's the end of this bad period, it's the end of PiS's rule,’ he said. 'Change for the better is inevitable.’
After the far right entered parliament for the first time in 2015, the party imposed media restrictions, a near-total ban of abortion, and stoked xenophobia over concerns about Muslim immigrants. Over time, the PiS has adopted an increasingly illiberal, populist, nationalist, and Eurosceptic stance. The PiS has targeted independent media, interfered with the electoral process through wide-reaching propaganda, and reduced rights for minorities. Voters have grown tired of the ruling party after eight years of divisive policies that led to frequent civil protests and bitter divisions within communities and families. Parallels between the Communist era and the current populist government strike fear into some Poles. ‘I have déjà vu,’ Dariusz Stola, the 50-year-old director of Warsaw’s Jewish History Museum and historian specialising in the communist era, told the Associated Press in an interview from his home in Warsaw. ‘I recognize the patterns which I remember from communist Poland.’ Stola and others cite the ‘systematic lies’ that PiS has spread since its entry into power in 2015 and watch with fear as Poland once again moves towards a ‘semi-authoritarian state.’ Even the European Union has accused the Polish government of undermining the rule of law and the erosion of European democratic norms. Experts worried that if PiS remained in power, it could have accelerated its takeover of universities, courts, media, and democratic institutions.
The new ruling coalition hopes for progress in media liberalisation, moderate abortion allowances, and restoration of international alliances. They also seek to unfreeze the billions of euros in EU funding frozen after PiS’ attacks on the Polish justice system and violations of the rule of law. In the few weeks after the election, Tusk has visited Brussels to attempt to repair the Poland-EU relationship, and the new parliament is already discussing reversing PiS’ ban on in vitro fertilisation.
So, what happens next? Polish President Andrezj Duda will likely allow the PiS government, and its Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki, to try to form a new government, as they continue to hold the majority in Parliament. However, it is likely that they will fall short of a majority, which opens the door for Tusk and his coalition to form their government. Although the three parties in the democratic coalition differ, they are strongly bonded by their concern over the democratic erosion under PiS. Thus, policies concerning social welfare, abortion, and immigration are expected to grow more progressive. Tusk is also strongly pro-EU and, in collaboration with the bloc, has promised to reverse many of PiS’ conservative policies. This process may not be easy, as Tusk will still have to face resistance from the right-wing that still exists within the Polish government, including the president. Under its new government, Poland is also likely to continue its leading role within NATO in its fight against Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Although conflicts over grain imports soured the relationship between Prime Minister Morawiecki and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in September, Tusk is expected to rebound Poland’s support for Ukraine and navigate the current protectionist measures on grain imports.
Poland’s election was among the most important in the EU this year, and its results were anxiously awaited across the continent. Brussels was afraid that without this change, Poland could take a path towards authoritarianism that could be difficult to reverse. Another term for PiS could be detrimental to the stability of the EU, where other member states are facing similar democratic erosion, like that in Hungary under Prime Minister Viktor Orbán. The results of this election open the door for Poland to continue contributing to European politics in a positive and constructive way. It shows that democracy can be resilient, and gives hope to those sceptical about the future of the political environment in countries like Italy and Hungary. Poland's turn away from populism and illiberalism represents an important shift in the country, and demonstrates that nationalist tendencies are not a one-way street.
Image courtesy of Silar via Wikimedia, ©2023. Some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
