Azerbaijan’s Recent Advances In the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Oct 14

Oct 14 Azerbaijan’s Recent Advances In the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict

Engulfed in violence and war since the early 1990s, Nagorno-Karabakh has been a hot spot of debate within the South Caucasus region. A region caught between the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan, countries split between Eastern Europe and Western Asia, control of Nagorno-Karabakh has been challenged since the fall of the Soviet Union. Initially a part of Azerbaijan, Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenian citizens began campaigning to separate from Azerbaijan and unify with Armenia in 1987. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 marked a major turning point for the region, as disputes over its control remained unresolved, sparking the beginning of a two-year war between Armenia and Azerbaijan. During the war, an estimated one million people fled Nagorno-Karabakh, threatened by violence on both sides. In 1994, Armenia emerged victorious, gaining control of Nagorno-Karabakh and seven districts surrounding it, which had been part of Azerbaijan. Although Nagorno-Karabakh was free of a major war from 1994 to 2020, acts of violence continued, including the use of attack drones and heavy weaponry, as well as activity by special operations forces. A four-day period of fighting also occurred in April of 2016, resulting in hundreds of deaths on both sides.

Tensions in Nagorno-Karabakh reached a tipping point in July of 2020, with the beginning of a full-on war in which 7,000 military personnel and 170 civilians were killed. Azerbaijani control of Nagorno-Karabakh and surrounding territories was restored. This second Nagorno-Karabakh war officially ended on November 10 of 2020 due to the intervention of Russian forces, who mediated a ceasefire declaration. Despite the ceasefire, the violence that has haunted Nagorno-Karabakh for over three decades did not stop; over 1,200 people have been killed since the end of the war. In September 2022 alone, around 805 people were killed and wounded in acts of violence due to unresolved Armenian-Azerbaijani tension.

In early September of this year, Nagorno-Karabakh entered a state of disorder as the region was invaded by Azerbaijani forces following a months long Azerbaijani blockade of the Lachin corridor, a passage of land that separates Nagorno-Karabakh from Armenia. The invasion caused an intense upheaval for Armenians, who fled the area out of fear. Goris, a town just across the border in Armenia, has been turned into a refugee camp for those fleeing Nagorno-Karabakh. Just days after the initial invasion, Nagorno-Karabakh’s government declared that this ‘self-republic’ would cease to exist by January, handing over their governing power to Azerbaijan. This Azerbaijani power play was not altogether unexpected, as Azerbaijan had been seeking to solidify its military gains following a strengthening of their economy from exports of oil and natural gas.

The Azerbaijani takeover means nothing good for the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh. It has demanded that ethnic Armenians either ‘submit to Azerbaijani government or leave’, leaving Armenians to feel as though Azerbaijan is attempting a form of ethnic cleansing. Azerbaijani control has left the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh in fear, as some believe promises of guaranteed rights for Armenians to be empty. Armenian distaste for Azerbaijani forces has increased heavily from invasion which Azerbaijani’s Defense Ministry has justified with claims that it was engaging in ‘local anti-terrorist’ operations, targeting Armenian firing points and military facilities. The world is questioning Azerbaijani’s treatment of Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh, however; in late September, dozens of people lined up at a fuel depot in Nagorno-Karabakh, refueling their vehicles before evacuating, were killed by a blast, just one of many violent actions of the Azerbaijani forces in the past month.

The takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh is expected to shift the entire power dynamic in the South Caucasus region, beyond the borders of Armenia and Azerbaijan. The South Caucasus have been a crossroad of geopolitical interests for many countries over recent years, including Russia, Turkey, and Western nations; the Azerbaijani expansion is bound to spark new tensions. Armenia’s surrender of Nagorno-Karabakh threatens Russian influence in South Caucasus, as Russia no longer holds a governing hand in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict as it once did, losing pivotal power within the region. Azerbaijani control of Nagorno-Karabakh also jeopardizes the stability of Armenia, as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has been seeking closer ties with the West despite a military alliance with Russia, placing Armenia into a more vulnerable state.

The return of Azerbaijani control in Nagorno-Karabakh has been catastrophic to the unity of Armenia, as riots and protests have occurred within the country. Many Armenians, enraged by the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh, have gathered in the central square of Yerevan, Armenia’s capital, denouncing Pashinyan and his failure to intervene, even calling for his arrest. The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, seemingly terminated by Armenia’s surrender, has resulted in increased tension and unrest within Armenia, and has invited new power plays among the countries of the South Caucasus region.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.