Decline of Global Trust in the United Nations

Since the UN General Assembly's proposal to partition Palestine in 1947, the UN has juggled competing interests during Middle Eastern crises. Typically, the United States vetoes Security Council criticism of Israel, while Arab states and developing countries support Palestinians. This pattern persisted after §Hamas's attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, with the US blocking a call for a ceasefire in Gaza at the Security Council although a General Assembly resolution demanding a humanitarian truce passed by a significant margin in late October.

Diplomats in New York and Geneva note a distinct air around this crisis, fearing that the crisis’s implications may extend to the UN's reputation itself. This concern stems from Hamas's violence, the growing casualties in Gaza due to Israeli attacks, and potential regional conflict risks. Overall, the UN's credibility has been waning, marked by its ineffectiveness in addressing various crises, including conflicts in Sudan, Nagorno-Karabakh, and the Niger coup. The Russia-West tension over Ukraine has also been cited as a disruptive factor in broader UN discussions.

UN Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted the threat of a "great fracture" in global governance during the General Assembly in September. The Israel-Hamas conflict could be the final blow to the UN's crisis response reputation. A critical moment of self-reflection for the UN is approaching as questions arise over its role in maintaining peace and security as consensus among major powers diminishes. The post-Cold War era saw the UN routinely called upon to address conflicts, but now it seems to be confronting its limits in the face of shifting geopolitical realities.

The UN must recalibrate its goals to suit the present times, focusing on fewer security priorities and delegating crisis management where possible. It remains a unique forum for global coordination, even amid diplomatic breakdowns, providing a venue for rivals to engage and cooperate. Preserving its core functions is crucial, despite ongoing conflicts. 

The UN's credibility crisis has grown since the Ukraine conflict escalated. Initial concerns about great powers stalling the UN's function were briefly allayed by continued cooperation on non-Ukraine issues. However, as Russia increasingly obstructs UN actions, this cooperation has weakened, threatening the institution's ability to foster collective action.

The conflict in the Middle East has intensified aggressive tactics in UN diplomacy. Historically, Russia and China have refrained from openly criticising the U.S. at the UN over the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Recently, Russia has been vocal against the U.S., especially after a U.S. veto on a resolution for Gaza aid accusing the U.S. of hypocrisy and suggesting ulterior motives tied to arms sales. This has caused friction among Security Council members and raised suspicions among Arab nations of Russia's intentions.

The U.S.'s staunch support for Israel has further strained diplomatic relations, notably in the General Assembly where support for Ukraine has fragmented over the Gaza issue. A resolution for a ceasefire in Gaza saw divided votes, with the U.S. opposing due to the resolution’s failure to condemn Hamas, leading to threats of retaliation in future UN decisions. This division may undermine U.S. efforts to improve relations with developing nations at the UN, despite proposed reforms and financial support promises. 

UN Secretary-General Guterres and the institution's conflict-management abilities are under pressure with no united Security Council support. The UN's credibility is challenged, with governments and factions disregarding UN mediators or peacekeepers. Funding shortfalls for humanitarian work have become acute as Western donors cut aid to allocate resources to Ukraine.

Guterres himself faced criticism after comments on the Israel-Hamas conflict, though he clarified his stance and received backing from other nations. However, this incident highlighted the political fragility of UN operations. The continuation of the Israel-Hamas war may either necessitate an expanded UN role or, if regionalized, risk UN missions in the Middle East. 

The UN's future looks complex, with diplomatic unity and operational capacity suffering amid growing global divides. Despite this, the UN has maintained a level of function, passing numerous resolutions in 2023. It may not return to its past role as a universal crisis mediator, but it can still contribute, focusing on emerging security threats and supporting regional conflict management, as seen in Haiti's recent mission led by Kenya.

If the UN adapts, it can maintain relevance in global security, finding a new balance in the Security Council and a significant role in international conflict management outside of leading major crisis resolutions. The UN can bolster conflict prevention and basic services, even as it navigates geopolitical tensions. Despite the challenges, the UN's updated diplomatic and security roles could allow it to regain stability in the face of new global dynamics.

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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.