Sweden’s Big Break – Turkey Makes Moves to Approve Sweden’s Bid to Join NATO

The North Atlantic Treaty Organisation (NATO), a major military alliance between thirty-one European and North American countries, has received a growing amount of attention in the past year with bids by Sweden and Finland to join the alliance. Before its bid to join, Sweden maintained long-standing neutrality outside of NATO, finding itself initially deterred from joining NATO because of suspicions of the U.S.'s security agenda coming from Sweden’s left political party. However, both Sweden and Finland found themselves eagerly breaking military non-alignment in May 2022 with bids to join NATO, desperate for additional security and protection following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Although they applied to join NATO at the same time, the accession timelines for the two countries have differed. Finland became a member of NATO in April 2023, but despite Sweden’s eagerness to join, its acceptance to NATO was hindered by Hungary and Turkey’s delayed approval, as each member of NATO must endorse bids for an official acceptance. Over a year after its application, Sweden has finally received approval from Turkey following major negotiations between Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Sweden’s Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson. So, what will Sweden’s accession to NATO bring for Sweden and the rest of the world, and why was Turkey against Sweden’s bid in the first place? 

One of Turkey’s major hesitations on ratifying Sweden’s bid to join NATO was Sweden’s support of Kurdish militant groups. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), an armed radical group designated a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the EU, and the US, has instigated rebellions and uprisings for years against Turkey’s government, forcing Turkey to feel that its national security is threatened by Sweden’s lack of retaliation against these groups. Turkish officials declared that Sweden was being too soft on these groups, demanding that Sweden’s government clamp down on these terrorist organisations and take more designated steps in handling the groups, especially the PKK in Stockholm. Turkish officials also negotiated with Sweden to gain assurance of support for Turkey’s bid to join the EU, as well as boosted economic cooperation between the two countries. In addition to increased economic cooperation, Sweden negotiated an agreement with the United States to sell 40 new F-16 fighter jets and modernization kits to Turkey, a major point of persuasion for Turkey’s support of Sweden. A series of Quran-burning protests in Sweden also added to Turkey’s disapproving stance on Sweden joining NATO. However, upon negotiating this reformed legislation, President Erdogan lifted his opposition to Sweden joining NATO in early July, promising to pass along the bill of approval to be received by Turkish parliament. Despite President Erdogan’s promise to help hasten the process of approval within Turkish parliament three months ago, Sweden’s NATO membership has yet to be made official. 

Sweden’s NATO membership brings about many advantages for both NATO and Sweden, as Sweden’s membership expands NATO’s global power and solidifies NATO’s control of the Baltic Sea. Sweden’s newfound membership allows it to avoid being the only country bordering the Baltic Sea that is not a member of NATO apart from Russia. Sweden also finds itself with the benefit of security guarantees from nuclear states, as under NATO’s Article 5 an attack on any single member of the alliance is an attack on all. This security guarantee has become a necessity for Sweden, as Russia has publicly threatened both Sweden and Finland prior to their membership of NATO. Upon initial rumour of these countries wanting to join NATO, Russia’s foreign ministry warned that both Sweden and Finland would face consequences for joining NATO, as the increased control of NATO threatens Russia’s power, particularly as it is the only remaining country on the Baltic Sea without the backing of NATO.  Despite the support from two thirds of the Swedish population in this endeavour, there have been concerns about the potential consequences of Sweden’s bid to join NATO. Joining NATO, although strengthening Sweden with the support of new alliances, also places Sweden in a precarious position. Not only is Sweden now a direct target of Russia’s military power, but Sweden will also lose its leading role in global nuclear disarmament efforts. Sweden’s identity in these disarmament efforts was defined by a stance of neutrality.  Now, this role is broken, as Sweden’s NATO membership means breaking its prior non-military alignment. These increased tensions with Russia potentially introduce the problem of an arms race, as Russia now feels more threatened not only by NATO’s increased power but also by Finland, who is now a member of NATO and shares an 830-mile border with Russia. There is definitely a newfound presence of collective fear towards the nuclear threat Russia now poses for NATO as a whole, alongside its individual threats towards Sweden and Finland. 

Following NATO’s Madrid Summit in July 2022, Sweden became an official NATO Invitee, enabling Sweden to attend meetings and coordinate activities with other allies within NATO. Despite these new privileges, Sweden’s participation and full membership of the Alliance was still hindered by Turkey and Hungary’s lack of support. However, in the past couple of months, negotiations between Sweden and Turkey have persuaded Turkey to approve Sweden’s bid, placing pressure on Turkish parliament, which is the only remaining roadblock between Sweden and official NATO membership. 

Image courtesy of Sssolbergj via Wikimedia, ©2022. Some rights reserved.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.