Democratic Backsliding in Poland and Hungary: Can the EU Fight Back?

European Union leaders have finally agreed on a €1.8 trillion budget that would set aside funds for a coronavirus recovery fund. Hungary and Poland have blocked the budget from being finalized as they refuse to accept the rule-of-law mechanism that links disbursement of funds to democratic standards. Because the EU could block funds and impose sanctions on governments who do not respect rule-of-law standards, Hungary and Poland feel personally targeted by the agreement. Both countries are under EU investigation for “backsliding on democratic standards” as they tighten control on the judiciary, media, and other liberal institutions. Polish prime minister Morawiecki claims that it is dangerous to tie monetary funds to democratic ideologies and warns that this decision could lead of the breakup of the union. Poland and Hungary both hold their position that the rule-of-law condition is based upon “arbitrary” terms and definitions that can be used to define economic sanctions against member countries. 

Poland and Hungary are fairly similar, with both countries emerging from communist dictatorships in the 1990s and both recently electing right-wing nationalist governments. The two countries are both heavily dependent on EU cash, with Poland being the largest recipient of funds. Further, Poland and Hungary are the only members of the EU to be investigated for violating EU values of rule-of-law and democracy. Both countries argue that they are acting in the best interest of the whole Union itself, claiming that by threatening a veto they are preventing similar mechanisms from being used against other members. This decision by Hungary and Poland has the potential to undo months of negotiations that resulted in an announcement in July that the EU members were unified in the endeavor to raise billions of euros to help each other through the pandemic-induced recession. This delay in budget agreements could further delay the disbursement of funds that are greatly needed by European countries hard hit by Covid-19. 

The budget block by Hungary and Poland is only one example of a pattern of democratic backsliding in the region. Freedom House, a US-based NGO, recently announced that Poland did not meet the criteria to be considered a “consolidated democracy”, and has fallen to the status of a “semi-consolidated democracy”. Poland is the second EU member country to lose its democratic status, following Hungary who lost its democracy status five years ago and now is now no longer classified as a democracy at all. Poland’s democratic backsliding was facilitated in 2015 when the current ruling Law and Justice Party (PiS) was elected. Most notably, the PiS party has undertaken a contested overhaul of its judiciary. Freedom House authors warn that if Poland continues this undemocratic pattern, “it will join hybrid regimes and autocracies that routinely mete out politicized justice.” It is worth noting that Poland has the most favorable views of Donald Trump of any European state. 

In February of this year, Poland’s ruling party signed a new law that allowed punishment of any member of the judiciary that criticized the government. Małgorzata Gersdorf, former First President of the Supreme Court of Poland, observed that the executive power in Poland is now placed above the judiciary, violating the rule-of-law principles that the Polish constitution is based upon. The persistence of LGBT-free zones and arrests of LGBT activists and protestors, as well as new abortion restrictions, under the ruling PiS party only add to the pattern of autocratic government control in Poland. Polish politicians claim that the rule-of-law mechanism in the EU budget is only a pretext to the forced adoption of liberal policies, such as same-sex marriage, in Poland. 

Democracy in Hungary has been jeopardized for years now, as prime minister Victor Orban leads the country deeper into autocracy. The ruling government wasted no time in adopting emergency measures in March, and the prime minister can now effectively rule the country with little constitutional checks over his actions. Media censorship is commonplace, information about coronavirus is tightly controlled. The right-wing alliance of Orban’s Fidesz party and the Christian Democratic People’s Party have continually undermined the rule-of-law by rewriting the constitution and capturing the public and private media, giving the ruling coalition an extreme advantage over the opposition. These recent developments under Orban’s populist leadership has caused Hungary to be classified as the EU’s first “hybrid regime”. 

The inclusion of the rule-of-law mechanism in the EU bill follows the new measures under article 7 of the EU treaties against Poland and Hungary that were in response to the countries’ undermining of their judiciary systems. Article 7 required a unanimous support from all member states, and as Poland and Hungary would protect each other from the bill, the article is ineffective. The Polish and Hungarian governments are largely distrustful of Brussels and use media to undermine EU leaders. Hungary recently released billboards depicting the president of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, with the words “You have the right to know what Brussels is planning”

Hungary and Poland’s unified confirmation on Thursday, November 26 that they would not agree to the rule-of-law mechanism included in the EU’s new budget and COVID relief plan seriously complicates the EU’s goal to reach a deal for seven year Multiannual Financial Framework by the summit on December 10th. Although Poland is the largest recipient of EU cash, it calculates that the country can survive for more than a year without funding, while southern member states may not be able to. Both countries’ governments are acting in complete self-interest, undermining the ideals and principles of the EU. As Poland and Hungary drift away from democracy and toward populism and autocracy, they isolate themselves further from the rest of Europe. 

The European Union finds itself at a tough place. Unanimous support is required for the recovery plana and 2021-2027 budget. With Poland and Hungary backing each other and effectively blackmailing the EU, the unity that seemed so viable in the summer is now crumbling. Angela Merkel has struggled to keep good relations with Hungary and Poland, but now must choose to accept the democratic backsliding in Eastern Europe or face down the autocratic governments, which risks further delaying the seven-year budget plan. A failure to set a budget deal by December will have damaging consequences for the EU, especially those hit hard by Covid-19 who are in need of emergency funding. But not placing sanctions on the two countries and allowing them to violate EU principles gives the green light to other member states to undermine democratic institutions too. While the EU has largely sat back and watched democratic standards slip in Hungary and Poland, now is the time to defend democracy. 

Image courtesy of Kancelaria Premiera via Wikimedia, © 2018 some rights reserved