Europe-America Split Widening: The Munich Security Conference as a Turning Point
The Munich Security Conference represents a turning point in US-European relations during a critical and tense period in geopolitics. This conference was held just before key peace talks about the Russia-Ukraine war, set to take place in Saudi Arabia and to which European officials were not invited. Recent discussions between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to sideline Ukrainian officials. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with US Vice President JD Vance at the conference to ensure that Ukraine would not be excluded from America’s efforts to conclude the conflict. Vance delivered a speech at the conference that highlighted the challenges the relationship between America and Europe may face in the future. Financial, military, and democratic concerns were key topics of this conference, reflecting the uncertain future between Europe and the US.
This conference highlights a shift toward an increasingly multipolar world, where power is distributed among a larger number of actors capable of influencing key global issues, rather than being dominated by a single hegemony in international politics. Trump regards the US’s post-Cold War strategy of liberal internationalism and the US-created international order as an ineffective approach to foreign policy, marking a new and unprecedented era. This perspective is reinforced by the speech delivered by Vance at the conference.
Finances were a critical aspect of this conference; in particular, American officials, including US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, stressed the importance of European nations increasing their own defense spending to deter Russia. This is despite the NATO-mandated minimum of 2% of GDP spent on defense funding being likely to rise to 3%, and Europe has already overtaken the US for aid to Ukraine. Europe has allocated €70 billion in financial and humanitarian aid, while the US has contributed €50 billion. The rifts between America and Europeans are also evident in Trump's plans to bring in a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports from March onwards, which was reflected around the time of this conference. This clearly indicates the disunity and discord between America and Europe, specifically with rifts in economic policy, adding a complex layer to contribute to the financial discussions at the conference.
As mentioned previously, the decision by American officials to exclude Zelensky from peace talks reflects a complete shift in US foreign policy. The post-World War II framework for Europe is no longer the same; while America remains in NATO, Europe can no longer rely on the US for its support. This illustrates a decline in America's soft power, aligning with Trump's statements that suggest the US’s previous approach to foreign policy is not feasible for the future.
During the conference, Vance focused on attacking European politics, where he accused European governments of retreating from their values and ignoring concerns from voters about free speech and migration. Specifically, he focused on European leaders censoring social media, interfering in elections, and violating the rights of Christians. Vance stated that these factors would be the “surefire way to destroy democracy.” European officials responded swiftly to these claims; the German Defense Minister, Boris Pistorius, said Vance’s claims only apply to parts of Europe with authoritarian regimes. In his speech, Vance also cited Romania’s cancellation of its elections in December over alleged Russian meddling and accused the UK of backsliding on religious rights. Most significantly, Vance called out the conference's host country, Germany, creating a consensus among mainstream political parties not to work with the far-right Alternative Germany (AfD). Pistorius, a member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany, defended his choice by saying that democracy must defend itself against extremists.
Germany was undergoing an election process during the Munich Conference, making it a very politically sensitive time. The Munich Conference barred the AfD and the formed left-populists Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW), which Vance cited as “undemocratic” in his speech. Vance accused European leaders of stifling right-wing political views, making a point to meet with the AfD co-leader, Alice Weidel and not with the German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. This decision by Vance was viewed as controversial by other European leaders, as the AfD is known for Nazi-era rhetoric and downplaying of Germany's responsibility for the Holocaust. Vance’s decision not to meet with Scholz could have been motivated by Scholz’s previous comments about how dictated peace between Russia and Ukraine, being pushed by the US and not involving Ukraine, would not be supported by Germany.
Leaders met Vance’s speech with concern about future relations between America and Europe. Zelenskyy called for creating an “armed forces of Europe” in response to Vance’s speech, where many leaders were concerned about how much Europe's security architecture would be changed by America's decreasing aid to European nations. Friedrich Merz, who is set to be Germany's next chancellor, expressed doubts about the US commitment to NATO. He believes that there is a possibility that Trump will no longer uphold NATO's mutual defense commitment, so Europe must ensure they can defend the European continent on their own. This marked a turning point in European defense and the role of Americans.
The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, gave a speech stressing that Europe must change to thrive in this new and constantly evolving global stage. She called to avoid trade wars, and just as Vance did, she said that Europe must be bold and increase defense spending. She stressed the importance of peace in Ukraine, as a failed Ukraine would weaken Europe and the US, while emboldening authoritarian leaders around the world. This view that Zelenskyy is critical for peace talks is one that many European leaders reflect, as they worry that Trump's desire to end the war quickly might lead to a temporary ceasefire that could allow Russia to rebuild its forces. Unfortunately, Trump stated in a Fox News Interview that he believed that Zelenskyy was unnecessary to the peace process.
The Munich Security Conference and Vance’s speech highlight a challenging future for the relationship between the US and Europe. The increase in defense spending required by the US will be closely monitored and may be pressed by the Trump administration to ensure Europe retains some level of financial assistance from the US. Frequent mentions of peace talks concerning the Russia-Ukraine war occurred during the conference. However, the US appears to be sidestepping the conflict, notably by excluding Ukrainian officials from discussions with Russia. Vance’s speech will resonate with European officials and citizens for months and years ahead as we enter an unprecedented era where the US charts a new course in its foreign policy, which will affect all European allies.
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The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
