Exporting the Revolution: Iranian foreign policy objectives and escalating Iranian-US tensions

In the early morning of January 3rd, Iranian general Qasem Soleimani was assassinated by the United States leaving Baghdad International
Airport. This contentious act has caused uproar in Iran and motivated a retaliatory missile strike on US air bases in Iraq, as well as the accidental downing of Ukrainian Airlines flight PS752 outside Tehran. The global community has generally reacted with shock to the developing crisis as Iran and the United States continue to threaten the other with all-out war. This has also sparked new interest and concern over the role Iran plays in the region and has led many to question whether the death of Soleimani was justified in the face of aggressive Iranian intentions, or if it was a reckless act of war. 

Iran has had an arguably heavy hand in Middle Eastern politics since its revolution in 1979. Contrary to popular belief Iran, while led by a strongly religious authority, has never aimed to instate Islamic rule in the region. Its foreign policy has instead been aimed at securing political influence and support in the region as a means of assuring the state’s own security and securing political objectives in the Middle East. A strong example of this has always been Hezbollah, a militia group based in southern Lebanon, founded on Iranian support and at least partially driven in its actions by the Iranian desire to combat Israel.

Iran’s emerging hegemonic status has naturally brought it into conflict with existing regional powers such as Saudi Arabia. The contest between Iran and Saudi Arabia has been described as a regional ‘cold war’ with each side attempting to increase its power and influence over the other. This competition is also fundamentally split along sectarian lines with Iran primarily supporting Shiite groups, and the Saudis backing Sunni-aligned groups. These policies can devolve into proxy wars such as the escalating conflict in Yemen, where Iranian-backed Houthi rebels have been conducting a drawn-out civil war against the Saudi-backed al-Hadi government. 

Another key battleground for the competing powers is Iraq. Since the collapse of the Ba'ath government in the US invasion of 2003 and subsequent failure of the US-led coalition to restore order to the country, paramilitary groups, militias and local warlords have dominated the fragile country. Iran and Saudi Arabia have stepped into this volatile environment, supporting aligned militia groups and once again looking to undermine the influence of the other. It is here that the Quds force and actors like Qasem Soleimani have been active in supporting Iranian-backed militias and conducting their own military
operations for Iran. 

Naturally the encroaching influence and military operations of Iran have brought it into conflict with the United States as well. The US is a strong sponsor of Israel (Iran’s sworn enemy) and is connected politically and economically to the Saudis, placing it firmly in the anti-Iranian camp. The US-Iranian relationship has been icy for many years, but has further deteriorated in recent history. The exit of the US from the Iranian nuclear deal in 2018 has contributed to this
breakdown of relations, with President Donald Trump accusing the Iranians of not complying with the deals and fuelling conflict and terrorism across the Middle East. 

Now the most recent exchange of aggression has further deteriorated their relationship to a point where war, though unlikely, is being increasingly discussed as a possible eventuality. The death of Soleimani has had a profound effect on Iran, being a celebrated general with a large domestic following and personal friend of Ayatollah Khamenei, the country’s Supreme Leader. Trump has justified the assassination by claiming that ‘Soleimani has been perpetrating
acts of terror to destabilize the Middle East for the last 20 years’. In response Iran has conducted a missile attack on US air bases in Irbil and al-Asad and has promised to pursue further revenge. It has also demanded that the US remove its troops from Iraq and any sanctions on Iran. The US response has so far been moderate only committing to more sanction though they have sent more troops into the region and seem intent on combating Iran. Rhetoric on both sides suggests a serious desire to destroy the other and to forgo any dialogue to ease the situation. It should be noted, however, that actions speak louder than words and so far, the conflict has not escalated any further. Ultimately, what will come of this conflict seems unclear. Analysts, politicians and journalists are
split over the likelihood of a war. Only time will tell if the crisis worsens-for now, the world holds its breath.  

Image courtesy of Tasnim News Agency,  © 2017, some rights reserved.