Nagorno-Karabakh: Thawing of a Frozen Conflict
One of the world’s longest standing ‘frozen’ international conflicts has begun to thaw after multiple cease-fires called by the US, France, and Russia have failed to produce permanent peace. Tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region have the potential to escalate into a full-blown war.
The Nagorno Karabakh Republic, or the Republic of Artsakh, is an autonomous region established by the Soviet government in the 1920s that is 95% Armenian, but legally a part of Azerbaijan. The disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region has been a source of conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan since the fall of the Soviet Union. After Armenia and Azerbaijan gained independence from the USSR in 1991, tensions rose and war broke out from 1992 to 1994, leaving 30,000 people dead. Russia brokered a cease-fire between the countries in 1994 and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has handled disputes since. Despite the cease-fire, skirmishes have broken out in the last decade, most notably in 2016 when dozens of troops and civilians were killed in fighting. Since then, frequent cease-fire violations and increased militarization have continued to escalate military tensions between both countries.
Heavy fighting along the border commenced in late September with Armenian authorities claiming that Azerbaijan had launched airstrikes against civilian villages, including its capital Stepanakert. Azerbaijan responded saying it performed a counterattack when Armenian militants attacked Azerbaijani border forces. Military and civilian casualties are continuously mounting, and Azerbaijani missile and drone strikes have demolished many towns, villages, and schools. Many humanitarian organizations have promised aid to the region, but no international aid can reach Nagorno Karabakh without Azerbaijani permission.
On October 10, Russia brokered a cease-fire, which has since been broken many times by both sides. In fact, Russia has been a primary mediating voice in the conflict, chairing the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) Minsk Group and sustaining ties with both Armenia and Azerbaijan, although it is formally only an ally of Armenia. Despite Russia’s ally status with Armenia, Moscow has been selling arms to Baku for years now.
Turkey has actively backed fellow Turkish “brother” and key geo-political partner Azerbaijan. Turkish drones have been seen in use during the fighting that occurred over the weekend of October 18. Turkey, a NATO member, has been cited as saying it will back Azerbaijan both diplomatically and “on the battlefield”. It has been reported that Turkey sent over 1000 Syrian troops to help with training and armaments. Turkey’s foreign minister claims that the world should back Azerbaijan who is on the “right” side and push back against Armenia, the “occupier”.
Analysts suspect Turkey has played such an active role in the conflict due to the large exports of gas it receives from Azerbaijan. Furthermore, Turkish involvement could lead to a greater role for Ankara in the Caucasus. If Turkey is at the forefront of a peace deal between Azerbaijan and Armenia, it could solidify its status as a major player in the region and upset Russia’s dominant role as regional power broker. Armenia’s prime minister Pashinyan has told reporters he views Turkey’s support of Azerbaijan as an “Azeri- Turkish international terrorist attack”, accusing the two nations of repeating the Armenian genocide. While Russia has not made any overt moves to favor one country over the other, an on-going conflict with Turkish involvement could threaten Russian dominance over an area it has always considered within its privileged sphere of interest.
On Sunday October 25th, the United States brokered a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, calling for a cease-fire that would go into effect the next day. On Monday, minutes after the cease-fire officially started, both sides accused each other of violating the temporary peace. The failure of both the US and Russia to halt fighting between the two countries suggest this new conflict will be significantly harder to control than the “four days war” seen in 2016. While Nagorno- Karabakh has not been a foreign policy priority for the US since the early 2000s, increased participation by Turkey and military escalation could lead to war involving multiple world powers. If a peace deal between the two sides cannot be effectively reached, both sides will not likely end their military aggression until the other power is neutralized. Armenia has hinted that it will not stop until Azerbaijan is adequately defeated and forced to leave the region, while Azerbaijan will probably keep fighting until it regains Nagorno- Karabakh and the surrounding Armenian held land. These military goals leave cause for concern, as such victories by any side would result in the capturing of one country’s land by the other and the possibility of ethnic cleansing.
Another humanitarian concern related to the civilians of Nagorno-Karabakh who will - if fighting continues – face displacement and may be forced to flee from their homes. Starting in 1990, 36,000 Armenians were expelled from Azerbaijan and settled in Nagorno Karabakh, only to be displaced a second time during Azerbaijan’s military offenses against the region from 1992-1994. The current conflict in the region has displaced over half of its population and 90%of its women and children. The war in the early 1990s claimed over 30,000 lives, and concerns are mounting that a similar death toll could result from this conflict.
The United States has only just recently become actively involved with the conflict, and so far, has failed to mediate any effective truce between the two fighting nations. France, a co-chair of the OSCE along with Russia and the US, has also attempted, and failed, to produce a lasting cease-fire. French foreign minister Jean- Yves Le Drian has criticized Azerbaijan for fueling the flames and risking a regional war between multiple international powers. The initial indifference of the United States and the inability of any Western power to make any real progress in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict hints at a possible new balance of power in Europe. The Trump Administration's gravitation toward isolationist policy has chipped away at America’s long-held position as the world’s policeman. Europe currently has its hands full with the second wave of Covid-19 and the possibility of a no-deal Brexit. With the US and Europe no longer willing to lead the world, regional powers such as Turkey may be able to fill the vacuum.
The Nagorno- Karabakh conflict has been ‘frozen’ for 30 years, but with renewed participation by Turkey and new stockpiles of weapons supplied by Russia and Israel, fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia could lead to a full-blown war. While the conflict may seem far away and of little relevance to many Americans, Nagorno- Karabakh is an example of how regional conflicts can explode and suck in world powers if left unresolved. The Caucasus is in great need of America’s diplomatic influence before fighting between Armenia and Azerbaijan passes the point of no return.
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