Prisoner to President- Sadyr Japarov Installed as Kyrgyzstan’s Newest Head of State
Following two weeks of violent protests Sadyr Japarov has been named caretaker President of Kyrgyzstan. The Kyrgyz parliament confirmed Mr. Japarov as interim president on October 16th, after he had claimed the position a day prior. He will act as the interim president until the annulled October 4th election is rescheduled.
Anti-government riots stemmed from the parliamentary election on October 4th which was tainted by credible allegations of pro-government parties buying votes. Former President Sooronbay Jeenbekov declared a state of emergency in an attempt to restore order which lead to violent demonstrations. As Mr. Jeenbekov’s government crumbled protestors and opposition parties swelled into the streets, overran government buildings, and freed political prisoners. Sadyr Japarov was one of the politicians freed from a jail in Bishkek while his supporters clashed with the supporters of potential rivals such as Omurbek Babanov. Mr. Jeenbekov’s failure to quell the protests sent government officials into hiding, leaving Bishkek ungoverned. He re-appeared on October 9th and pledged to resign “as soon as the current situation is brought to a legal basis, all government agencies and the government are given authority, and the country is on the right path.”
Kyrgyzstan is Central Asia’s sole democracy, but the nation of 6.5 million people is deeply divided along ethnic and geographic lines. It is the second poorest country in the region, after Tajikistan, with 22% of the population living below the poverty line. The North of the country is widely considered relatively prosperous compared to the more underdeveloped South, thoroughly increasing the chances of political and economic dispute.
Politically motivated, violent protests have deposed of three Kyrgyz presidents since 2005. The most notable movement was the 2005 Tulip Revolution which forced Askar Akayev—Kyrgyzstan’s first president—into exile. The transfer of power from Almazbek Atambayev to Sooronbay Jeenbekov’s following the 2017 election marked the first time that Kyrgyzstan had a peaceful transfer of power.
Sadyr Japarov first entered politics following the Tulip Revolution when he was elected to the Kyrgyz parliament. Yet prior to Mr. Japarov’s most recent rise to power, he had been serving an eleven-year sentence for his alleged role in attempting to kidnap rival politician, Emilbek Kaptagaev. Mr. Japarov was freed when his supports stormed the jail following the October 4th election. He has also been accused of having strong ties to organised crime in the country. Despite Mr. Japarov’s chequered past, he has leveraged his political capital to emerge as Kyrgyzstan’s caretaker president.
Although the Kyrgyz constitution states that a new election must be held within three months and that the caretaker president may not run for president, it appears Mr. Japarov wishes to amend the constitution so as to allow him to run for a full six-year term. This will require parliament amending the constitution before holding the presidential election. Should Mr. Japarov not get his way, Kyrgyzstan could spiral into greater turmoil.
Instability in Kyrgyzstan poses a threat to regional stability in an already unstable region. Both Russia and China have significant political, economic, and security interests in Central Asia, yet neither country has definitively indicated if they will support Mr. Japarov’s bid for a full term as president.
Since August, a number of diplomatic crises have arisen in former Soviet republics, and as a result, Russia has remained largely uninvolved with the power struggle in Kyrgyzstan. By simply calling for a peaceful and legal resolution, it appears Vladimir Putin is betting that the Kyrgyz crisis will resolve itself out without the need for serious Russian intervention. This diplomatic gambit reflects how Moscow is preoccupied with more pressing foreign policy crises in the Caucasus and Belarus.
The Russian-backed ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the war over the Nagorno-Karabakh region failed to hold. And despite having a mutual defence treaty with Armenia, Putin has been reluctant to lend Russian support since deploying Russian resources could potentially drag Russia and Turkey into a larger, more direct conflict. Simultaneously Moscow has continued to prop up the beleaguered Belarussian strongman Alexander Lukashenko since nation-wide protests erupted following the August 8th election. Without clear policies to negotiating successful resolutions to the diplomatic turmoil in former Soviet satellite states, Putin risks ceding Russian influence in former satellite states to other regional actors like the European Union, Turkey, or China.
Ultimately, political instability has been a feature of Kyrgyz politics since the fall of the Soviet Union and Russia’s political calculus suggests that the newest iteration of political turmoil in Kyrgyzstan will resolve itself. Further, based on historical precedent, if Sadyr Japarov can assert himself as the president, Kyrgyzstan’s regional neighbours will recognise Mr. Japarov’s interim government. We will not know the final outcome of the most recent protests until after new elections are held, but in the meantime, Mr. Japarov must find a path to a clear resolution. Until then one thing is clear: Sooronbay Jeenbekov’s three-year presidency has come to an end and Sadyr Japarov is no longer a prisoner, but a head of state.
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