The Rising Importance of Maritime Law in 2020: Issues of National Security
When discussing international law, it seems maritime law receives the role of the ugly step sister: being shoved into the corner leaving way for the sexier and more alluring topics of human rights, immigration, and freedom of speech. However, in the next year, maritime law will become arguably the most important sector of international regulations as issues spanning climate change, immigration, and fishing rights directly affect how countries produce reactionary national security policies.
Before making the argument that maritime law should be at the forefront of international discussion, a tactful aside needs to be made. It is important to note that the most important maritime doctrine, the United Nations Convention of Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), is a non-binding international treaty. This is problematic for a plethora of reasons. For one, it creates ambiguity. Due to the fact the treaty is not legally binding, few politicians or legal scholars have felt the need to fully interpret the provisions within the doctrine, weakening the incentive for countries to strictly adhere to the doctrine. This issue has been brushed off in the past, but with climate change, increasing international security tensions, and the upcoming United States presidential election, the fundamental issues of UNCLOS can no longer be ignored.
In order to show the topical significance of maritime law, this article will highlight three main transatlantic controversies to watch in the next year: the fight for the Northwest passage, increase of climate change refugees, and disputes in the South China Sea.
Northwest Passage
With the threat of climate change challenging the global community, undeniable maritime questions will need to be answered in the coming year. In North America, the Northwest Passage, which for centuries has been covered by ice, is beginning to melt. While Canada has claimed this territory as their own, with the European Union and many other international forces backing them, the Trump Administration has stated that the Northwest Passage is not strictly Canadian territory. As the Northwest Passage continues to melt, there is a potential for a trade war between Canada and the United States to erupt, facing off for control of the passage.
This adds another dimension of importance to the upcoming 2020 U.S Presidential Elections. While Trump has made it clear he is willing to fight for control of the Northwest Passage, other candidates such as Pete Buttigieg have taken a more amicable approach. Serving for seven months in Afghanistan as a lieutenant in the U.S Navy Reserve, Buttigieg has a sensitivity to maritime relations that the other candidates do not have, making him a prominent figure to watch and research in these upcoming elections. With the rise in maritime relevance, it seems almost imperative that the next leader of the U.S have a strong and competent understanding of maritime law.
Increase of Climate Change Refugees
As seen through the melting of the Northwest passage, a larger issue is brought into focus: the increasing threat of global warming. With more and more ice melting in the Artic each month, new trade routes arise from rising water levels. The European Union, U.S, and Russian have already declared a defensive stance in the race for territory. However, while the obvious disputes of fishing rights, trading routes, and national territory are acknowledged concerns, more subtle issues such that of climate change refugees need to be addressed. For example, states such as Hawaii and California will eventually be completely underwater. The millions of people living in these states will need to be relocated, moving nationally and internationally to seek refuge. In other words, in the next few years, there will be a major rise in immigration rates, creating a global ripple effect. Immigration policies will need to be reformed and reestablished, resources will need to be reallocated, and global governments will fundamentally rely on international maritime policies for direction.
South China Sea: Issues of Global Security
In the upcoming year, developments within the South China Sea will be given a spotlight of global attention. Almost 30% of the world’s maritime trade transits the South China Sea annually, including 1.2$ in ship-borne trade bound for the U.S. Beginning in 2016 and continuing into 2019, China has increasingly taken over more territory in the South China Sea. Violating UNCLOS, China has shot down two under water U.S drones. No U.S defensive action has been taken, and tensions are beginning to boil over. Trump has repeatedly asked to take action, and U.S Secretary of Defense James Mattis has publicly stated, “The U.S will continue to pursue a constructive, results-orientated relationship with China, cooperation whenever possible will be the name of the game and competing vigorously where we must course we recognise any sustainable Indo-Pacific order has a role for China.” Following Mattis’ statements, the Department of Defence have urged the military to take defensive action, as China will only increasingly take over territory. This past May, South China Sea relations hit a climatic point, surmounting on the seizure of a North Korea ship transporting coal. The UN banned the exporting of North Korean coal and the U.S, attempting to uphold the shambles of the UNCLOS treaty, seized the ship. Trump and the Department of Defence stressed the seizure of the ship had nothing to do with North Korean nuclear tests but was rather an issue of maritime relations. However, while the seizure of the ships might not have been in tandem with the possible missile testing, it should be noted that there is the potential for North Korea to transport nuclear missiles via ships, which could add a whole new layer to the current national security issues within the South China Sea.
In sum, maritime law is critical, compelling, and constant. It encompasses immigration policy, national security, and trade. Maritime law is slyly inserted in every topical conversation of 2020 and should therefore be attacked head on. As evidenced through the conflicts of the Northwest passage and the South China Sea, the international community is in need of a legally binding, and all-encompassing document to guide governments in the following years. International territories need to be defined, capitalised on, and governed. Action needs to be taken in the South China Sea whether reactionary or preventative. The clock is ticking and the tides are rising: UNCLOS is not a back burner issue, but the most germane transatlantic challenge of 2020.
