Why does the Left keep losing?: A structuralist view on the decline of Social Democracy in the West

The morning of the 13th December 2019 marked the fourth defeat in a row for the Labour Party. It was described as a night of ‘shocks’ and ‘surprises’. But a look at other Western social democratic parties might have made the election a little more predictable. Indeed, in almost every other Western democracy, social democratic parties have been torn apart, outflanked by more left-wing, centre-right and far-right parties. But then the key question, is why, in a time of economic stagnation and political disillusionment, does the Left keep losing? In Britain, much has been made of leadership, policy and Brexit. But these aren’t the reasons why social democracy is in decline all across the globe. Moving away from these more individualistic factors, perhaps by looking at societal
structures, a more accurate analysis can be derived. 

Social democratic parties have been based on coalitions between two primary voting groups. The first of these is metropolitan areas that are predominantly white-collar, socially liberal, internationalist and ethnically diverse. London, Berlin, Athens, Toronto, Paris and Bratislava. And the other is post-industrial areas that are still economically interventionist, but have moved rightwards socially, emphasising nationalism and isolationism. Examples of these include Labour’s former ‘Red Wall’, the Rhineland-Ruhr area, Detroit, Lille, Malmo and Charleroi. 

These groups, which were once united, are now divided. This former unity can be seen in the British 1997 election, in which Tony Blair’s ‘New Labour’ won seats in London and held
onto the ‘Red Wall’. In 1998, Gerhard Schroeder held on to Rhineland-Ruhr and Berlin. But across Western Europe, Social Democratic parties have declined by 20% since 1970. In Greece, the collapse of this coalition was so dramatic that it led to its own phrase, ‘Pasokification’. Benoit Hamon’s loss in the 2017 French presidential election was another example of ‘Pasokification’, he lagged behind the centrist Emmanuel Macron, the far-right Marine Le Pen, the far-left Melenchon and the centre-right Francois Fillon. Indeed, everywhere else social democracy is in power, they are based in
more proportional electoral systems, with lower bars for victory and defeat. 

So the question is, what changed? Why have these formerly politically aligned groups diverged so greatly from each other? Perhaps the single largest factor is the transformation of industrial areas to post-industrial areas. The embrace of economic neoliberalism by Western democracies in the last decades of the 20th century, most famously by the policies of Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan,
is a major cause of this. Neoliberalism is often a vague phrase thrown around by political punditry, but in the economic sense it is defined by deregulation, adoption of free trade agreements, privatisation and an emphasis on the power of markets. 

This led to a sharp uptick in free trade agreements, such as NAFTA and the European Single Market, subsequently leading to increased competition for manufactured goods and thus,
increased competition for jobs in manufacturing. Long-term unemployment shot up and, while some major industrial cities such as Manchester have recovered, many areas have not found a way to replace these jobs. This rise in unemployment led to disillusionment with government, immigration and with social democracy. Social democratic parties were stuck, while they have generally held on to their metropolitan areas, they have watched their former voters in now-post-industrial areas drift away to the centre-right, the far-left and the far-right. While the coalition held in the
first decade of the 21st century, they have largely been torn apart as we enter its third decade. 

But why are other parties winning? Why has the centre-right not been torn apart in a similar fashion? Well, it’s largely due to their voting base not being a coalition. Indeed, the centre-right’s voting base, with a few exceptions, has largely been ethnically white, middle class and socially conservative. This single bloc has traditionally been enough for parties to win on. Furthermore,
some have argued that the centre-right is much more politically malleable, with an unclear and changeable ideological base, making them able to adjust and tweak their policies to take into account differing voting groups. In contrast, social democratic parties are defined by their values, making it much more hard to pivot and change their policies in reaction to structural changes. 

So how can social democracy turn back the tide and return to power? Some have argued that the only way the centre-left can hold is to emphasise nationalism, such as the SNP in Scotland and the Junts Pel Si coalition in Catalonia.  In contrast, Matthew Goodwin argued that the left has struggled due to an lacking the political will and vocabulary to tack right socially. In contrast, the
centre-right has been much more willing to keep their social conservatism, but move leftwards economically, isolating social democracy from its traditional heartlands. As such, he argues, it requires a fundamental rethinking of how social democracy portrays itself on social issues. Indeed, this view that social democracies need to tack right socially, particularly on immigration, is
shared by many of the centre-left’s significant figures, such as Tony Blair, Hillary Clinton and Matteo Renzi. 

But perhaps an answer lies in looking not where social democracy has lost, but where it has won. Indeed a closer look at, Obama’s victories in 2008 and 2012, Justin Trudeau’s
landslide in 2015 and Jacinda Ardern’s unexpected victory in 2017 may be necessary. The common denominator in these successful campaigns has been the emphasis on the inspirational. Obama’s campaign motto was simply ‘Yes, we can”, New Zealand experienced ‘Jacindamania’ and Trudeau was the ‘Sweet Woke Bae Prince”. Even Labour’s surprise performance in 2017, seizing over 40% of the vote, while not resulting in a win, was at least partially an outcome of a effect”. In doing so, it was possible to transcend the seemingly unbridgeable difference in ideology between
metropolitan and post-industrial areas. Trudeau, shortly after his 2015 victory said, ‘we beat negative, divisive politics with a positive vision that brings Canadians together’. It’s a common victory speech, but in this case, it might be right. 

There are problems, however, with this approach. Being able to create inspirational campaigns is easier said than done. This type of campaign may also not be stable. While Obama won two convincing victories, Trudeau limped to a minority government in his re-election in 2019 and Ardern looks set to struggle in her upcoming election. Politics is a notoriously difficult arena for prediction. The next few years may see the decline of social democracy become terminal, or for its sudden resurgence. However, at least for now, social democracy is on the run, with no clear
avenues remaining.

Banner image courtesy of Laitche via Wikimedia,  ©2015, some rights reserved.