The Impact and Implications of the Recent Thai Protests

Thailand’s political institutions are facing mounting criticisms after months of protest. Drawing on other protest movements in Asia, such as in Hong Kong, it is possible that the opposition movement in Thailand will also alter the country’s political trajectory.

Last year’s March elections, the first since the military seized power in 2014, were seen as a turning point for Thailand after years of military rule. Yet, it has been the catalyst for a new wave of protests after the former army chief, Pryuth Chan-Ocha, who seized power in the 2014 coup, was appointed Prime Minister.

The Human rights watch claims that Thailand’s military government failed to enable a free and fair national election. The fact that the military appoints the 250-member Senate, who accounts for half the total number of votes in the elected House of Representatives, gives military elites an advantage before voting even begins. Pavin Chachavalpongpun, an associate professor of political science at the Center for Southeast Asian Studies at Kyoto University speaks to this point, saying that, “Thailand’s elections are designed for the prolongation of military rule.” This concern over the integrity of election results has led to a tense political environment, generating a climate where those who oppose the military-led government feel the need to challenge the government outside of the more conventional routes via protest.

The new wave of protests began in earnest in February 2020, when the pro-democracy Future Forward Party was forced to disband after the court ruled that a loan the FFP received from its leader was an illegal donation.  The party had gained the third-largest share of seats in the election and had popularity with younger voters. The controversial court ruling generated protests in the country, especially from those who viewed the ruling as an attempt to suppress opposing political movements.

So far, Prime Minister Pryuth Chan-Ocha has refused to give into demands for his resignation, and has threatened to use “all laws and articles” to take measures against pro-democracy protestors. This likely will include Thailand’s lese-majeste law, which forbids insults to the monarchy, and is viewed by critics of the government as a tool to limit free speech. In 2017, the United Nations Special Rapporteur on the Promotion of Freedom of Opinion and Expression, David Kaye, called on Thai authorities to stop using the law as a method of stifling critical speech.

Furthermore, while the first wave of protests was halted by Covid-19 restrictions, they were renewed in June after a prominent pro-democracy activist went missing. This activist, Wanchalearm Stasaksit, had been in exile in Cambodia since 2014, when he was taken off a street in Phnom Penh, and has not been seen since. The UN is currently pushing for answers to his disappearance, with limited success. Wanchalearm was affiliated with the United Front for Democracy Against Dictatorship, also known as the red shirts, when the 2014 military coup led by then-General Prayuth Chan-ocha (now Prime Minister) occurred. Wanchalearm fled the country, posting satirical pieces mocking the military junta from Cambodia, which led to the Thai authorities issuing a warrant for his arrest in 2018. Many activists believe that his abduction is linked to the palace. This is not a rare occurrence, as noted by Amnesty International, ‘Wanchalearm Satsaksit is among nine Thai activists who sought exile in neighbouring countries that have gone missing in recent years. Two of them are confirmed to have been killed’.   

The rising anti-government sentiment presents a challenge to the authority of both the military and monarchy in Thailand. The Free Youth Group, who have led many of the protests, have made three demands: for parliament to be dissolved, for the constitution to be rewritten, and for authorities to stop harassing critics. The significant changes to the country that these demands would entail, makes these protests so potentially significant, as it would alter the country’s political landscape.

On October 17th, tens of thousands of people joined multiple anti-government demonstrations across Bangkok and other parts of Thailand, which led to protestors taking over two of Bangkok’s main transport hubs the next day. The fact that the momentum of these protests has sustained over several months means that they have the potential to greatly impact how the country is run.

The protests in Thailand also point to a rising movement of student activism in East Asia. Though their specific demands may be different youth activists in Thailand, Taiwan and Hong Kong, have seen commonality in their existential battle between democracy and dictatorship. For Hongkongers this is seen via their resistance to Chinese Communist Party (CCP) interference in the semi-autonomous region. Likewise, Taiwan fears the threat of Chinese invasion and manipulation of its politics. Finally, Thailand’s pro-democracy protests underpin reform of the military-backed government and monarchy. This has led to activists from the three countries joining forces in a so-called “Milk Tea Alliance”, a loose transnational network of youth who are involved in similar fights against authoritarianism. Moreover, the supporters of this movement view it as a way of generating further momentum for the protests in each state. “We are connected via these common dreams,” says Netiwit Chotiphatphaisal, a prominent Thai activist, “It (the Milk Tea Alliance) empowers us to have more energy to fight.”

The protests in Thailand have the potential to radically alter the country’s political landscape. The utilisation of social media, rise of youth activism, and fundamental alteration of discourses on the military-backed government and monarchy, have seen the protests foster a new platform for great reform. The fact that the protests have also seen significant international, as well as domestic attention, further suggests that the protests could leave a lasting effect on the country, whether or not their demands are eventually met. Overall, the protests have drastically altered Thailand’s modern political discourse and have created space for future change.