The Poisoning of Alexei Navalny: NATO, U.S., and Germany Cede Revisionism to Pragmatism
Alexei Navalny is a threat to the Kremlin.
Navalny is a long-time anti-corruption champion and Putin critic. He is becoming increasingly known for his large and ever-growing clout on social media, where his 2.2 million Instagram followers are treated to a steady stream of sharp, and often politically charged, posts. Navalny is a force that the Kremlin struggles to control. Putin has never publicly referred to his opponent by name, and the Kremlin only recently acknowledged his existence on their website.
After the world received confirmation that Navalny was poisoned with the Soviet-era nerve agent Novichok, one would have expected a strong response from the international community. Germany was one of the first countries to react, where Chancellor, and de facto leader of the European Union, Angela Merkel stated that there was unequivocal evidence that Navalny was poisoned by Novichok, and demanded answers from Russia. NATO reacted similarly, both confirming the Novichok use and imploring Russian cooperation. President Trump refused to condemn Russia but called the poisoning “Tragic”. From these responses, it seems that the suspected Russian assassination attempt has, and will be met with all bark and no bite from the world's most powerful countries and IGOs.
Throughout the last decade, Putin has been given a consistent message from the international community: he will not be held accountable for playing by his own rules. It seems that now, in a time where the United States is destabilized by a polarizing president, China is reordering the global system of economic power, and Europe is divided by issues of immigration and Brexit; a strong message to Russia is more vital than ever. So, why has no response come?
The relationship between the United States and Russia has never been more complex than during the Trump presidency. This saga began in 2016 when Russia meddled with the Presidential election. Trump continued to downplay and disregard the possible hacking, and even ignored the advice of his intelligence agencies and took Putin’s word that Russia was not involved. The United States has since sanctioned Russia for hacking the election, just as they did for the country’s invasion of Ukraine. In summation, it is clear that Trump remains friendly and cooperative with Russia, and that sanctions will be the consequence for misconduct.
Germany also maintains an influential position in the debate as the head of the EU. Despite being the country that treated and protected Navalny as he recovered from the poisoning, Germany is yet to take decisive action. One might have thought that Germany would have been quicker to fight back, considering that Russia is suspected of the 2019 assassination of a Chechen separatist fighter that took place in Berlin. But Chancellor Merkel called for collective action from Europe rather than from Germany alone. This decision might have come because Germany has some extra skin in the game, as the construction of the Nord Stream II pipeline is still underway. The $11 billion (£8.5 billion) natural-gas pipeline that would stretch from St. Petersburg to Berlin is criticized by western countries as a Russian branch of influence. Still, Merkel defends the pipeline, saying that business and politics should remain separate.
In early September, NATO said that the poisoning appears to be a violation of international law that requires an international response, but have refused to say what that response might be. It is now early October and NATO has yet to deliver any progress on the situation.
Confusion and apprehension seem to summarize the situation to a tee. Germany calls for a response from Europe, yet, despite being the head of the EU, they faithfully continue the construction of the pipeline from Russia. President Trump continues to praise Putin and the country is distracted by the upcoming election, pandemic, and political unrest. NATO and other international organizations only have enough evidence to loom threats and demand answers. The disoriented international response allows Putin to proceed with business as usual: without fear of retribution.
Currently, Russia is invested in a conflict in Armenia, disputed election in Belarus, and most recent manipulation of the upcoming US election, and more. After being suspected of attempting to assassinate the leader of the country’s opposition party and only facing a slap on the wrist from the international community, Putin may also be emboldened to take even more risks as he seeks to maintain his presidency and grow Russia’s influence.
Without taking immediate action, the world is in danger of facing an overconfident and opportunistic Putin that knows he will not have to face the consequences any time soon when it comes to breaking international rules.
Image Courtesy of Пресс-служба Президента Российской Федерации www.kremlin.ru via Wikimedia, @2017, some rights reserved
