The Syrian Earthquake: A Boon for Bashar al-Assad’s Legitimisation
The 7.8 magnitude earthquake that rocked Turkey and Syria on 6 February 2023 shook the world with the scale of its destruction. Within one week, the death toll had climbed above 24,000. Two weeks after the earthquake, the death toll in Turkey and Syria had surpassed 50,000. On top of this were over 5 million displaced people, including 850,000 children. Over a month later, the true scale of devastation is still being unveiled.
The earthquake was especially devastating as it hit a population already suffering from over a decade of war. Starting in 2011 and still ongoing, the Syrian civil war has been fought between the Syrian Arab Republic, led by Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, and rebel forces.. Raging on for over a decade, the war has had dire economic and humanitarian consequences for the Syrian people. Prior to the earthquake, clean water, sanitation, electricity, heating, and health care were scarce. Syrians suffered from a fuel crisis, cholera outbreaks, and food insecurity. In northwest Syria, where the earthquake hit particularly hard, 4.1 million people, including 2.7 million internally displaced people, were reliant upon humanitarian aid. The earthquake only increased this number.
In the face of such loss, suffering, and destruction, aid delivery has been painfully slow. Although there has been some progress in the past few weeks, it has been too little, too late. The delay in aid delivery was largely a result of Assad’s concern for political status over human life.
Relief efforts were delayed in part due to the existence of only one recognised border crossing into Syria’s rebel-controlled Idlib province, called Bab al-Hawa. Efforts to open additional crossings were vetoed by Russia and China, who claimed that the opening of other crossings would undermine Syria’s sovereignty. The recognition of this sole crossing became an issue during the earthquake, as the UN could not access it due to infrastructural problems. This severely stalled search and rescue operations as well as humanitarian relief efforts, further adding to the death toll.
On 13 February, a week after the earthquake, Assad agreed to open two additional border crossings, Al Bab al-Salam and Al Ra’ee to allow in more humanitarian aid. The crossings are open for an initial three months for the purpose of delivering humanitarian aid. This change, however, is only temporary and is therefore largely insufficient.
In agreeing to open these crossings, Assad’s motivations were political rather than humanitarian. The situation shed light on the fact that the UN was unwilling to take any action without having Assad’s permission. This gives Assad a sense of legitimacy, as it gives the impression that he holds the power to constrain the actions of the UN. It also puts Assad in a position of power, as he may be inclined to ask for more in exchange for allowing the opening of the crossings.
By allowing aid delivery to be dictated by Assad, the UN has played a part in the politicisation and hampering of aid. Critics have argued that in certain situations, such as when a leader is deliberately blocking assistance to parts of its population, international organisations may intervene without the permission of a government. The UN’s refusal to do so not only left earthquake survivors without aid for a longer period of time, but also reaffirmed the sovereignty and legitimacy of Assad, who manipulated the tragedy to boost his own political position.
In the aftermath of the earthquake, humanitarian relief efforts were also hindered by Assad’s diversion of aid. In the past, Assad has repeatedly diverted aid to his supporters in government-controlled areas and has prevented aid from reaching rebel-controlled areas. Though this itself hindered aid delivery, this was further complicated by the refusal of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an anti-government group linked to al-Qaeda which controls aportion of northwest Syria including Idlib, to accept any aid that was sent through Damascus. Following the earthquake, the group blocked a convoy with UN aid which passed through a government-controlled area and sent it back, further hampering aid from reaching the most heavily impacted regions of northwest Syria.Assad’s personal position was boosted immensely as a result of the earthquake. Assad used the earthquake as a means to rehabilitate himself and rekindle ties with the Arab world. Though he has been widely isolated since the beginning of the civil war, he received calls and aid from global leaders following the disaster. These leaders have included not only his allies, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, but also those who opposed him. The day after the earthquake, Assad received a call from his Egyptian counterpart offering support, which was the first exchange with the country since Abdel Fattah al-Sisi became president in 2014. The ruler of Bahrain was also in communication with Assad, marking their first official conversation in over a decade. Saudi Arabia, which cut ties with Assad in 2012 and had supported Syrian rebels, offered support and aid to both government-controlled and rebel-controlled regions. In the weeks following the earthquake, Syria has received large numbers of aircrafts carrying aid from countries such as Iran, Iraq, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.
Assad aims to benefit from the international aid being sent to Syria. He hopes that by encouraging the US and other Western countries to amend sanctions and allow increased financial transactions, they will open up more politically towards Assad. He also hopes that by sustaining diplomatic engagement with his Arab counterparts beyond the immediate crisis, he can re-claim Syria’s, and ultimately his, position in the region.
Ultimately, Assad has manipulated the earthquake and the resulting human tragedy to serve his own political agenda. He has used it to boost his position and legitimacy within the UN and the world more generally, to strengthen his hold over power domestically, and to improve his standing in the Arab world.
Given the state of Syria under Assad, there is a pressing need for sustained diplomatic efforts to move past the devastation left behind by the earthquake. In doing so, there must be a strong emphasis on the de-politicisation of aid. The international community must not consider politics, but humanitarian ideals when pressing for humanitarian aid and support. Every effort must be made on the part of governments, institutions, organisations, and individuals to help Syrians affected by the earthquake, while simultaneously ensuring that Assad is not so easily welcomed back into the international community.
Image courtesy of Humas Basarnas via Wikimedia Commons, ©2023, some rights reserved.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.
