Public Opinion and Weakened Rhetoric: the Changeable Positions of Anti-Choice Candidates in post-Roe United States Elections

In June 2022, the United States Supreme Court declared that the right to an abortion was not fundamental, taking away a human right from millions of Americans.

Before this decision, Democrats’ path to victory in the 2022 elections looked uncertain at best. One June 2022 poll gave Democrats a 45% chance of winning a Senate majority and a 10% chance of winning the House. Today, Democrats have an 81% chance of winning the Senate and a 33% chance of winning the House. Much of this success has to do with Republicans’ extreme anti-abortion positions, and Democrats forcing the abortion debate to the forefront of national consciousness.

Roe v. Wade was a 1973 landmark Supreme Court case that guaranteed the right to an abortion anywhere in the United States up to the end of the first trimester of pregnancy, with certain restrictions allowed during the second trimester. When it was overturned by the Supreme Court in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Clinic, that right was taken away- and many people were left with no access to abortion or other essential medical care as states began enacting abortion bans.

Thirteen states had so-called ‘trigger laws’, which immediately prohibited abortion after Roe was overturned. Since then, many more states have joined them. Currently, fourteen states have instituted total bans on abortions, four states have banned some abortions, and eight states have proposed bans and had them blocked. As of August 2022, more than one in three women were blocked from receiving essential healthcare, with more bans being proposed and considered around the country.

Because Roe was a Supreme Court case, it was never formally voted on in Congress. However, abortion still became an incredibly prominent political talking point, with many conservative politicians stating that they would support banning all abortions if elected to office, including those in cases of rape or incest.

Though this position has been both long-held and long-espoused by conservative groups, it has proven unpopular with voters. Pre-Dobbs, one Wall Street Journal poll stated that 55% of abortions should be legal in ‘all or most cases’, and a 2019 Marist poll stated that 77% of Americans did not want the Supreme Court to overturn Roe. Since June, support for legal abortion has risen; the same poll showed support for abortion in all or most cases at 60% in September 2022.

As the conversation around abortion has shifted from hypothetical to real, many people have come to understand its importance as a personal healthcare service and a fundamental right. Many states have passed laws banning abortions in cases of rape, incest, or where a foetal anomaly has made the pregnancy inviable. Women have also been unable to receive care for potentially fatal pregnancy complications, forcing them to wait until they are septic or close to death before being treated. This hard look at the reality of abortion bans that many pregnant women are facing has mobilised the voters-- and may prove a winning issue for Democrats. Since June 2022, two special elections have pointed towards pro-choice policies and campaigns winning elections.

One such election took place in Kansas, which has overwhelming Republican majorities in its state Congress. However, the Kansas Supreme Court ruled in 2019 that abortion is a protected right under the state constitution. Therefore, the court needed to hold a referendum and add a constitutional amendment, the ‘Value Them Both’ campaign, in order to later ban or restrict abortion.

Many believed this would be a close election and a bellwether of results to come in the November 2022 midterms. The election did not end up being close at all; not only did abortion remain legal with 59% of the vote, but the election saw a record number of citizens registering and voting for the first time in a normally ill-attended primary.

Pro-choice groups immediately started lauding the referendum result as a sign of positive change and hope for the upcoming midterms. Organizations made the situation transparent, with Emily’s List President Laphonza Butler stating that ‘abortion is on the ballot across the country in November’ and voters would need to vote Democrat in order to keep abortion legal. Similarly, President Biden said that the Kansas referendum made ‘clear what we know: the majority of Americans agree that women should have access to abortion.’

Also in early August 2022, Democrat Pat Ryan ran on a pro-choice platform in a New York swing district special election. His opponent, Republican Marc Molinaro, avoided questions of his extreme anti-abortion positions and instead tried to focus on crime and inflation. Ryan defeated Molinaro by a slim margin, showing many Democrats that as long as they could campaign for protecting abortion rights, they may have a greater chance of winning contested elections.

Many Democratic candidates have decided to embrace this strategy by focusing heavily on their past support for abortion and highlighting the extreme anti-abortion positions that many Republican candidates have previously (loudly and boldly) declared. Meanwhile, many Republicans are left attempting to roll back their previous statements.

In Arizona, Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters previously had stated his support for a constitutional amendment that recognises foetuses as ‘unborn babies’ that cannot be killed and called himself ‘100% pro-life’. Now, his website has been cleared of these stances; he later released a video saying he supported ‘common-sense’ measures such as banning ‘very late-term and partial-birth abortions’.

Republican candidate Amanda Adkins is running in Kansas’ 3rd congressional district, in a state that just voted overwhelmingly to keep abortion legal. As chairwoman of the Kansas Republican Party, she had previously supported adding a Human Life Amendment to the United States Constitution. However, she later penned an op-ed stating that she did not support any ‘federal policymaking related to contraception or fertility’. Adkins’ campaign then tried to downplay her previous stances on abortion, refusing to respond to comment requests and dodging questions in podcast interviews.

With views so out-of-touch with those of potential voters, it is not surprising that many Republicans have attempted to distance themselves from past extreme anti-abortion positions. Democrats have not let their past comments go unanswered, however, spending an estimated $124 million (£116,420,446) on ads concerning abortion, more than twice the amount spent on their next top issue.

Democrats have a tremendously difficult path to actually codifying abortion rights. Nevertheless, many are promising they will achieve this goal and restore this fundamental right to millions across the United States. The influx of ad money, fundraising texts, and tweets highlighting Democratic candidates’ pro-choice positions has left many wondering: will abortion ever actually be fully protected, or will politicians only keep voicing their support for abortion rights as long as it wins elections?

Image courtesy of Lorie Shaull via Flickr, ©2019, some rights reserved.

The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the wider St. Andrews Foreign Affairs Review team.